Last year’s launch weekend had Apple selling 5 million iPhones. This year, analysts believe they’ll sell between 5 million and 8 million, a wide range but one that comes during a time when estimates simply don’t seem to hit very often. The expectation for last year’s iPhone: 10 million.

Analysts believe Apple may sell more iPhones during launch weekend this year than in 2012, but not by much.

Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, expects Apple to sell 5 million to 6 million iPhones worldwide through Sunday, according to an investor note obtained by Mashable. Munster expects that Apple will sell about 2.5 million iPhone 5S devices and about 3 million iPhone 5C devices, with pre-orders accounting for 1 million of the latter.