NasdaqGS · Technology · Forecast & analysis
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings
Median target, high/low range, buy/hold/sell mix, conviction spread, and bull/base/bear scenarios from the latest analyst data.
Section freshness
Price Aug 11, 4:00 PM EDT · Statements Jun 29, 8:00 PM EDT
Forecast read
SPCX target implies +57.55% from current.
Use this dashboard to see whether Wall Street expects SPCX to grow, stall, or drop before you dive into the raw financial data.
Price target map
Today to 12 months out
Data last updated: Aug 11, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Median target
$210.00
+57.55% from current
Consensus
Buy
40 analysts tracked
Rating score
4.08
Analyst consensus score on 1-5 scale
Dispersion
0.75
Moderate Consensus Divergence
- High target
- $800.00
- +500.20% bull case
- Low target
- $62.00
- -53.48% bear case
- Analyst disagreement
- +553.68%
- High target minus low target, divided by current price
TECHi take
SPCX consensus has a target, but the rating mix still matters.
TECHi Markets Desk · Aug 11, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
TECHi is tracking 40 analyst ratings on Space Exploration Technologies Corp., with consensus at Buy and a rating score of 4.08. Dispersion tells you whether that consensus is broad or clustered.
The primary target is $210.00, implying +57.55% from the latest quoted price. TECHi still separates the base target from the bull and bear range because the spread is what tells investors whether analysts agree or are simply clustering around a headline number.
Use the sections below to compare the rating split, estimate revisions, and peer forecasts. When target data is available, the scenario view expands into explicit bull, base, and bear cases with the high and low targets shown below.
TECHi Signal model
Forecast math with source coverage and horizon history.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
50
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
42 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
Last month
40/100-4.2%
CAGR unavailable
$139.14 to $133.29
2026-07-13 to 2026-08-11
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
73/100+6.4%
CAGR unavailable
$125.33 to $133.29
2026-08-04 to 2026-08-11
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
26/100-3.9%
CAGR unavailable
$138.74 to $133.29
2026-08-10 to 2026-08-11
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
4 empty progress windows are hidden until enough closes exist.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
21/26 factors
5 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 69/100
Current 5.12x; cash/debt 1.08x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 40/100
26 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 59/100
Consensus 4.08; upside +76.8%; disagreement +553.7%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 100/100
Target move +76.8%; disagreement +553.7%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 47/100
Future 72/100; analyst 59/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 0/100
1M windows 0/100; 3M windows unavailable
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 67/100
5D return +6.4%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 56/100
Range position +23.6%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Key margins
Quality · 11/100
Gross unavailable; operating -1.8%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 15/100
Operating margin -1.8%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 11/100
Quality composite 11/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 12/100
90D max drawdown -48.8%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 82/100
MACD hist 5.02; slope 0.22
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 75/100
RSI 14 52.3; Stoch %K 81
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 52/100
20D -2.1%; ATR 8.5%; %B 0.85
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (unavailable), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 56/100
Volume 108.3M vs avg 95.8M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 44/100
41 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 53/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales unavailable
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
60/100 from 61/87 sourced fields, 35% live source health, and 26 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
0% rolling hit rate across 5 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+16.3%$154.99
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+0.3%$133.67
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-16.3%$111.54
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
53/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 60/100 facts
+0.1%
$133.42
Drivers News sentiment 67/100 · Technical tape 52/100
7 Days
54/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 60/100 facts
+0.3%
$133.69
Drivers News sentiment 67/100 · Analyst/revision signal 59/100
15 Days
48/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-0.2%
$133.02
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · News sentiment 67/100
30 Days
49/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-0.2%
$133.02
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Analyst/revision signal 59/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
50/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 60/100 facts
0.0%
$133.29
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Future value 72/100
6 Months
48/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-0.8%
$132.22
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Future value 72/100
1 Year
47/100 signal · 13/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-2.0%
$130.62
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Future value 72/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
45/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-6.1%
$125.16
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Future value 72/100
5 Years
44/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-10.9%
$118.76
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Future value 72/100
10 Years
43/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 60/100 facts
-18.4%
$108.76
Drivers Quality trend 11/100 · Future value 72/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
0.0%
5 daily scores · 9.0% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs -3.9% actual
9 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
10 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Limited0.0%
5 samples · latest 2026-08-10
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Analyst consensus
What the street actually thinks right now.
SPCX currently has 40 analyst entries with a live Wall Street consensus score of 4.08 (Buy).
Dispersion score: 0.75 · Moderate Consensus Divergence.
Adjusted score for spread: 3.67 · used to reduce false certainty when recommendations are split.
Consensus read: Lopsided bullish
Signal-vs-consensus divergence
SPCX current TECHi Signal stance against analyst consensus.
Consensus: 4.08 (Buy) · Signal: 3.00 (Balanced watch) · gap -1.08 on the 1-5 scale
Dispersion reliability: usable. If consensus is split, a small gap is still meaningful, while a wide gap usually means framing differences.
TECHi Signal is more cautious than consensus.
TECHi Signal can diverge from consensus on 3M+ horizons because it blends financial data, governance signals, leadership quality, and quant scores (Altman Z, ROIC, Rule of 40, FCF yield) alongside standard analyst inputs.
- Consensus
- Buy
- Rating score
- 4.08
- 1 sell to 5 strong buy scale
- Adjusted score
- 3.67
- Disciplined by disagreement
- Buy weight
- 80%
- 32 buy / strong buy
- Hold + Sell pressure
- 20%
- 8 hold + sell
Current distribution of recommendations in TECHi’s analyst dataset.
Analyst strength
Buy and strong-buy split
Buy minus sell
Analyst indecision proxy
Forecast math
The real risk and reward behind the numbers.
These numbers answer one retail-investor question: if you buy today, how much reward or risk are analysts putting on the table?
Moves vs current price
Primary target vs live price
Highest target vs live price
Lowest target vs live price
Spread & asymmetry
Gap between the highest and lowest targets
Bull upside divided by bear downside
Bull target above the base target
Bear target below the base target
Scenario framing
What the SPCX target range actually means for each scenario.
Bull case
$800.00
+500.20% from current
Highest active analyst target. Represents the most optimistic execution scenario currently modeled by sell-side desks.
In plain English: the best-case number on the table today if everything goes perfectly.
Base case
$210.00
+57.55% from current
Median 12-month target from the latest sell-side data.
In plain English: this is the single number most analysts are clustering around right now.
Bear case
$62.00
-53.48% from current
Lowest active target. Captures the bear-case execution risk in current models — not necessarily a price the market expects to print.
In plain English: the worst-case number analysts are still publishing, even if they don’t expect it to happen.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
Is SPCX a buy?
Analysts currently rate Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) "Buy" across 40 tracked ratings (32 buy, 7 hold, and 1 sell). The primary 12-month target is $210.00 (+57.55% from the latest quote). This is the reported Wall Street consensus, not personalized investment advice — review the full rating mix, dispersion, and bull/base/bear scenarios below before deciding.
What is the price target for SPCX?
The current primary SPCX target is $210.00 (+57.55% from the latest quote).
What is the analyst consensus on SPCX?
SPCX's current analyst consensus is Buy across 40 tracked ratings.
What is SPCX's 12-month forecast?
The SPCX forecast page shows the available low, primary, and high 12-month targets beside scenario and risk context.
What analysis is available for SPCX?
The SPCX Forecast and Analysis page combines the fresh rating mix, target range, scenarios, catalysts, and risk context currently available for Space Exploration Technologies Corp..
Does TECHi publish its own SPCX research?
Related TECHi analyst notes appear when a reviewed report is connected to SPCX; consensus-provider data remains separately identified.