While the numbers of EV sales are not doing much in the background, Wall Street is already celebrating Tesla’s aspirations for robotaxis and is pushing the stock price closer and closer to $490. It is the same old story with Tesla, where it gives up the present, takes the future, and waits for autonomy to come before reality does.

For the time being, investors are of the view that it will be AI and not electric vehicles that will be the reason behind the next raise in Tesla’s valuation.

Market Snapshot

The stock of Tesla is again challenging the conviction of investors as the shares are just below the $490 mark and therefore are very close to the highest price ever reached. In the last 24 hours, Tesla has gained more than 3% as of December 17, which reflects the renewed interest which has nothing to do with car sales and everything to do with autonomy.

Intraday trading has been considered volatile, but has clearly been bullish, and there has been strong buying after each dip. For the market, Tesla is not just an EV story anymore, instead it is increasingly valued as a platform for artificial intelligence and robotics.

This price increase corresponds with a period in which the top tech companies are showing signs of exhaustion, which makes the relative strength of Tesla stand out even more.

The stock’s ability to rise in spite of the falling demand for EVs indicates that the investors are looking far beyond the short-term fundamentals and are ready to take the risk of a longer and more speculative horizon.

Critical Inflection Point

From a technical aspect, Tesla’s setup is still very positive. The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows since the end of Q4 2025, which is a trend that usually indicates institutional accumulation rather than speculation by retail investors.

The ranges of support around $405-410 and $450-460 have been convincing, which indicates that buyers are getting in at higher and higher levels, thus increasing the market’s confidence.

Also, the movement of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day MA, which is called a golden cross, is a strong signal for the bulls. Generally, this signal is followed by a rise in momentum-driven stocks that can last for weeks or even months.

On the other hand, the RSI, which is in its high 60s, is a sign of very strong momentum that is not yet in the extreme overbought zone. The $500 level is now a major battleground for both psychological and technical reasons. If there is a smooth breakout above it, it could soon bring in trend following funds and algorithmic trading as buyers.

Robotaxis are Driving the Rally

One thing that makes this rally outstanding and probably not so stable is the absence of strong EV fundamentals. Tesla’s main vehicle business is still suffering from global demand slowdowns, growing competition, and price cuts.

Nevertheless, the market seems to be indifferent to these factors at the moment. Investors are considering Tesla’s robotaxi dreams. There has been a clear change in the narrative from cars to self-driving, with Musk’s longstanding promise of complete driverless transport now being the main focus again.

The market basically sees this as a bet that the future of robotaxis could transform Tesla into a recurring-revenue platform that gets its spirit from a software company rather than an automaker. If the transformation happens, it would be a basis for such high valuations that traditional EV metrics could not sustain.

This is the reason behind Tesla stock being able to go up even when the deliveries are disappointing. Under the present market conditions, less certain but promising technologies such as AI and autonomy are being more rewardingly than the proven but slow-growing businesses in the past.

Regulatory Winds Shift in Tesla’s Favor

The other windfall that is supporting the rally is the regulatory relief. The regulators from California have postponed a proposed sale that is connected to Full Self-Driving marketing claims, thus removing a risk that discouraged the investors.

This is not the end of Tesla’s troubles with regulators, but it is a breathing space and time is a valuable asset in terms of the future potential, which the investors are ready to pay for.

What Could Break or Extend the Rally

Tesla’s future actions depend on the ability to keep the narrative going with real incidents. In another scenario, the stock may move between $475 and $540 through the next weeks, while investors are taking their profits and waiting for news about autonomy.

A consistent rise above $500 would probably lead to buying that is based on momentum, and allow the market to move into the mid-$500s.

On one hand, the announcement of the first robotaxi deployment or wider regulatory acceptance could allow Tesla to reach the $580-$600 area. On the other hand, poor Q4 delivery numbers, increased regulatory scrutiny or delay in the autonomy timelines could lead to a steep fall, particularly because of Tesla’s high valuation and crowded positions.

Hype Meets Execution

Tesla’s climb to $490 focuses on a more fundamental reality about the current markets, where narratives outpace the facts. Investors are no longer looking at Tesla from a present sales point of view, but from a future potential one. The robotaxi concept has reinstated the faith in Tesla as a revolutionary tech company, and not just an EV manufacturer.

However, faith in itself will not be an infinite support to this rally. The combination of execution, scalability, and regulatory approval will finally decide if Tesla produces its premium or loses it. For now, the market is betting that Tesla’s future lies less in selling cars and more in redefining mobility itself.