Is the PC really dying?

When Mark Dean, CTO of IBM Middle East and Africa, declared this morning that we are in the “Post-PC Era”, a tinge of frustration and anger popped up in me. Items that are used daily in millions of households across the world don’t simply die. I was annoyed when IBM CEO Lou Gerstner declared that “The PC is dead” in 1999. I was annoyed when they made the same claim in 2005 when they sold their personal computing division to Lenova. I was annoyed this morning when I read it again.

Then, I realized something: they may be right this time.

The younger generations Y and Z – 10-30 years old or whatever those boundaries may be – do not use PCs in general. Some have them for gaming, an industry that demands more power than most laptops can offer. Most simply don’t. The have laptops. They have smartphones. They have tablets. Their technological world is growing, but the devices are getting smaller.

Could Dean actually be correct? The more I think about it, the more I realize that the people who use PCs that I know of are all older. I haven’t touched one in 2 years. My son has one for gaming, but it’s the lone-PC in a household of 7 laptops, 5 smartphones, and an iPad 2. I don’t jump the gun and declare anything the “next big thing” prematurely, nor do I jump the gun and declare any technology old or obsolete until the signs are clear.

Are the signs clear now? Is the PC replaceable? Are laptops, smartphones, and tablets large enough and powerful enough to make the big box computers unnecessary?

Why they will live

This was much harder to think about than I thought. We already mentioned the gaming aspect, but even as I hit Skype and ask some opinionated tech people what makes the PC sustainable, few had good answers. Here’s what we came up with:

• Greater storage
• Less expensive
• Harder to steal (not a great reason, but valid nonetheless)
• Bigger/more monitors
• Strong CPU/RAM for certain professions that require heavy-duty programs

That was pretty much it.

Why they will die

The list was relatively large, but it really came down to convenience. People don’t simply sit at their desk all day as much as they used to. The most innovative companies and worklplaces such as Apple, Google, and Facebook encourage laptop and smaller device use. They want their employees to be mobile within and outside of the office.

In a world that is very saturated (and getting more so every day) with WiFi and 3G/4G broadband, having the ability to roam around the house, over to Starbucks, or riding in a vehicle is pushing us away from the PC more often than not.

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When thinking about whether or not the PC is on it’s last leg, I’m leaning towards “yes” but I would like some input. What do you think?