The equity of Alphabet increased by 74% between February 2025 and early 2026 because of significant improvements in artificial intelligence and cloud services offered by the company.
The rally was halted with the release of quarter four outcomes, leading to a reevaluation of investors.
Drivers of the Initial Rally
Alphabet reported impressive growth across key metrics in Q4 2025, with total revenue of $113.8 billion, up 18% year on year. Net income increased 30% year on year to $34.5 billion, while diluted EPS rose 31% to $2.82.
Google Cloud has achieved a growth of 48%, a consecutive growth of $2.5 billion, which slightly undertook the Microsoft figures.
User adoption grew by 750 million monthly active users with the introduction of Gemini 3, making search performance and advertiser return on investment more productive.
‘The fastestadoption of any model in our history’: Sundar Pichai hails AI gains as Google Cloud growth
Subsequent Price Decline
Despite beating analyst expectations, Alphabet shares fell 4.3%, making it one of the market’s largest drag.
This was declining due to capital expenditure of $175-185 billion by 2026 almost twice as much as 2025 and with a strong concentration on artificial-intelligence servers and information centers.
What concerns investors the most is not the absolute level of spending, but the uncertainty surrounding the return on investment and the timeframe for monetization.
Alphabet has historically maintained enviable profit margins, leveraging its search advertising dominance to generate significant free cash flow that has funded everything from moonshot projects to generous share buybacks.
The proposed capex program threatens to disrupt this comfortable equilibrium, potentially reducing near-term earnings while the company builds infrastructure that will take years to fully monetize.
Risks and Prospects
At 30X, Alphabet is still high in terms of price to earnings ratio in view of high capex investments. Assuming that cloud services grow more than 30 % and Gemini successfully monetizes, Alphabet can reclaim peak valuations by mid-2026, depending on responsible capex operation.
It is recommended that the first quarter be observed by investors on the effectiveness of execution.
