Tesla has defied gravity and expectations for a long time by innovative technology, along with an attractive branding, but even iconic brands cannot survive on hype. If it were to ever again become a simpler market darling, Tesla would need more than promises of robotaxis and vague timetables. Tesla finds itself under pressure, as it is expected to come out with the first quarterly earnings report this April 22, which is being anticipated by Wall Street analysts. With stock down more than 40% year-to-date, the EV Company that once represented stronghold tech momentum now feels dismal gravity pulling it down due to disappointing delivery numbers, slower growth, and controversy surrounding CEO Elon Musk.

Lately, the company has delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, which was a decline by 13 % from the previous year and the greatest quarterly decline recorded so far. About 40,000 vehicles were still short of what was expected by Wall Street, this further worsened fears regarding demand weakening and operational headwinds. Tesla’s shares dipped 4.3% last week and underperformed against a broader S&P 500 that fell by 1.5%. Out of the past 13 weeks, the stock has now marked a decline for the 11th time.

Earnings Outlook Deteriorates

Earnings expectations have now been set lower, with analysts now pulling back on estimates. Analysts earnings forecasts to $0.43 per share for Q1, a 4% decline from year-over-year, and revenue of $21.45 billion, with an increase of merely 0.7%. With Tesla missing the consensus estimate for earnings in five out of the last nine quarters, investor confidence is currently wobbling.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy reduced his price target from $325 to $275 and maintained a hold rating on stock, with “confusing” fundamentals and apparently ongoing production inefficiencies. Levy also foresees a further decline in deliveries during 2025, which will increase the burden on the company in the immediate term. BNP Paribas analyst Stuart Pearson took a thoughtful approach on the company by cutting his price target from $150 to $137 and kept a Sell rating. He mentioned several risks such as reduced emissions credit sales, rising input costs because of tariffs, and uncertainty about the retention of EV tax incentives. He also reduced his earnings by a significant 38%, for 2026 for Tesla due to a tougher macro and regulatory environment.

Obscured Tesla’s Trajectory

Such erosion in sales has forced investors to ask whether it is a result of operational transitions, such as the recent Model Y refresh, or external factors, like Musk’s controversial political activity. Speculations that public sentiment might be hurting demand have also been fueled by demonstrations at Tesla outlets. Tariffs on parts and materials might also be influencing the cost structure of Tesla, although it is really hard to figure out the full effect in such cases.

Wall Street’s forecast for Tesla deliveries in 2025 has recently been cut back from 2.1 million units to something near 1.8 million, entirely in line with 2023-2024 levels but considerably far from where Tesla expected growth would take it.

New Possibilities Emergence

Despite widespread concern, Tesla still has potential catalysts. The company is set to launch its much awaited robotaxi service in June and is expected to produce a cheaper model sometime later in 2025. If these targets are met, both of these catalysts would work toward resetting investor expectations and building demand.

On another note, analysts would rather place in the better end of optimistic expectations. As per data by TipRanks, the Consensus rating of Hold for Tesla comes from 16 Buy, 11 Hold, and 12 Sell recommendations. The average price target now stands at sizzling heights of $298.38, which is equivalent to a 23.6% advantage from current valuations. Tesla’s delivery count in Q1 was greatly dominated by contributions of the most popular vehicles, Model 3 and Model Y, which posted 324,000 new shipments plus 12,900 from other model types including Cybertruck.

Eyes on April 22

Tesla’s Q1 earnings report will be a decisive moment for the investors who want to be enlightened about the current outlook. Analysts and shareholders will look for any updates regarding delivery guidance for the rest of the year, production ramp-up of new models, possible influences of some geopolitical factors and regulatory changes, and progress made towards autonomous vehicle initiatives.

The average price target of Tesla is now resting around $327 per share, which is lower than a peak of $381 in February, which undoubtedly shows a change in market sentiment. Whether or not Tesla can once again spark interest among investors will largely depend on how strongly it can confront the present uncertainties surrounding its business.