NasdaqCM · Financials · TECHi Signal
MARA Holdings Inc (MARA) Stock Rating & Risk Score
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for MARA.
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MARA: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. News sentiment (67/100) is the strongest signal; quality trend (32/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 27/100 — some inputs are unavailable, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: Yesterday +1.3% total; yesterday +1.3%. Comparable past signals have verified against subsequent prices 10.8% of the time. It ranks #90/120 across the TECHi coverage universe and #4/6 in Financials. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
48/100
Low confidence
Inputs
61/76
71/100 factual coverage
Universe
#90/120
26/100 peer percentile
Nearest
Hold
1 Day -0.1%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
45/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
56/100
3/5 inputs
Valuation
38/100
5/8 inputs
Risk brake
46/100
8/8 inputs
48
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
71/100 factual coverage, 35% live source health.
TECHi coverage universe
MARA against fresh TECHi coverage.
Peer ranks are recalculated from the latest live quotes, so the context moves when the underlying data moves.
Universe rank
#90/120
26/100 percentile among scored peers.
Sector rank
#4/6
Financials coverage cohort.
Fresh symbols
120
120 tickers scored in the trailing week.
Freshest pull
Jul 23, 2026
MARA model as of Jul 22, 2026.
Nearest Signal comps
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
16/100 conf
-0.1%
News sentiment 67/100 / Technical tape 45/100
7 Days
16/100 conf
0.0%
News sentiment 67/100 / Technical tape 45/100
15 Days
16/100 conf
-0.7%
News sentiment 67/100 / Quality trend 32/100
30 Days
19/100 conf
-1.1%
Quality trend 32/100 / News sentiment 67/100
3 Months
19/100 conf
-2.3%
Quality trend 32/100 / Valuation pressure 38/100
6 Months
19/100 conf
-4.1%
Quality trend 32/100 / Valuation pressure 38/100
1 Year
20/100 conf
-6.7%
Quality trend 32/100 / Valuation pressure 38/100
3 Years
23/100 conf
-17.3%
Quality trend 32/100 / Valuation pressure 38/100
5 Years
23/100 conf
-26.0%
Quality trend 32/100 / Valuation pressure 38/100
10 Years
23/100 conf
-42.9%
Quality trend 32/100 / Valuation pressure 38/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
News sentiment
67/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Analyst/revision signal
56/100
3/5 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Leadership depth
50/100
0/1 inputs · 4% dashboard weight
Pressure points
Quality trend
32/100
6/9 inputs · 14% dashboard weight
Valuation pressure
38/100
5/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Track record validation
43/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
MARA's nearest horizon is hold at -0.1%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
48
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
61 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
10 Years
18/100-74.5%
-12.8% CAGR
$48.64 to $12.41
2016-07-21 to 2026-07-22
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
20/100-50.9%
-13.3% CAGR
$25.26 to $12.41
2021-07-22 to 2026-07-22
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
3/100-37.6%
-37.6% CAGR
$19.88 to $12.41
2025-07-22 to 2026-07-22
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
11/100-16.4%
CAGR unavailable
$14.85 to $12.41
2026-06-22 to 2026-07-22
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
54/100+1.0%
CAGR unavailable
$12.29 to $12.41
2026-07-15 to 2026-07-22
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
58/100+1.3%
CAGR unavailable
$12.25 to $12.41
2026-07-21 to 2026-07-22
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
1 empty progress windows are hidden until enough closes exist.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
23/26 factors
3 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 51/100
Current 1.84x; cash/debt 0.15x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 38/100
24 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 56/100
Consensus 3.77; upside +46.1%; disagreement +197.4%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 100/100
Target move +46.1%; disagreement +197.4%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 45/100
Future 47/100; analyst 56/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Growth pulse
Growth · 26/100
Revenue +18.3%; EPS -113.5%
Method
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 37/100
1M windows 51/100; 3M windows 44/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 53/100
5D return +1%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 62/100
Range position +34.2%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Free cash flow
Quality · 0/100
FCF margin -532.6%; yield -6.9%
Method
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Key margins
Quality · 0/100
Gross +0%; operating unavailable
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Quality trend
Quality · 32/100
Quality composite 32/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 8/100
Beta 5.371
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 27/100
90D max drawdown -28%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 38/100
MACD hist -0.06; slope 0.07
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 69/100
RSI 14 48.1; Stoch %K 48.3
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 45/100
20D -15.6%; ATR 9.5%; %B 0.43
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 49/100
Volume 42.4M vs avg 46.6M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
3573 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 22/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales 108.05x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
71/100 from 77/101 sourced fields, 35% live source health, and 24 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
10.8% rolling hit rate across 1072 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+19.6%$14.84
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
-2.4%$12.11
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-25.5%$9.24
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
49/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-0.1%
$12.40
Drivers News sentiment 67/100 · Technical tape 45/100
7 Days
50/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 71/100 facts
0.0%
$12.41
Drivers News sentiment 67/100 · Technical tape 45/100
15 Days
47/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-0.7%
$12.32
Drivers News sentiment 67/100 · Quality trend 32/100
30 Days
47/100 signal · 19/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-1.1%
$12.27
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · News sentiment 67/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
46/100 signal · 19/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-2.3%
$12.12
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · Valuation pressure 38/100
6 Months
45/100 signal · 19/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-4.1%
$11.90
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · Valuation pressure 38/100
1 Year
45/100 signal · 20/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-6.7%
$11.58
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · Valuation pressure 38/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
43/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-17.3%
$10.26
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · Valuation pressure 38/100
5 Years
43/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-26.0%
$9.18
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · Valuation pressure 38/100
10 Years
42/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 71/100 facts
-42.9%
$7.09
Drivers Quality trend 32/100 · Valuation pressure 38/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
23.9%
218 daily scores · 4.0% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.2% vs +1.3% actual
7 Days
12.7%
212 daily scores · 10.3% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.7% vs +1.8% actual
15 Days
6.9%
204 daily scores · 15.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.5% vs -10.7% actual
30 Days
7.4%
189 daily scores · 22.0% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.2% vs -9.9% actual
3 Months
3.2%
156 daily scores · 38.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.1% vs +10.5% actual
6 Months
4.3%
93 daily scores · 34.2% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.8% vs +19.7% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested18.4%
430 samples · latest 2026-07-21
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested9.1%
605 samples · latest 2026-07-13
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested5.5%
345 samples · latest 2026-06-08
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested6.0%
549 samples · latest 2026-06-30
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for MARA?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for MARA Holdings Inc (MARA). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect MARA's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for MARA?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.