Analysts have gotten the hang of understanding the ebb and flow of iPad popularity. It was a hard start (many said the original iPad would flop) but now they have their numbers straight and their expectations have been hitting properly as of late. This analysis shows that the big boy will outpace the little guy this holiday season.

Shipments of the iPad 5 will dwarf the iPad Mini 2 in the fourth quarter of this year, according to a report from a widely cited analyst.

The iPad 5 is estimated to see shipments of more than 10 million units in the fourth quarter compared with about 2 million for the iPad Mini 2, according to a research note from KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Apple blogs such as MacRumors and 9to5Mac reported on Kuo’s note this morning.