Nvidia doesn’t simply announce results, it makes a statement through its reprise and with consistency. If there was a favorite catchphrase of stock market trends, Nvidia’s could be “Catch me if you can, every May.” For the third consecutive year, investors are following Nvidia like it’s the season finale of a tech thriller, with AI hype, valuation drama, and plot twists that include billion-dollar write downs. The stock has had a habit of catching skeptics off guard and repaying the loyal. With earnings around the corner, Nvidia is all set for another session of deja vu.

History may not necessarily repeat, but for Nvidia, it has been incredibly consistent in a good way when it comes to stock boosts. The company behind the mammoth GPUs witnessed a surge in May over its share prices individually in each of the past two years along with a reputation build due to its amazing Q1 quarterly earnings reports in 2024. Nvidia, yet again is entering a fiscal first-quarter report on May 28 under similar circumstances, which is the investor pessimism, international economic worry, and a valuation that looks deceivingly low-cost, all of which potentially could be the prologue to another huge rally.

Same Valuation

At its essence, Nvidia is continuing to do what it does best, which is to produce GPUs that drive everything from high-definition gaming to sophisticated AI workloads. Demand for those chips went wild in early 2023 as the AI craze took flight, particularly among cloud providers scrambling to build out their data centers. That demand fueled a huge rally in Nvidia’s stock last May, a trend that recurred in May 2024.

Now, in May 2025, the same thing is happening. Even after posting solid performance over the last year, Nvidia stock has retreated, not because of company vulnerability, but because of more general worries like U.S trade policies during the Trump administration and worries about a decelerating economy. However, even in the face of these fears, Nvidia is at a forward P/E of approximately 26, a price almost exactly the same as it was before prior surges. If the firm reports another positive Q1, as many anticipate, the stage may be set for yet another breakout.

The China Headwind

The only potential storm on Nvidia’s otherwise bright outlook is a $5.5 billion write-off related to U.S export controls on advanced chips to China. That’s not a minor storm, as the new regulations restrict what Nvidia can sell abroad, possibly squeezing earnings in the near term. Although preliminary indications are that AI behemoths, or “hyperscalers”, are not put off. Their latest Q1 reports revealed no deceleration in capital expenditure on AI infrastructure.

Indeed, Nvidia forecasts that data center capex will annually rise from $400 billion this year to a mind-boggling $1 trillion by 2028. That sort of growth would more than justify Nvidia’s current price tag and potentially take the stock much higher in the years ahead.

All Set for Post-Earnings

Nvidia has proven repeatedly that it can translate a good earnings beat into significant shareholder returns, particularly in May. While macroeconomic uncertainty and export pressures may bring short-term volatility, the underlying growth story remains solid. While geopolitical anxieties and export limitations are legitimate risks, they do not revise Nvidia’s long-term thesis of growth. The boom in AI has just begun, and Nvidia is still the author of the playbook.

With historical valuations and a continued beat in fundamentals, going short on this stock has hardly ever paid. Investors seeking the next great tech move may discover that Nvidia once again is in just the right place at the right time.