NASDAQ · Technology · TECHi Signal
Arm Holdings (ARM) Stock Rating & Risk Score
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for ARM.
Prices as of Sep 17, 4:00 PM EDT
Start here
ARM: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Track record validation (74/100) is the strongest signal; valuation pressure (33/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 15/100 — some inputs are unavailable, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 1 Year +72.7% total; yesterday +8.6%. Comparable past signals have verified against subsequent prices 9.5% of the time. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
50/100
Low confidence
Inputs
48/76
71/100 factual coverage
Universe
Refreshing
Peer rank unavailable
Nearest
Hold
1 Day +0.3%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
57/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
52/100
4/5 inputs
Valuation
33/100
2/8 inputs
Risk brake
39/100
6/8 inputs
50
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
71/100 factual coverage, 36% live source health.
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
11/100 conf
+0.3%
Technical tape 57/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
7 Days
11/100 conf
+0.6%
Technical tape 57/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
15 Days
11/100 conf
+0.7%
Momentum setup 61/100 / Technical tape 57/100
30 Days
13/100 conf
+0.3%
Valuation pressure 33/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
3 Months
13/100 conf
0.0%
Valuation pressure 33/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
6 Months
13/100 conf
0.0%
Valuation pressure 33/100 / Future value 60/100
1 Year
15/100 conf
+1.2%
Valuation pressure 33/100 / Future value 60/100
3 Years
18/100 conf
+4.4%
Valuation pressure 33/100 / Future value 60/100
5 Years
18/100 conf
+6.6%
Valuation pressure 33/100 / Future value 60/100
10 Years
18/100 conf
+9.5%
Future value 60/100 / Valuation pressure 33/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Track record validation
74/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Leadership depth
65/100
1/1 inputs · 4% dashboard weight
Momentum setup
61/100
10/10 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Pressure points
Valuation pressure
33/100
2/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Risk brake
39/100
6/8 inputs · 7% dashboard weight
News sentiment
42/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
ARM's nearest horizon is hold at +0.3%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
50
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
48 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
1 Year
100/100+72.7%
+72.8% CAGR
$153.37 to $264.90
2025-09-17 to 2026-09-17
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
61/100+4.6%
CAGR unavailable
$253.32 to $264.90
2026-08-18 to 2026-09-17
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
65/100+4.2%
CAGR unavailable
$254.18 to $264.90
2026-09-10 to 2026-09-17
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
100/100+8.6%
CAGR unavailable
$243.98 to $264.90
2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
3 empty progress windows are hidden until enough closes exist.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
19/26 factors
7 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 35/100
18 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 52/100
Consensus 3.64; upside +9%; disagreement +141.6%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 62/100
Target move +9%; disagreement +141.6%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 54/100
Future 60/100; analyst 52/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 54/100
1M windows 51/100; 3M windows 57/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 61/100
5D return +4.2%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 69/100
Range position +46.8%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Quality trend
Quality · 50/100
Quality composite 50/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 8/100
Beta 3.89
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 42/100
5 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 65/100
1 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 12/100
90D max drawdown -48.8%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 85/100
MACD hist 2.11; slope 1.11
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 83/100
RSI 14 54; Stoch %K 79.9
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 57/100
20D +6.2%; ATR 6.3%; %B 0.93
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 71/100
Volume 6.1M vs avg 3.9M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
755 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 19/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales unavailable
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 1 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
71/100 from 64/82 sourced fields, 36% live source health, and 18 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
9.5% rolling hit rate across 1072 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Positive / Neutral / Negative are model research stances, not buy or sell recommendations. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+22.6%$324.73
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+0.2%$265.34
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-23.8%$201.98
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
54/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+0.3%
$265.69
Drivers Technical tape 57/100 · Momentum setup 61/100
7 Days
54/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+0.6%
$266.49
Drivers Technical tape 57/100 · Momentum setup 61/100
15 Days
53/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+0.7%
$266.75
Drivers Momentum setup 61/100 · Technical tape 57/100
30 Days
51/100 signal · 13/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+0.3%
$265.69
Drivers Valuation pressure 33/100 · Momentum setup 61/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
50/100 signal · 13/100 conf · 71/100 facts
0.0%
$264.90
Drivers Valuation pressure 33/100 · Momentum setup 61/100
6 Months
50/100 signal · 13/100 conf · 71/100 facts
0.0%
$264.90
Drivers Valuation pressure 33/100 · Future value 60/100
1 Year
51/100 signal · 15/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+1.2%
$268.08
Drivers Valuation pressure 33/100 · Future value 60/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
52/100 signal · 18/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+4.4%
$276.56
Drivers Valuation pressure 33/100 · Future value 60/100
5 Years
52/100 signal · 18/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+6.6%
$282.38
Drivers Valuation pressure 33/100 · Future value 60/100
10 Years
52/100 signal · 18/100 conf · 71/100 facts
+9.5%
$290.07
Drivers Future value 60/100 · Valuation pressure 33/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
21.1%
218 daily scores · 3.6% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.4% vs +8.6% actual
7 Days
11.3%
212 daily scores · 11.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs +1.3% actual
15 Days
8.8%
204 daily scores · 17.1% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.4% vs +5.5% actual
30 Days
4.2%
189 daily scores · 32.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.8% vs -3.5% actual
3 Months
3.8%
156 daily scores · 66.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.5% vs -36.8% actual
6 Months
0.0%
93 daily scores · 135.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.8% vs +106.4% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested16.3%
430 samples · latest 2026-09-16
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested8.2%
605 samples · latest 2026-09-08
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested4.0%
345 samples · latest 2026-08-05
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested5.8%
549 samples · latest 2026-08-26
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for ARM?
TECHi Signal combines available technical, valuation, fundamental, analyst, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs for Arm Holdings (ARM) into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal investment advice?
No. Signal labels are research context, not personalized investment advice or an order recommendation.
How is Signal different from Forecast for ARM?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets and scenarios. Signal combines that evidence with technical, fundamental, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs.