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After the Q3 print, Blackwell visibility is materially better and the H200 bottleneck isn't affecting margin. We lift our 12-month target to $220.
Optimus demo was materially better than expected. However the TSLA multiple already implies $2T+ Optimus TAM, so the re-rating path from here is narrow.
Services growth stays above 13%, Vision Pro 2 launches Q2 — but iPhone 17 unit growth is what determines the next 12 months. We see upside on a benign setup.
MI350 closes ~85% of the perf-per-watt gap with H200 at a 30% price discount. Hyperscaler diversification narrative finally has a product behind it.
AIP adoption is real and accelerating. The valuation is not defensible at 100x forward earnings versus any historical precedent for a $200B enterprise SaaS name.
