QuantumScape (NASDAQ: QS) currently traded at around 11, which is an increase of 8% compared with previous day and a 120% compared to previous year.  

The question therefore emerges, what triggers might induce further doubling, hence, causing the share price to go above the $22 mark?

Price Trajectory Determinants

The QS stock chart outlines performance trends that are important in various time spans. The share value has increased by 100.66% in the last year whereas the year to date return is at 0.58%. In the last one month, the stock dropped by 7.13%, which was a sign of recent market operation.

QuantumScape ended at $10.36, averaging 11.54 million shares traded on a given day, capitalization of $6.23 billion and a market value of 10.36.The stock was sold five years ago at $49.68 which is a 79.15% decrease compared to the time when the value reached its peak. 

By that point, the company had an outstanding market capitalization of $1.43 billion, and the trade volume was $14.19 million.

Key Milestones to keep an eye on

The year 2026 marks a turning point in the development of QuantumScape since it includes 4 main checkpoints:  

  • Q1 2026: Eagle Line Inauguration: This is the most immediate catalyst. A successful launch in San Jose will show that the Cobra heat-treatment process can operate at scale, paving the way for all future licensing partners.
  • Mid-2026- B-Sample Validation: As vehicle testing continues, confirmation from OEMs that the QSE-5 cells maintain their energy density (more than 800 Wh/L) under real-world conditions will be a significant risk reduction event.
  • 2027: First milestone payments and royalties under Volkswagen PowerCo, hence transforming QS into a pre-revenue company to a commercial entity that has projected revenues of ($60M–$90M).

Bear-Case Risks to QuantumScape’s Valuation

However, the target of $22 is not the given case; the bear case looks strong. QuantumScape has annual costs of about $450m and will continue to spend this amount till the end of 2028 meaning that any major delays into 2027-2028 would lead to a capital dilution equity issue, which is unfavorable to the shareholders. 

There is no proven experience of scaling ceramic separator production to gigawatts scale and even reputed manufacturers such as Toyota have failed in solid-state manufacturing.  

There is strong competition where Toyota, Samsung SDI, CATL, and Solid Power are also working to mass-produce solid-state or advanced lithium-metal batteries; should either of them outcompete QS in terms of volume production, but maintain a comparative level of performance then the first-mover advantage would evaporate.  

Conclusion  

QuantumScape will reach its goal only under the condition of strict implementation in 2026, namely the performance of the Eagle Line, testing of B-sample cars, and the receipt of new license agreements.