QuantumScape is a company that aims to change how electric vehicles store energy by developing next-generation solid-state lithium-metal batteries. Recent advances and strategic partnerships make its progress relevant not just for investors but for the EV industry more broadly.
Questions about range, charging time, safety, and cost have long held back wider electric vehicle adoption. QuantumScape’s success or failure in scaling solid-state batteries could influence whether EVs become more practical and mainstream.
With its QSE-5 battery technology now moving from lab prototypes toward industrialization, QuantumScape’s actions over the next few years may determine whether it becomes a leader in this emerging field or falls behind competitors.
The coming decade will test its ability to execute, commercialize, and maintain financial stability. This article examines where QuantumScape stands now in terms of technology, funding, partnerships, and how those elements might shape its trajectory over ten years.
QuantumScape Today: Technology, Funding & Positioning
QuantumScape’s core technology is its solid-state lithium-metal battery platform, featuring a proprietary ceramic separator that enables use of a pure lithium metal anode. This design is intended to provide higher energy density, faster charging, and improved safety over conventional lithium-ion batteries.
The company’s QSE-5 battery cell is its next commercial product. It has been tested in prototype and small-volume “B-samples,” and is being refined with improved manufacturing processes. A new step called the “Cobra” separator process was taken into baseline production in mid-2025, reportedly achieving a heat-treatment speed about 25 times faster than the prior “Raptor” process and needing less factory space.
Strategic partnerships are central to QuantumScape’s positioning in the market. Its licensing and collaboration deal with PowerCo SE, the Volkswagen Group’s battery company, allows PowerCo to produce up to 40 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year using QuantumScape’s technology, with an option to expand to 80 GWh.
In July 2025 QuantumScape and PowerCo expanded their agreement, securing up to USD 131 million in additional funding over two years, contingent on meeting technical and operational milestones.
On the financial side, QuantumScape remains a pre-revenue company. It reported about USD 860.3 million in liquidity at the end of Q1 2025. The company projects that this cash will allow operations into at least the second half of 2028.
QuantumScape faces technical and execution challenges. Scaling production from prototypes to mass-manufacturing is difficult. Ceramic separators are hard to produce consistently at scale. Costs and yield rates will need improvement. Regulatory, supply chain, and competitive pressures are also important. Yet early demonstrations have been promising.
One recent live demonstration used a Ducati motorcycle powered by QSE-5 battery cells produced with the Cobra process at the IAA Mobility event, showing that solid-state battery tech is moving closer to real-world applications.
Growth Catalysts & Positive Drivers (2025 – 2030)
A number of developments give QuantumScape a clearer path to commercial relevance over the next five years. One major driver is the expansion of its industrial partnerships.
In 2025, the company announced a cooperation with Murata to scale ceramic battery components, which led to a stock increase of over 7 percent. This collaboration focuses on augmenting production of separators that are critical to its lithium-metal design.
Similarly, in late September 2025, QuantumScape formed a partnership with Corning to improve ceramic separator technology. That news triggered a gain of more than 12 percent in its share price and demonstrated that the company is looking to bring in materials-industry expertise to help solve manufacturing challenges.
Another key catalyst is growth in the overall solid-state battery market. Some forecasts suggest the market could grow at a compound annual rate of 56.6% between 2025 and 2030, which would provide ample demand if QuantumScape can scale.
Within the company, the ramping of its “Cobra” separator process remains central. This method has been integrated into baseline production and is reportedly about 25 times faster in heat treatment than its prior “Raptor” approach. That improvement may lower costs and boost throughput for future manufacturing lines.
The licensing deal with Volkswagen’s PowerCo also provides a structural backbone. PowerCo retains rights to produce up to 40 GWh per year (expandable to 80 GWh), creating a defined potential customer for QuantumScape’s technology if it meets performance and reliability milestones.
Other potential tailwinds include licensing and spin-off revenue, adoption by smaller EV manufacturers or specialty vehicle makers, and ancillary markets such as grid storage or aviation, should the technology prove adaptable.
In sum, QuantumScape is building a web of partnerships, improving its internal processes, and positioning itself in a fast-growing market. If it executes, these catalysts may propel it closer to mass adoption by 2030.
Risks, Headwinds & Competitive Threats
While the upside is significant, risks and obstacles remain quite large. One of the biggest is technical scale-up. QuantumScape must transition from small-scale prototypes to reliable mass manufacturing. In practice, producing consistent ceramic separators, ensuring yields, and reducing defects are complex tasks.
Cost pressures also loom. Even with a faster process, early production will likely carry high per-unit costs that need to decline steeply before widespread adoption becomes viable. Margin compression threatens to limit profitability in early phases.
Competition is intense. Other firms such as Solid Power, Toyota, BYD, and various startups are also investing in solid-state or hybrid battery architectures. Some of these competitors may reach the market earlier or with lower capital burdens. In a recent analysis, critics pointed out that despite technical gains, QuantumScape still has not generated meaningful revenue.
Financial risk is also material. The company may need to issue new shares if it cannot hit milestones fast enough, causing dilution to existing holders. Its projections hinge on meeting ambitious targets for durability, life cycle, and cost.
Market and regulatory shifts could be adverse. If EV incentives change, raw material costs rise, or supply chains fail, the backdrop becomes tougher. Finally, even breakthroughs do not guarantee adoption, automakers must validate safety, longevity, and cost advantages before committing to new battery architectures.
Overall, the risks along the path to commercialization are steep. Observers will watch whether the company can consistently cross those hurdles before judging its prospects over a full decade.
10-Year Outlook
Projecting QuantumScape’s stock in 2035 is inherently speculative. Nonetheless, several distinct scenarios help frame possible outcomes.
If QuantumScape manages to ramp to gigawatt-scale production by the early 2030s, secures multiple OEM customers, and gradually improves margins, it might reach billions in annual revenue. Assuming a 10× sales multiple (not unreasonable for advanced tech in growth mode) and a mid-single digit net margin, the implied valuation might land in the tens of billions of dollars. That could correspond to 5× to 10× current equity value, depending on dilution and market conditions.
In the best case, QuantumScape becomes a core supplier or licensor to several automakers, scales profitably, and captures a meaningful share of the solid-state battery market. In that scenario, revenues could surpass $20 – 30 billion by 2035, and valuation multiples (EV/revenue or P/S) might stretch to 15× or more. That path could justify 10× to 20× or more growth in share price (assuming no catastrophic dilution).
If the company fails to scale reliably, or rivals reach the market first with better cost structures, QuantumScape may struggle to justify a high valuation. Dilution, cash burn, or margin collapse could leave equity returns flat or negative. In the worst outcome, it might be confined to a niche role or be acquired at a modest multiple.
These projections are highly dependent on growth rates, margins, capital structure, and multiple compression. A modest shift in any assumption (for example, margins 2 pp lower, or multiple 5× instead of 10×) can swing outcomes widely. Given how early QuantumScape is in commercialization, the range of plausible outcomes is broad.
Conclusion & Takeaways
QuantumScape remains a high-variance opportunity. Its recent milestones, including integrating the Cobra process into baseline production and forging partnerships, boost credibility. But success depends on flawless execution, margin improvements, and market timing.
Over ten years, outcomes could range from deep gains to disappointment. The key things to watch are production yields, cost per cell, customer adoption, and how rivals fare in the race.
