QuantumScape’s stock has taken a beating lately, sliding to around $9.86, but the math still says the market may now be pricing in nearly all its risks leaving a potentially compelling long-term play for investors who understand the EV battery race.
Recent Price Weakness
As of late January 2026, QuantumScape (QS) is down about 8.8 % over the past week and 5.1 % in the last month, with year-to-date returns at 10.9 %.
While the 1-year return is still a strong 89.5 %, the 3-year return is just 1.5 % and the 5-year return is around 79.2 %.
This volatility shows how little patience investors now have for speculative EV and battery plays without clear, near-term commercialization wins.
What the Valuation Says
A two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model gives a starkly different picture from the current price. Starting from a last-twelve-month free cash flow of about $280 million, the model projects cash flow rising to roughly $533 million by 2030 and $2.66 billion by 2035.
Based on that, the estimated intrinsic value comes in at about $50.90 per share. Simply Wall St’s valuation checklist gives QuantumScape only 2 out of 6 for being undervalued, mainly due to high cash burn and pre-revenue status, but the sheer size of the DCF gap signals very aggressive long-term expectations
Future Outlook
Today, QuantumScape is a high-risk, high-reward bet on next-gen EV batteries. Recent weakness has taken a lot of easy gains off the table, but the DCF still suggests big upside if the company transitions from lab to factory.
For investors who can handle volatility and a long horizon, the stock may still look attractive not because the losses are gone, but because the market’s skepticism is already baked into the current price.
