NYSE · Technology · Forecast & analysis
Onto Innovation Inc forecast and analyst view.
Median target, high/low range, buy/hold/sell mix, conviction spread, bull/base/bear scenarios — powered by TECHi’s proprietary Forward model that frequently diverges from consensus on the factors that actually move prices.
Two ways to look at the future for this stock
Street view (the cards and charts below) = what Wall Street analysts currently publish as price targets and ratings.
TECHi Forward view = our proprietary multi-horizon model that blends price action, fundamentals, news sentiment, options flow, governance, and quant scores into conviction signals that often differ from the consensus.
New here? Start with the Forward section — it explains what we actually believe will drive the stock over the next 3–12 months.
TECHi Forward Model
Proprietary multi-horizon research screen.
This is not a price prediction. It is a directional research screen that blends dozens of factors (analyst revisions, momentum, fundamentals, leadership, news sentiment, etc.) into conviction scores. Treat the output as a sophisticated filter, not a forecast.
Formula outlook
Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Strongest input: track record validation (86/100). Main brake: technical tape (48/100). Model confidence is 35/100 from 24 of 68 available inputs; 44 inputs are missing, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Historical progress: 5 Years +280.9% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday -2.7%. Rolling price-history validation is 6.2% across 1072 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots.
55
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
24 of 68 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns feeding forecast
20Y to 1D
20 Years
PendingPending
CAGR pending
Pending to Pending
Pending to Pending
Waiting for enough historical closes to score this window.
10 Years
PendingPending
CAGR pending
Pending to Pending
Pending to Pending
Waiting for enough historical closes to score this window.
5 Years
100/100+280.9%
+30.7% CAGR
$70.06 to $266.89
2021-05-27 to 2026-05-27
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
1 Year
100/100+177.9%
+178.1% CAGR
$96.05 to $266.89
2025-05-27 to 2026-05-27
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
Last month
25/100-10.5%
CAGR pending
$298.28 to $266.89
2026-04-27 to 2026-05-27
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Last week
77/100+7.6%
CAGR pending
$248.08 to $266.89
2026-05-19 to 2026-05-27
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Yesterday
34/100-2.7%
CAGR pending
$274.17 to $266.89
2026-05-26 to 2026-05-27
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
A-Z factor map
Every scoring input shown
26 factors
Analyst conviction
External view · 50/100
Consensus Pending; upside Pending
Uses consensus, target spread, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Beta risk
Risk · Pending
Beta Pending
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Cash runway
Balance sheet · Pending
Current Pending; cash/debt Pending
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 47/100
90D max drawdown -20.2%
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Earnings accuracy
Fundamental proof · Pending
Positive EPS surprise rate Pending
Grades whether reported earnings have beaten estimates when history is available.
Free cash flow
Quality · Pending
FCF margin Pending; yield Pending
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Growth pulse
Growth · Pending
Revenue Pending; EPS Pending
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
History depth
Validation · 100/100
1653 closes analyzed
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Implied upside
External view · Pending
Target spread Pending
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote.
Jump signal
Momentum · 70/100
5D return +7.6%
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
Key margins
Quality · Pending
Gross Pending; operating Pending
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
MACD pressure
Technicals · 12/100
MACD histogram -3.16
Reads whether trend momentum is accelerating or fading.
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; pending
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Operating leverage
Quality · Pending
Operating margin Pending
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
PE and PEG
Valuation · 50/100
Forward PE Pending; PEG Pending; EV/Sales Pending
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Quality trend
Quality · 50/100
Quality composite 50/100
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
RSI balance
Technicals · 57/100
RSI 14 37.7
Rewards constructive momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical tape
Technicals · 48/100
20D -5.5%; 60D +22.4%
Blends returns, averages, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 50/100
Future 50/100; analyst 50/100
Combines internal future-value signal with outside target support.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · Pending
Volume 945.2K vs avg Pending
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
52-week position
Momentum · 87/100
Range position +78.3%
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Execution roadmap
Strategic · Pending
0 roadmap items
Uses roadmap impact and horizon breadth for forward-value context.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 88/100
1M windows 75/100; 3M windows 100/100
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 43/100
40 missing fields
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
Composite formula
12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 14% quality, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 6% sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer, 7% risk brake.
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens pending.
Factual coverage
50/100 from 30/70 sourced fields, 18% live feed health, and 40 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
6.2% rolling hit rate across 1072 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+13.2%$302.17
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+2.1%$272.43
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-8.9%$243.08
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Buy, hold, or sell research stance by timeframe
Each row changes the formula weights: short windows lean on technicals and tape; long windows lean on quality, valuation, leadership, and future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
54/100 signal · 36/100 conf · 50/100 facts
13.3% hit · 218 scored
+0.3%
$267.69
Basis News sentiment 67/100 · Momentum setup 57/100 · Technical tape 48/100. Intraday-sensitive. Treat as tape risk, not a forecast.
7 Days
55/100 signal · 36/100 conf · 50/100 facts
8.0% hit · 212 scored
+0.8%
$269.03
Basis News sentiment 67/100 · Momentum setup 57/100 · Track record validation 86/100. One-week setup. News and technical reversals can dominate fundamentals.
15 Days
55/100 signal · 36/100 conf · 50/100 facts
6.4% hit · 204 scored
+1.3%
$270.36
Basis News sentiment 67/100 · Momentum setup 57/100 · Track record validation 86/100. Short swing setup. Earnings dates and macro prints can overwhelm the model.
30 Days
55/100 signal · 37/100 conf · 50/100 facts
4.2% hit · 189 scored
+1.9%
$271.96
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · News sentiment 67/100 · Momentum setup 57/100. One-month setup. Best read with earnings calendar and options positioning.
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
55/100 signal · 37/100 conf · 50/100 facts
0.0% hit · 156 scored
+3.0%
$274.90
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · Momentum setup 57/100 · News sentiment 67/100. Quarterly setup. Guidance, margin trend, and estimate revisions matter most.
6 Months
55/100 signal · 37/100 conf · 50/100 facts
0.0% hit · 93 scored
+4.2%
$278.10
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · News sentiment 67/100 · Momentum setup 57/100. Two-quarter setup. Watch estimate revisions and balance-sheet risk.
1 Year
55/100 signal · 38/100 conf · 50/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+6.9%
$285.31
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · Momentum setup 57/100 · News sentiment 67/100. Twelve-month research signal. Compare with analyst targets and filings.
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
55/100 signal · 39/100 conf · 50/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+12.7%
$300.79
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · Risk brake 55/100 · Momentum setup 57/100. Multi-year thesis signal. Execution quality matters more than current tape.
5 Years
56/100 signal · 39/100 conf · 50/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+22.9%
$328.01
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · Risk brake 55/100 · News sentiment 67/100. Long-term compounding signal. Needs repeated validation after each filing cycle.
10 Years
56/100 signal · 39/100 conf · 50/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+33.1%
$355.23
Basis Track record validation 86/100 · Risk brake 55/100 · News sentiment 67/100. Decade thesis signal. This is strategic durability, not a price target.
Model validation
Daily scoring history by horizon and field
The 1-day model is rescored for every available close. Longer horizons are scored when enough future sessions have matured; strategic factors stay pending until daily snapshots are stored.
1 Day
13.3%
218 daily scores · 2.8% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.2% vs -2.7% actual
7 Days
8.0%
212 daily scores · 7.9% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.1% vs -1.8% actual
15 Days
6.4%
204 daily scores · 12.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.1% vs -12.5% actual
30 Days
4.2%
189 daily scores · 20% avg error
Latest: Hold +3.4% vs +2.0% actual
3 Months
0.0%
156 daily scores · 35.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +3.2% vs +18.5% actual
6 Months
0.0%
93 daily scores · 96.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.7% vs +109.9% actual
1 Year
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
3 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
5 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
10 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
Technical tape
Scored10.7%
430 samples · latest 2026-05-26
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Scored6.3%
605 samples · latest 2026-05-15
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Scored2.3%
345 samples · latest 2026-04-14
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Quality trend
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily saved fundamentals snapshots to grade whether margin, ROE/ROA, and cash-flow quality predicted later returns.
Future value
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily saved roadmap and strategic-impact snapshots before historical correctness can be scored.
Valuation pressure
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs historical valuation snapshots so the model can compare multiple compression/expansion against later returns.
Analyst/revision signal
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily analyst target, revision, and earnings-estimate snapshots to score upgrade/downgrade correctness.
News sentiment
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily sentiment snapshots; current page has 8 headline inputs but not a stored historical sentiment series.
Leadership depth
PendingPending
0 samples
Leadership is a slow-moving strategic factor; score it after saved profile changes and multi-quarter outcomes.
Social/developer traction
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs saved social/developer follower and engagement snapshots before trend correctness can be graded.
Risk brake
Scored3.8%
549 samples · latest 2026-05-05
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Technical tape
5D/20D/60D returns + SMA 20/50/200 + RSI 14 + MACD + volume + volatility
48/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
8/11 inputs available
Momentum setup
Range position + price vs averages + session move + 20D/60D returns + liquidity multiple
57/100
Rewards confirmed trend, but trims extremes near the top of the range.
5/8 inputs available
Track record validation
All-time CAGR + one-year positive windows + EPS surprise hit rate + distance from all-time high + listing depth
86/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
6/8 inputs available
Quality trend
Margins + ROE/ROA + revenue growth + earnings growth + free-cash-flow conversion
50/100
Looks for a business that can convert growth into durable profit, cash flow, and returns.
0/9 inputs available
Future value
Product roadmap + human impact + forward growth estimates + capital runway
50/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
0/7 inputs available
Valuation pressure
Forward/trailing multiple + price/sales + price/book + EV/sales + PEG + FCF yield + target spread
50/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
0/8 inputs available
Analyst/revision signal
Consensus score + implied upside + latest EPS surprise + EPS estimate revisions
50/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
0/4 inputs available
News sentiment
Average news sentiment score + dominant label + current headline breadth
67/100
Captures current narrative pressure without letting headlines dominate the model.
1/3 inputs available
Leadership depth
CEO + CFO/COO/CTO/CPO/CMO coverage + named executive depth
50/100
Rewards leadership visibility across finance, operations, technology, product, and go-to-market roles.
0/1 inputs available
Social/developer traction
X/Twitter + GitHub + LinkedIn + YouTube + other public audience signals
50/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
0/1 inputs available
Risk brake
Beta + leverage + liquidity + size + volatility + drawdown + history + missing fields
55/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
4/8 inputs available
Composite = 12% technical tape + 12% momentum + 12% track record validation + 14% quality + 11% future value + 10% valuation + 10% analyst/revision + 6% sentiment + 4% leadership + 2% social/developer traction + 7% risk brake, confidence-adjusted toward neutral when fields are missing.
Scenario prices blend live market fields with roadmap, leadership, human-impact, and social/developer inputs; they are not analyst price targets.
Buy/Hold/Sell is the formula label for the selected horizon, not personal financial advice. Use it beside filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
0 roadmap inputs in the future-value lens.
0 named C-suite roles tracked.
0 social and developer channels available.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is the price target for ONTO?
Wall Street analyst targets and the TECHi analyst consensus for Onto Innovation Inc are tracked on the TECHi ONTO forecast page, with separate bull / base / bear scenarios.
Is ONTO a buy?
Onto Innovation Inc ratings are tracked across TECHi-approved analysts and the broader Street. The forecast and analysis page shows the bullish / hold / bearish split beside the target range.
What is ONTO's 12-month forecast?
Twelve-month price targets — the median Wall Street target and the TECHi desk's bull / base / bear scenarios — are published on the TECHi ONTO forecast page.
How accurate are TECHi's ONTO forecasts?
TECHi tracks every public price target it issues and grades them at 30, 90, and 180 days. Per-author accuracy is published on each analyst's profile.
What is the analyst consensus on ONTO?
The ONTO Forecast and Analysis page tracks the sell-side consensus rating, buy/hold/sell split, target dispersion, and bull/base/bear scenarios for Onto Innovation Inc.
How is ONTO's analyst mix changing?
The Forecast and Analysis page is the place to read the recommendation mix, target-revision context, 12-month target range, and bull/base/bear scenario math.
Where do ONTO rating signals fit in the quote workflow?
Ratings and price-target scenarios live together on Forecast and Analysis because desk sentiment explains the target range. Earnings dates and payouts live on Earnings and Dividends; valuation ratios live on Statistics.
Where can I see TECHi analyst research on ONTO?
TECHi's own analyst notes on Onto Innovation Inc (when published) appear in a dedicated card below the consensus block, with deep links to the full research report.