QuantumScape is one of those stocks that has investors leaning in with equal measures of interest, thought, and frustration. It’s a firm that has no significant revenue, is escalating losses, and has a market cap of over $6 billion. QuantumScape is not profitable at the moment, but it’s burning money like a kid with their first credit card. Yet, it’s sitting close to its 52-week high following a 25% year-to-date rally. 

In an increasingly fundamental and cash-flow driven market, this EV battery venture is still getting this much attention due to belief in breakthrough technology, strategic turnarounds, and sustained disruption. QuantumScape is trying to modify the playbook for electric vehicle batteries with solid-state lithium metal cells.

Revamping the EV Battery

At the center of QuantumScape’s story is its solid-state battery. The QSE-5, which is an electric vehicle battery that features more than 800 Wh/L of energy densities and ultra-fast charging (10% to 80% in less than 15 minutes). That’s a major modification from the conventional lithium-ion batteries, which have 300–700 Wh/L averages and take 20 minutes to an hour to charge quickly.

What sets it apart is the swapping of its liquid electrolytes for solids, which leads it to better safety, efficiency, and energy density. Though, the issue is scalability. Solid-state batteries thus far have only gained a slot in pacemakers and wearables due to manufacturing and cost challenges. 

QuantumScape developed this technology in collaboration with Volkswagen for more than a decade with hopes to be the first to take solid-state EV batteries into mass production. Its victory might revolutionize the EV business, but making promises is easy and keeping them on time and at scale is another story altogether.

Driving the Recent Rally

Even after missing its 2024 target earlier, QuantumScape stock jumped from its April 2025 record low of $3.40 to more than three times its value. This was possible due to three main reasons. The first reason is its manufacturing advancements. The company switched from its Raptor to Cobra separator process, which enhanced the reliability of battery cells and the efficiency of production. This is expected to facilitate higher-yield sample shipments.

The second reason is the shifting of its business model. QuantumScape strategically shifted away from expensive gigafactory plans to a capital-light licensing strategy, collaborating with automakers such as Volkswagen’s PowerCo to earn big name and fees rather than establishing manufacturing infrastructure. 

The third main reason is its path to revenue. While analysts forecast only $4.5 million in revenue in 2026 on a net loss of $430 million, the initial trickle of revenue is a psychological benchmark, which is the transition from promise to product. These maneuvers have helped recapture some investor confidence, although the financials remain well in the red.

Stock in the next 12 Months

In 2026 and 2027, the hopes are passive but quantifiable. Revenue in 2027 might increase to $60.2 million, losses might tighten to $371 million. Maintenance from manufacturing partners such as Murata should aid in scaling up separator production. However, the stock is trading more than 100 times its estimated 2027 sales. That’s a high valuation for a firm with no existing commercial product. The long-term tale still has merit, but short-term advantage may be limited.

Tale of Hope

If you have a long time horizon, a high tolerance for risk, and confidence that the company can scale both production and licensing agreements, retaining QuantumScape may be suitable. However, in the next 12 months, no fireworks are expected. With no mass production, no significant revenue, and a high valuation, QuantumScape might go sideways until there is real evidence of commercial momentum. It’s a stock that trades on hope, rather than action. This makes it volatile, at risk, and intriguing all at the same time.

The recent rally has been more about rekindled optimism, and is fueled by strategic maneuvers such as shifting to a licensing platform and advancing with its Cobra separator technology. In the coming year, the stock may lazily drift upwards on news, slide due to skepticism, or do nothing at all. It’s not momentum, it’s kind of an attraction, the sort of stock that draws dreamers and disruptors. Until the first report of revenue appears with something greater than a rounding error and a plan to scale, this will be a tale of hope, not evidence.