Tesla’s entry into December with a laid-back 20% increase, somehow brings a kind of wholesome feeling, as if the stock had at last given the investors a stress free holiday. Besides the usual, Tesla is going through December with something called stability.
The share price has gone up by 20% since the start of the year, which is the kind of gain that is slow and steady that you would expect from a top-class expert. It is the same stock from the electric thrill ride that had the market losing 65% of its value in 2022 and then doubling the next year.
The uncertainty about Tesla’s future has definitely been its charm, which is a rollercoaster ride filled with drama, where only two years out of ten, since its IPO in 2010, have been unprofitable. Thus, a 20% increase in stock price in 2025 might seem quite modest for a firm that has been through such dramatic market swings. However, on the contrary, it is a good-looking rise and is a very mature growth indeed.
Will Tesla Join the Santa Rally?
At this time, the traders have begun the search for signs of the legendary momentum burst, which is termed as the Santa rally. Judging by Tesla’s December history, they certainly have a reason to be looking forward.
The price of the share has been mainly up by the end of the month, boasting nine winning seasons out of fifteen Decembers since the IPO date.
People are puzzled as to the reason behind the seasonal boost in sales, and so their explanations range from the goodness of the investors’ moods to the cutting of portfolios at the end of the year to retail trading patterns and tax maneuvers.
No single explanation is convincing enough which is perhaps the reason why the Santa rally has remained among the most popular superstitions of Wall Street. At the same time, if the Christmas rally does happen, Tesla shall be able to ride that into another yearly win.
But we must not forget that December is not free from Tesla’s signature volatility. There is no need to look further than the wild December 2022, a moment when the stock price dropped by 37% due to worrying that the Twitter takeover was a major distraction for Elon Musk.
Fortunately, 2025 is a year when the market is less stressful, and investors are back to thinking about the classic Tesla issues, which is its deliveries, margins, growth potential, and robots of course. Yet, December can be a month of surprises, and history has shown that it can go either way.
Tesla’s Real Catalyst
Traders may be looking forward to a seasonal rally, but the real certainty is the delivery numbers, and Tesla’s next numbers are just around the corner. The forecasts for deliveries in Q4 2025 are between 507,000 and 512,000 cars.
This span might not advertise hypergrowth, but indeed depicts a stable growing story, which is along with the projection of more than 2 million deliveries in total for the year. If it is accomplished, this would keep Tesla comfortably inside Elon Musk’s ambitious target of 20–30% yearly production increase for the long term.
In the world of Tesla, the difference between the two scenarios, momentum and meltdown, is extremely small. Meeting the delivery figures tends to shift the tale to the side of the past, falling short can bring back the “Tesla is broken” narrative that resurfaces approximately every quarter.
Q4 results are to be announced either on January 1 or January 2, 2026, which implies that investors will not welcome the New Year with promises but with charts, alerts, and a quick surge of adrenaline instead. The next income report is also around the corner, it is scheduled for January 28, which is immediately after the Q4 report.
An Achievable Rally
The 20% rise in the stock price of Tesla this year creates an atmosphere for a possibly favorable end. The stock is backed by seasonality, the Santa rally storyline is still alive, and even the analysts have not changed their minds about delivery forecasts being high both for Q4 and for the whole year.
But as always, putting money on Tesla requires both trust and emotional flexibility. To be precise, the December trend is favorable, analysts are optimistic, and the Santa rally myth only enhances the momentum narrative. But Tesla is still Tesla, it is innovative, unpredictable, occasionally chaotic, and eternally able to rewrite its own story with one headline.
If Tesla indeed ends the year on a high note, it will not just be the result of seasonal luck, it will be a confirmation that even the most volatile stocks can provide stability when the fundamentals are right.
