NASDAQ NMS - GLOBAL MARKET · Technology · Forecast & analysis
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings
Buy/hold/sell mix, conviction spread, and target-range context when analyst data is available.
Section freshness
Price Aug 23, 9:44 PM EDT · Statements Mar 27, 8:00 PM EDT
Forecast read
LITE has ratings coverage; price targets are still pending.
Use this dashboard to see whether analysts expect LITE to grow, stall, or drop while TECHi waits for a fresh target range.
Price target map
LITE currently has 33 analyst ratings tracked; a forecast target range is not yet available.
Forecast target playground
Set your own 12-month target for LITE and compare it against current analyst coverage. 33 analyst ratings are currently tracked.
Relative move:
For scenario planning only — published analyst targets are not yet available for LITE.
Data last updated: Aug 23, 2026, 9:44 PM EDT
Current price: Price pending · 33 ratings tracked
Consensus
Buy
33 analysts tracked
Rating score
4.12
Analyst consensus score on 1-5 scale
Dispersion
0.64
Moderate Consensus Divergence
Adjusted score
3.76
Consensus score pulled toward neutral when disagreement rises
Coverage note
A published price-target range and full recommendation breakdown are not yet available for this name. Ratings, dispersion, and scenario analysis remain below.
TECHi take
LITE consensus inputs are flowing, while target inputs are still pending.
TECHi Markets Desk · Aug 23, 2026, 9:44 PM EDT
TECHi is tracking 33 analyst ratings on Lumentum Holdings, with consensus at Buy and a rating score of 4.12. Dispersion tells you whether that consensus is broad or clustered.
Twelve-month price targets are not yet published for Lumentum Holdings. The rating mix and dispersion are the clearest current read on where the Street stands.
Use the sections below to compare the rating split, estimate revisions, and peer forecasts. When target data is available, the scenario view expands into explicit bull, base, and bear cases.
TECHi Signal model
Forecast math with source coverage and horizon history.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
51
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
41 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
10 Years
100/100+2404.9%
+38.0% CAGR
$34.60 to $866.71
2016-08-19 to 2026-08-21
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
100/100+924.7%
+59.2% CAGR
$84.58 to $866.71
2021-08-20 to 2026-08-21
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
100/100+638.1%
+639.1% CAGR
$117.43 to $866.71
2025-08-21 to 2026-08-21
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
60/100+4.0%
CAGR unavailable
$833.64 to $866.71
2026-07-23 to 2026-08-21
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
27/100-6.4%
CAGR unavailable
$926.14 to $866.71
2026-08-14 to 2026-08-21
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
41/100-1.4%
CAGR unavailable
$879.28 to $866.71
2026-08-20 to 2026-08-21
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
1 empty progress windows are hidden until enough closes exist.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
17/26 factors
9 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 58/100
Current 1.68x; cash/debt 0.2x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 42/100
33 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 78/100
Consensus 4.12; upside unavailable; disagreement unavailable
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 55/100
Future 41/100; analyst 78/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 77/100
1M windows 72/100; 3M windows 82/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 33/100
5D return -6.4%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
Quality
Key margins
Quality · 61/100
Gross +58.9%; operating +13.6%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 54/100
Operating margin +13.6%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 47/100
Quality composite 47/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 57/100
5 headlines; somewhat-bullish
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 12/100
90D max drawdown -42.8%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
RSI balance
Technicals · 63/100
RSI 14 52.5; Stoch %K 37.5
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 48/100
20D +13.6%; ATR 9.3%; %B 0.63
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
2787 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 5/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales 53.29x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
62/100 from 57/90 sourced fields, 24% live source health, and 33 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
7.4% rolling hit rate across 1072 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
No price inputUnavailable
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
No price inputUnavailable
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
No price inputUnavailable
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Horizon signals appear after the quote stack supplies a usable live price.
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
13.8%
218 daily scores · 5.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.2% vs -1.4% actual
7 Days
10.4%
212 daily scores · 11.5% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.9% vs -7.1% actual
15 Days
5.4%
204 daily scores · 19.5% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.4% vs +21.4% actual
30 Days
5.8%
189 daily scores · 34.7% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.2% vs +8.1% actual
3 Months
3.2%
156 daily scores · 76.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.8% vs -10.1% actual
6 Months
0.0%
93 daily scores · 202.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.5% vs +29.8% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested12.1%
430 samples · latest 2026-08-20
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested7.3%
605 samples · latest 2026-08-12
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested4.6%
345 samples · latest 2026-07-10
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested4.9%
549 samples · latest 2026-07-31
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Analyst consensus
What the street actually thinks right now.
LITE currently has 33 analyst entries with a live Wall Street consensus score of 4.12 (Buy).
Dispersion score: 0.64 · Moderate Consensus Divergence.
Adjusted score for spread: 3.76 · used to reduce false certainty when recommendations are split.
Consensus read: Lopsided bullish
Signal-vs-consensus divergence
LITE current TECHi Signal stance against analyst consensus.
Consensus: 4.12 (Buy) · Signal: 3.04 (Balanced watch) · gap -1.08 on the 1-5 scale
Dispersion reliability: usable. If consensus is split, a small gap is still meaningful, while a wide gap usually means framing differences.
TECHi Signal is more cautious than consensus.
TECHi Signal can diverge from consensus on 3M+ horizons because it blends financial data, governance signals, leadership quality, and quant scores (Altman Z, ROIC, Rule of 40, FCF yield) alongside standard analyst inputs.
- Consensus
- Buy
- Rating score
- 4.12
- 1 sell to 5 strong buy scale
- Adjusted score
- 3.76
- Disciplined by disagreement
- Buy weight
- 85%
- 28 buy / strong buy
- Hold + Sell pressure
- 15%
- 5 hold + sell
Current distribution of recommendations in TECHi’s analyst dataset.
Analyst strength
Buy and strong-buy split
Buy minus sell
Analyst indecision proxy
Frequently asked
Common questions.
Is LITE a buy?
Analysts currently rate Lumentum Holdings (LITE) "Buy" across 33 tracked ratings (28 buy, 5 hold, and 0 sell). This is the reported Wall Street consensus, not personalized investment advice — review the full rating mix, dispersion, and bull/base/bear scenarios below before deciding.
How complete is the LITE forecast data?
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) does not yet have enough fresh target data for a published range. Available ratings remain visible without an invented target.
What analysis is available for LITE?
The LITE Forecast and Analysis page combines the fresh rating mix, target range, scenarios, catalysts, and risk context currently available for Lumentum Holdings.
Does TECHi publish its own LITE research?
Related TECHi analyst notes appear when a reviewed report is connected to LITE; consensus-provider data remains separately identified.