Equity ASML grew in the last trading session by a steep magnitude of around 7% with the publication of striking Q4 orders and optimistic anticipations of 2026. This has been in line with the growing stature of artificial intelligence, hence driving the company to new levels in terms of valuations.
Record Orders Fueling the Rally
ASML exceeded expectations by announcing Net bookings, Quarter 4, 2025 of EUR 13.2 billion this is way above the market forecast of EUR 6.32 billion.
The boom can be attributed to the chip manufacturers enhancing their investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure; only the EUV bookings have increased to EUR 7.4 billion. Barclays said in a note that it expects SK Hynix to take 12 of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines in 2026.
Expert Analysis
ASML’s CFO said that its customers have been,
More positive in their assessment of the medium-term market perspectives. I think it’s primarily on the basis of the more robust view that they have when it comes to demand for AI, which seems to be more sustainable from their vantage point.
Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview.
That recognition has led some of our customers to really invest in capacity and gear up their plans for medium-term capacity expansion.
Capital Allocation and Strategic Confidence
The Dutch firm declared a share-buyback program worth EUR 12 billion, and it will end in 2028 so that it indicates a high level of confidence in the cash-flow generation in the future.
This is important to investors in that big share buybacks usually support earnings per share, express the management belief in the long-term fundamentals, and offer downside insurance in times of volatility in the market.
European Auto Market Context
Compared to 12,963,614 cars in 2024, new passenger vehicle registrations in Europe (the EU, EFTA, and the UK) increased by 2.4% to 3,271,270 cars in the entire year 2025.
Although the European new car market grew for the third year in a row, overall sales were still 2.5 million fewer than in the years prior to 2020.
It highlights the fact that as uneven as the demand in industries and consumers in the field of semiconductors, the growth of ASML is becoming less dependent on the cyclical end markets and, rather, is supported by structural AI-based investment.
Optimistic Outlook for 2026
Visible Alpha predicts that the Dutch manufacturer of semiconductor equipment will report orders totaling 6.95 billion euros ($8.25 billion). The estimate is marginally less than the 7.09 billion euros in orders that ASML reported a year ago.
The most complex layers on chips are printed using ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, which are expected to generate 4.41 billion euros in orders.
These forces will off-set the possible risk on the Chinese market and will leave ASML in the lead as the ecosystem widens.
said CEO Christophe Fouquet in a statement.
We expect China customer demand, and therefore our China total net sales in 2026, to decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025.
The record order intake of ASML, the growth of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) demand, and disciplined capital allocation further support the status of a long-term recipient of the AI investment cycle despite the exposure being in relation to computed exposure to the Chinese market.
The AI-based orders strength highlights the sustainability of the demand, hence driving the recent surge and long-term valuation of the stock.
