Intel’s stock has been on a wild ride this June, giving investors whiplash with an 8% surge on Tuesday, a 6% tumble on Wednesday, and another rally attempt on Thursday. This dramatic back-and-forth isn’t just random noise; it’s a sign of deep division among investors about whether Intel is finally turning the corner or just making a lot of market racket.

Background: Years of Struggle, Glimmers of Hope

For years, Intel has lagged behind rivals like AMD and Nvidia, losing ground in everything from data centers to AI chips. The company’s five-year performance has been rocky, and the recent end of Apple’s support for Intel-based Macs closed a major chapter in its history. But now, there’s a sense that things might be changing. Optimism is building, thanks to a string of wins that hint at a real turnaround.

Signs of Progress

Intel is starting to deliver on its promises. The biggest recent win: Microsoft has committed to using Intel’s advanced 18A manufacturing process for future chips. This is a major endorsement for Intel’s foundry ambitions and could pave the way for long-term revenue growth. Intel’s new Xeon 6 processors were also chosen to power a supercomputer at Imperial College London, showing that its products can still compete at the highest levels. Meanwhile, Intel’s Chiplet Alliance just added Draper, a national security tech firm, strengthening its position in the government and aerospace sectors.

Fixing the Financials

Perhaps most important, Intel is getting serious about profitability. The company is now designing future products, like the upcoming Panther Lake CPUs, to hit gross margins above 50% even before production starts. This profits-first approach is backed by aggressive cost-cutting, with non-GAAP operating expenses targeted at $17 billion in 2025 and $16 billion in 2026. 

The goal: higher margins, lower costs, and a clear path to better earnings.

Risks Remain

Despite the progress, Intel’s challenges are real. Competition from AMD and Nvidia is fierce, and execution risks like logistical delays are ever-present. The recent Apple split underscores the urgency for Intel to succeed in new markets. Analyst consensus still rates Intel as a “Reduce,” reflecting skepticism about whether the turnaround will stick.

Looking Ahead

Still, Intel’s unique scale, U.S.-centric manufacturing, and CHIPS Act support give it a fighting chance. The next big milestone is volume manufacturing on its 18A process later in 2025. Chandrasekaran forecast Intel would be able to serve customers with high-volume production on the 18A process toward the second half of 2025. For long-term investors, the current volatility could be the first notes of a comeback, not just noise. The 2.4% dividend yield offers a modest reward for those willing to wait and see if the turnaround takes hold.

Author’s opinion

Intel’s recent wins are promising, but the real test will be execution in the coming year. If the company can deliver on its 18A process and keep costs in check, it could be the start of a real recovery.