NVDA: Blackwell ramp de-risks the 2026 setup — upgrade to bullish
After the Q3 print, Blackwell visibility is materially better and the H200 bottleneck isn't affecting margin. We lift our 12-month target to $220.
Published April 18, 2026
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue +94% YoY at $35.1B, datacenter $30.8B
- Blackwell ramp accelerates in January; hyperscalers pre-ordered through Q2 2026
- Gross margin of 74.6% — all-time high for a business of this scale
Risk factors
- China export restrictions expand to include H200 (6% of Q3 rev)
- Hyperscaler capex softens if 2026 recession scenario plays out
Disclosure
Author holds no position in NVDA at time of publish.