Illustration: PJM-region power infrastructure, created for TECHi. The pictured plants are not Constellation or Vistra facilities.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
Did FERC cancel Constellation's Microsoft or Vistra's Meta power contract?
No. FERC suspended PJM's separate one-time reliability-backstop procurement for five months. PJM and the FERC order do not say the signed bilateral contracts were cancelled.
Which contract has more capacity from reactors already operating?
Vistra says 2,176 MW of its 2,609 MW Meta agreement is from operating plants, about 83.4% of the contracted total. Constellation's roughly 835 MW Crane plant must restart before supplying its Microsoft deal.
Are the CEG and VST prices in this article live October 1 prices?
No. The quoted $254.02 CEG and $138.35 VST prices are Alpaca consolidated SIP closes for September 30, 2026, the latest completed U.S. regular session at the time of reporting.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Market data, tax rules, and prices can change after the article date. TECHi and its authors may hold positions in securities or digital assets mentioned. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial, tax, or legal professional before making decisions.
Omer Sheikh covers Tesla and SpaceX as public-market stories, from the federal audit of Cybercab's safety certification to how much more SpaceX now spends on AI than on rockets. He also follows the capital moving through AI, including Nvidia's reported talks to anchor Anthropic's IPO and Intel's $15 billion request to investors.
After PJM's September 30 update, Constellation and Vistra already have the kind of bilateral power contracts that the PJM grid operator wants more of. That matters more than their exposure to a proposed backstop auction. On September 29, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission accepted PJM's reliability-backstop framework but suspended its effectiveness for five months, until February 28, 2027, while it examines unresolved issues. PJM confirmed on September 30 that its planned procurement would not begin that day. The delay changes the timetable for new capacity procurement; it does not cancel either company's existing data-center power agreement.
For investors choosing between Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST), the cleaner distinction is how much of each AI-linked contract is already generating electricity and how much still depends on bringing new capacity online. Vistra has more contracted output from operating reactors. Constellation's Microsoft deal is tied to a plant restart. The former offers a nearer operating bridge; the latter carries a more concentrated execution milestone.
Article Brief
The decision after PJM's delay
4 Points24s Read
01The order-FERC accepted the backstop framework but suspended its operation until February 28, 2027; existing bilateral deals were not cancelled.
02Vistra-About 83.4% of the 2,609 MW Meta contract is tied to output from reactors already operating, though purchases begin only in late 2026.
03Constellation-Its roughly 835 MW Microsoft contract depends on the planned 2027 restart of Crane's Unit 1.
04The tape-September 30 closes are prior-session observations, not live October 1 quotes or proof of FERC-driven price moves.
What FERC actually delayed
PJM's account of the order says the commission accepted its one-time Reliability Backstop Procurement proposal, suspended it for five months, and set a February 28, 2027 effective date subject to refund and further proceedings. PJM will revise the procurement timetable. An October 7 committee meeting is due to provide an administrative update, but PJM has not announced a new auction start date.
The distinction between an accepted framework and an operating procurement is material. The backstop is meant to secure new supply against a capacity shortfall; signed bilateral contracts for qualifying new supply can reduce its procurement target. Commissioner David See's September 29 concurrence identifies the unresolved question: whether the customers driving new load, rather than existing ratepayers, bear the resulting costs. Neither the order nor PJM's summary says that the Constellation–Microsoft or Vistra–Meta contracts were rescinded. It would be wrong to turn a procurement delay into a claim that their contracted power suddenly disappeared.
Vistra has more operating megawatts under contract
Vistra's January 2026 agreement with Meta covers 2,609 megawatts over 20 years. The split deserves more attention than the headline total. Meta is buying 2,176 MW from the operating Perry and Davis-Besse plants; another 433 MW is to come from uprates at Perry, Davis-Besse and Beaver Valley. TECHi calculates that about 83.4% of the contracted total comes from existing output and 16.6% depends on incremental upgrades (2,176 and 433 divided by 2,609). The latter is still an execution project, and the full 2,609 MW is scheduled to be online only by 2034. Vistra says purchases begin in late 2026.
This is not the same as saying 83.4% of the agreement is earning today. The purchase start is still ahead, contract terms are not fully public, and a contracted megawatt is not a dollar of recognized revenue. It does mean that most of the named capacity does not first require a shut reactor to be restarted.
Vistra's August 7 earnings release reaffirmed 2026 ongoing-operations adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. That is a company-defined non-GAAP measure, not GAAP free cash flow. Crucially, its published 2026 guidance excludes potential contributions from the Meta contracts and the then-pending Cogentrix transaction. Investors should not count the full Meta economics in that guidance and then add an assumed contract benefit again.
Constellation's larger question is the restart date
Constellation signed a 20-year agreement for Microsoft to purchase energy from the roughly 835 MW Crane Clean Energy Center in Pennsylvania. The facility is the former Three Mile Island Unit 1, a separate unit from the reactor involved in the 1979 accident. Unlike most of Vistra's contracted Meta volume, Crane must return to service before the contract can deliver its planned output. Constellation's August 6, 2026 results said it was moving toward a 2027 restart after regulatory milestones, including a fuel-license amendment and a capacity-interconnection-rights waiver. The 2027 date remains a company plan, not a completed restart.
Constellation has a broader fleet and customer business than this one plant. Its 2026 adjusted operating-earnings guidance of $11.50 to $12.50 per share gives a company-wide performance frame, but it is not comparable to Vistra's adjusted free-cash-flow-before-growth range. The two companies use different non-GAAP definitions, capital structures and share counts. A simple division of those guidance numbers would create a false winner.
For Constellation, the observable milestones are more useful: whether Crane clears remaining regulatory and commissioning work, when it becomes deliverable to PJM, and how the Microsoft agreement contributes after commercial operation. A delayed backstop procurement does not accelerate those physical steps.
What the September 30 stock tape can—and cannot—say
This comparison uses the completed September 30 session rather than a live October 1 quote. Alpaca's consolidated SIP daily bars put CEG's close at $254.02, down 3.99% from its September 29 close of $264.58, and VST's at $138.35, down 1.76% from $140.83. TECHi calculates that Constellation underperformed Vistra by about 2.23 percentage points on those two close-to-close returns. These are previous-session closes, not live October 1 quotes; provider-reported prices and adjustment conventions may differ across feeds.
That relative move is a useful market observation, not proof that FERC caused either decline. The companies differ in earnings, financing and power-market exposures, and no clean event study isolates the order's effect. TECHi's CEG quote page and VST quote page provide the continuing price and financial context, with each displayed observation's provider and timestamp. Readers should check those stamps before treating any page value as current.
Which stock has the clearer setup?
Vistra is the more direct choice for investors who want existing generating assets behind the data-center contract and a disclosed 2026 cash-generation range. The Meta deal's majority-operating-capacity mix reduces one type of construction or restart risk, though contracted sales, uprates, hedges and power prices still carry execution risk. Its share price can also fall even if the operating thesis holds.
Constellation is the more specific wager on delivering a newly restarted nuclear plant into a long-term Microsoft contract. That could add valuable supply to a tight grid, but its investment case depends more visibly on the 2027 restart and subsequent operation. The comparison does not establish which stock is cheaper today; that requires consistent, current enterprise-value and cash-flow measures that the two published guidance figures do not supply.
The next evidence point is not a generic AI-demand headline. It is PJM's revised procurement timetable and cost-allocation path, followed by the companies' own updates on contract commencement and new megawatts. Readers can monitor the CEG earnings calendar and VST earnings calendar alongside PJM's filings. Until then, the defensible conclusion is narrower than “FERC picked a winner”: the delay leaves both bilateral deals in place, while Vistra has more of its contracted capacity operating already.
This is general market analysis, not personalized investment advice. Power-market rules, contract terms, plant schedules and stock prices can change.
Omer Sheikh covers Tesla and SpaceX as public-market stories, from the federal audit of Cybercab's safety certification to how much more SpaceX now spends on AI than on rockets. He also follows the capital moving through AI, including Nvidia's reported talks to anchor Anthropic's IPO and Intel's $15 billion request to investors.
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