At one point in time, Tesla’s delivery statistics were treated as quarterly report cards, which were dissected word by word, and could either cause the stock to go up or down in a matter of minutes. Nowadays, the market appears to be less concerned about how many cars Tesla sells and are more curious to know what the company is going to be like in the future.
The deliveries still play an important role, but they are no longer the main topic they used to be, as the investors started to focus on things like robotaxi, AI, and humanoid robots. For Tesla, the future seems to be more about how far the company can extend its long-term vision than about how many vehicles it can ultimately produce.
Deliveries Still Affect the Stock, but Not as Strongly as Before
UBS predicts that Tesla will deliver around 415,000 vehicles this quarter, which is a 16% decrease from the previous year and is not reaching the entire market’s anticipated level. In the past, a miss of such magnitude would have caused a sudden and drastic reaction in the stock.
Although the delivery figures are still affecting short-term trading, UBS states that the extent of these reactions is quite reduced, as investors shift their focus towards what really determines Tesla’s worth.
The demand is the main reason for the downgrade, as customers are already getting demands in the Q3 from the expiration of the tax credit for electric vehicles in the U.S of $7,500 at the end of September.
UBS thinks that U.S deliveries may drop over 35% quarter on quarter in Q4, which makes it Tesla’s worst U.S performance in a long time. Given the current situation, the decline is perceived as a timing error due to policy changes rather than a structural problem.
Regional Performance
Overall, Europe is likely to show a better quarter-on-quarter performance, due to support from certain policy changes in different countries, such as the tax changes in Norway. However, to a large extent, year-on-year volumes will still be down, which will add to the thought that the demand for EVs is cooling off globally rather than increasing.
On the other hand, during the fourth quarter, China might have some gains compared to the third quarter, with the coming support of the usual December late-quarter boost. But still, the number of cars sold will be lower than last year’s level.
UBS estimates that the total global vehicle deliveries will be around 1.63 million units in 2025, which is approximately 9% less than the previous year, and that the volumes in 2026 are also going to be flat.
The expected figures are well below the current market scenario, as the industry is also recognizing more and more that Tesla’s car sales are no longer in the clean and high-growth phase at the moment.
Tesla is Not Just a Carmaker Anymore
The changing market response is a reflection of Tesla going through a transformation in terms of how it is being valued. The investors are shifting their perspective on the company from a traditional car maker to a tech platform that is built around software, AI, and autonomy.
The interest in robotaxi, full self-driving, and Tesla’s humanoid robot project Optimus has surpassed investor talks around the company’s operational aspects.
Under such influential factors, the quarterly delivery report showing weak sales due to expiring tax credits is very much regarded as insignificant. UBS notes that even if the company’s delivery numbers hardly meet the buy-side expectations, the stock price would react, but the market’s focus has definitely shifted towards Tesla’s long-term ventures.
Deliveries do Matter
Tesla’s narrative is changing, but still the company’s ability to fund and develop its AI projects is closely related to the health of the vehicle business. Slowing deliveries, increased incentives, and a smaller U.S electric vehicle market are all factors that put pressure on margins and cash flow.
In addition, UBS notes that energy storage deployments, which are considered to be another key growth factor, are still hard to predict on a quarter-to-quarter basis and are subject to fluctuations.
Although traditional automotive metrics may have less impact on Tesla’s daily trading activity, they are still of utmost importance in terms of the company’s foundations. It is the cash from vehicle sales that ultimately backs up the most ambitious of the company’s projects, such as self-driving fleets and humanoid robots.
Bottom Line
Tesla could be moving to a situation where delivery numbers are no longer the stock’s narrative, but they still silently hold it. In case there is rapid progress in robotaxis or Optimus, investors might still disregard the trends of weaker deliveries.
Still, if those long-term projects get delayed or fail to live up to the expectations, the market may swiftly reevaluate the situation and realize how much deliveries mattered back in the days.
At this point, Tesla is in a very strange position, as it is no longer being evaluated just on the basis of the number of cars sold, but it is not entirely liberated from the aspects of being a car company.
Whether the market will be able to keep that balance will rely on how effectively and convincingly Tesla converts its futuristic ambitions into real outcomes.
