The Apple Watch is set to hit the market in “early 2015,” which may actually mean sometime in the spring of next year by some accounts, and analysts are already creating predictions for first year sales. In a new analyst report from Morgan Stanley, the bank says it believes that Wall Street is “underestimating” its predictions for Apple Watch sales, with a consensus that Apple will sell somewhere between 10 million to 12 million units during its first year on the market.
The Apple Watch will blow past Wall Street’s expectations, says a Morgan Stanley investor note published on Wednesday. The firm raised its price target on Apple stock from $115 to $126 on their revised estimates. Morgan Stanley said most analysts are expecting Apple to sell between 10 million and 30 million watches in 2015, but they think 30 million units is a reasonable — and “arguably still conservative” — estimate. The analysts got this figure by looking at the total number of people who will own an iPhone 5 or later by the time the Watch launches next March, which is estimated to be 315 million, then estimating that 10% of those people will buy a Watch. By way of comparison, 14% of people who owned a compatible iPhone bought an iPad within its first year, and 7% of recent iPod owners bought the iPhone in its first year.