Tim Cook might be busy embracing vision and innovation, but Wall Street appears to be more focused on technical resistance and trendlines. With Apple stocks in the air just below $200 like an overachiever suffering from jitters, the stock finds itself ingrained in a tug of war between cautious investors and some quietly confident ones.

Apple’s most recent effort to recover has slowed down once again, as the stock closed at $196.99 on Monday. Apple had risen early in April but has been unable to take the higher ground since then, again and again bumping against a descending trendline that has hindered the stock’s gain since reaching its March highs near $220 level. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently placed at $198.42, has acted as a resistance, further reassuring that the bearish sentiment among tech investors prevails over an already cautious tech sector.

Loss of Momentum

Technical analysis is showing signs of caution. Apple is active below all the major EMAs on the 4-hour chart, with the 50 EMA at $206.58 and the 200 EMA at $222.60. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifted down to 46.64, below neutral, and the index was not able to maintain recent recovery from an oversold position. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to constrict, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading.

Beneath all these, the uncertainty keeps growing as Bollinger Bands tighten around the midline near $192.36 for a possible volatility squeeze. A decisive move beneath may expose Apple to much more downside, with the next most likely level of support at $185.

A Signal of Caution

Apple seems to struggle a lot these days, but has been able to catch support in the area of $192-$194, just about every time it traded down. Now, that support level looks increasingly fragile. A move below $193.64 would probably indicate further declines towards $188.50 and, possibly down to $183. In contrast, resistance remains solid between $198 and $200, which also aligns with the upper band of Keltner Channel.

In general, the short-term outlook is cautiously bearish until Apple makes a strong break above $200, with a supported volume, and an RSI above 55. Otherwise, expect the stock to go in a very tight range between $199 resistance and $193.50 support, as the market waits for a clear directional break to take place.