NASDAQ · TECHNOLOGY · Forecast & analysis
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings
Median target, high/low range, buy/hold/sell mix, conviction spread, and bull/base/bear scenarios from the latest analyst feed.
Forecast read
MTSI target implies +1.95% from current.
Use this dashboard to see whether Wall Street expects MTSI to grow, stall, or drop before you dive into the raw financial data.
Price target map
Today to 12 months out
Data last updated: Jun 12, 2026, 6:11 PM EDT
Median target
$392.50
+1.95% from current
Consensus
Buy
15 analysts tracked
Buy weight
80%
12 buy or strong buy
Analyst disagreement
+27.27%
High target minus low target
Formula outlook
Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Strongest input: track record validation (89/100). Main brake: valuation pressure (25/100). Model confidence is 94/100 from 64 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 10 Years +911.9% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday +1.4%. Rolling price-history validation is 8.9% across 1078 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots.
60
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
High confidence
64 of 68 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns feeding Signal
20Y to 1D
20 Years
Not scoredUnavailable
CAGR unavailable
Unavailable to Unavailable
Date range unavailable
Waiting for enough historical closes to score this window.
10 Years
100/100+911.9%
+26.0% CAGR
$37.54 to $379.87
2016-06-10 to 2026-06-12
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
5 Years
100/100+534.2%
+44.7% CAGR
$59.90 to $379.87
2021-06-11 to 2026-06-12
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
1 Year
100/100+187.1%
+187.4% CAGR
$132.29 to $379.87
2025-06-12 to 2026-06-12
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
Last month
49/100-0.4%
CAGR unavailable
$381.55 to $379.87
2026-05-13 to 2026-06-12
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Last week
86/100+10.0%
CAGR unavailable
$345.40 to $379.87
2026-06-05 to 2026-06-12
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Yesterday
58/100+1.4%
CAGR unavailable
$374.76 to $379.87
2026-06-11 to 2026-06-12
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
25/26 factors
1 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Analyst conviction
External view · 64/100
Consensus 4; upside +3.5%
Uses consensus, target spread, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Beta risk
Risk · 71/100
Beta 1.662
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 52/100
Current 7.52x; cash/debt 0.21x
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 49/100
90D max drawdown -19.7%
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Earnings accuracy
Fundamental proof · 88/100
Positive EPS surprise rate 88/100
Grades whether reported earnings have beaten estimates when history is available.
Free cash flow
Quality · 23/100
FCF margin +6.1%; yield +0.2%
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Growth pulse
Growth · 65/100
Revenue +22.5%; EPS +42.9%
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
History depth
Validation · 100/100
3582 closes analyzed
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Implied upside
External view · 55/100
Target spread +3.5%
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote.
Jump signal
Momentum · 77/100
5D return +10%
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
Key margins
Quality · 66/100
Gross +55.7%; operating +17.6%
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
MACD pressure
Technicals · 12/100
MACD histogram -4.68
Reads whether trend momentum is accelerating or fading.
News tone
Sentiment · 72/100
8 headlines; bullish
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Operating leverage
Quality · 64/100
Operating margin +17.6%
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
PE and PEG
Valuation · 27/100
Forward PE 52.91x; PEG 2.05x; EV/Sales 25.44x
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Quality trend
Quality · 51/100
Quality composite 51/100
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
RSI balance
Technicals · 88/100
RSI 14 48.5
Rewards constructive momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical tape
Technicals · 63/100
20D -1%; 60D +73.5%
Blends returns, averages, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 55/100
Future 50/100; analyst 64/100
Combines internal future-value signal with outside target support.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 41/100
Volume 1.1M vs avg 1.7M
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
52-week position
Momentum · 86/100
Range position +88.7%
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 72/100
1M windows 69/100; 3M windows 87/100
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 67/100
7 missing fields
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
Composite formula
12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 14% quality, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 6% sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer, 7% risk brake.
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
88/100 from 102/109 sourced fields, 57% live feed health, and 7 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
8.9% rolling hit rate across 1078 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+19.3%$459.12
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+4.8%$403.62
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-8.5%$352.43
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Buy, hold, or sell research stance by timeframe
Each row changes the formula weights: short windows lean on technicals and tape; long windows lean on quality, valuation, leadership, and future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
66/100 signal · 94/100 conf · 88/100 facts
13.7% hit · 219 scored
+3.4%
$398.09
Basis Technical tape 63/100 · Momentum setup 71/100 · News sentiment 72/100. Intraday-sensitive. Treat as tape risk, not a forecast.
7 Days
66/100 signal · 94/100 conf · 88/100 facts
13.6% hit · 213 scored
+6.8%
$411.18
Basis Momentum setup 71/100 · Technical tape 63/100 · News sentiment 72/100. One-week setup. News and technical reversals can dominate fundamentals.
15 Days
64/100 signal · 94/100 conf · 88/100 facts
9.3% hit · 205 scored
+8.9%
$419.27
Basis Momentum setup 71/100 · Technical tape 63/100 · News sentiment 72/100. Short swing setup. Earnings dates and macro prints can overwhelm the model.
30 Days
62/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 88/100 facts
9.5% hit · 190 scored
+11.5%
$429.28
Basis Momentum setup 71/100 · Technical tape 63/100 · News sentiment 72/100. One-month setup. Best read with earnings calendar and options positioning.
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
60/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 88/100 facts
0.0% hit · 157 scored
+14.9%
$442.37
Basis Momentum setup 71/100 · Track record validation 89/100 · Valuation pressure 25/100. Quarterly setup. Guidance, margin trend, and estimate revisions matter most.
6 Months
58/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 88/100 facts
0.0% hit · 94 scored
+17.0%
$450.45
Basis Track record validation 89/100 · Valuation pressure 25/100 · Analyst/revision signal 64/100. Two-quarter setup. Watch estimate revisions and balance-sheet risk.
1 Year
57/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 88/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+24.1%
$477.79
Basis Track record validation 89/100 · Valuation pressure 25/100 · Analyst/revision signal 64/100. Twelve-month research signal. Compare with analyst targets and filings.
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
55/100 signal · 92/100 conf · 88/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+31.8%
$507.43
Basis Track record validation 89/100 · Valuation pressure 25/100 · Analyst/revision signal 64/100. Multi-year thesis signal. Execution quality matters more than current tape.
5 Years
55/100 signal · 92/100 conf · 88/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+47.7%
$568.65
Basis Track record validation 89/100 · Valuation pressure 25/100 · Risk brake 65/100. Long-term compounding signal. Needs repeated validation after each filing cycle.
10 Years
55/100 signal · 92/100 conf · 88/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+68.9%
$650.27
Basis Track record validation 89/100 · Valuation pressure 25/100 · Risk brake 65/100. Decade thesis signal. This is strategic durability, not a price target.
Model validation
Daily scoring history by horizon and field
The 1-day model is rescored for every available close. Longer horizons are scored when enough future sessions have matured; strategic factors stay limited until daily snapshots are stored.
1 Day
13.7%
219 daily scores · 2.5% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.4% vs +1.4% actual
7 Days
13.6%
213 daily scores · 6.9% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.5% vs -2.7% actual
15 Days
9.3%
205 daily scores · 11.5% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.9% vs -0.2% actual
30 Days
9.5%
190 daily scores · 19.5% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.0% vs +34.9% actual
3 Months
0.0%
157 daily scores · 38.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.2% vs +74.4% actual
6 Months
0.0%
94 daily scores · 94.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.8% vs +104.0% actual
1 Year
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
3 Years
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
5 Years
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
10 Years
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
7 validation lanes need daily factor snapshots before TECHi shows historical accuracy for them.
Technical tape
Scored13.7%
432 samples · latest 2026-06-11
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Scored10.9%
608 samples · latest 2026-06-03
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Scored5.2%
347 samples · latest 2026-04-30
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Scored6.7%
552 samples · latest 2026-05-21
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Technical tape
5D/20D/60D returns + SMA 20/50/200 + RSI 14 + MACD + volume + volatility
63/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
11/11 inputs available
Momentum setup
Range position + price vs averages + session move + 20D/60D returns + liquidity multiple
71/100
Rewards confirmed trend, but trims extremes near the top of the range.
8/8 inputs available
Track record validation
All-time CAGR + one-year positive windows + EPS surprise hit rate + distance from all-time high + listing depth
89/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
8/8 inputs available
Quality trend
Margins + ROE/ROA + revenue growth + earnings growth + free-cash-flow conversion
51/100
Looks for a business that can convert growth into durable profit, cash flow, and returns.
9/9 inputs available
Future value
Product roadmap + human impact + forward growth estimates + capital runway
50/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
5/7 inputs available
Valuation pressure
Forward/trailing multiple + price/sales + price/book + EV/sales + PEG + FCF yield + target spread
25/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Analyst/revision signal
Consensus score + implied upside + latest EPS surprise + EPS estimate revisions
64/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
4/4 inputs available
News sentiment
Average news sentiment score + dominant label + current headline breadth
72/100
Captures current narrative pressure without letting headlines dominate the model.
3/3 inputs available
Leadership depth
CEO + CFO/COO/CTO/CPO/CMO coverage + named executive depth
50/100
Rewards leadership visibility across finance, operations, technology, product, and go-to-market roles.
0/1 inputs available
Social/developer traction
X/Twitter + GitHub + LinkedIn + YouTube + other public audience signals
50/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
0/1 inputs available
Risk brake
Beta + leverage + liquidity + size + volatility + drawdown + history + missing fields
65/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
Composite = 12% technical tape + 12% momentum + 12% track record validation + 14% quality + 11% future value + 10% valuation + 10% analyst/revision + 6% sentiment + 4% leadership + 2% social/developer traction + 7% risk brake, confidence-adjusted toward neutral when fields are missing.
Scenario prices blend live market fields with roadmap, leadership, human-impact, and social/developer inputs; they are not analyst price targets.
Buy/Hold/Sell is the formula label for the selected horizon, not personal financial advice. Use it beside filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
0 roadmap inputs in the future-value lens.
0 named C-suite roles tracked.
0 social and developer channels available.
- High target
- $450.00
- +16.88% bull case
- Low target
- $345.00
- -10.39% bear case
- Analyst disagreement
- +27.27%
- High target minus low target, divided by current price
TECHi take
MTSI consensus has a target, but the rating mix still matters.
TECHi Markets Desk · Jun 12, 2026, 6:11 PM EDT
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is not a blank forecast page: TECHi is currently tracking 15 analyst ratings, with 12 bullish calls, 3 holds, and 0 bearish calls. That leaves the consensus at Buy and puts buy weight at 80%, which is the first signal to read before treating any future target range as actionable.
The primary target is $392.50, implying +1.95% from the latest quoted price. TECHi still separates the base target from the bull and bear range because the spread is what tells investors whether analysts agree or are simply clustering around a headline number.
Use the rest of this page to compare the rating split, estimate revisions, and peer forecasts. When target data is available, the same module expands into explicit bull, base, and bear scenarios with the high and low targets shown below.
Analyst consensus
What the street actually thinks right now.
Out of 15 analysts tracked by TECHi, MTSI is currently rated Buy. The mix is 12 buy or strong buy (80%), 3 hold (20%), and 0 sell or strong sell (0%).
Consensus read: Lopsided bullish
TECHi Signal can diverge from consensus on 3M+ horizons because it blends data snapshots, governance signals, leadership quality, and quant scores (Altman Z, ROIC, Rule of 40, FCF yield) alongside standard analyst inputs.
- Consensus
- Buy
- Rating score
- 4.00
- 1 sell to 5 strong buy scale
- Buy weight
- 80%
- 12 buy or strong buy
- Hold weight
- 20%
- 3 hold ratings
- Sell weight
- 0%
- 0 sell or strong sell
Current distribution of recommendations in TECHi’s analyst feed.
Recommendation mix
Analyst strength
Buy and Strong Buy share of total ratings
Buy weight minus sell weight
High hold weight often means analysts are waiting for a catalyst
Forward estimates
What analysts are modeling for the next year.
- Revenue estimate
- $1.59B
- Range $1.46B to $1.66B
- Revenue analysts
- 13
- Contributors in estimate feed
- EPS estimate
- 6.84
- Range 5.84 to 8.18
- EPS analysts
- 14
- Contributors in estimate feed
- EPS revisions 30d
- 13 up / 0 down
- Trailing 30-day estimate changes
Forecast math
The real risk and reward behind the numbers.
These numbers answer one retail-investor question: if you buy today, how much reward or risk are analysts putting on the table?
Moves vs current price
Primary target vs live price
Highest target vs live price
Lowest target vs live price
Spread & asymmetry
Gap between the highest and lowest targets
Bull upside divided by bear downside
Bull target above the base target
Bear target below the base target
Scenario framing
What the MTSI target range actually means for each scenario.
Bull case
$450.00
+16.88% from current
Highest active analyst target. Represents the most optimistic execution scenario currently modeled by sell-side desks.
In plain English: the best-case number on the table today if everything goes perfectly.
Base case
$392.50
+1.95% from current
Median 12-month target from the latest sell-side feed.
In plain English: this is the single number most analysts are clustering around right now.
Bear case
$345.00
-10.39% from current
Lowest active target. Captures the bear-case execution risk in current models — not necessarily a price the market expects to print.
In plain English: the worst-case number analysts are still publishing, even if they don’t expect it to happen.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is the price target for MTSI?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc's current TECHi forecast view shows a primary 12-month target of $392.50, or +1.95% from the latest quoted price. High / low target range data is shown only when the latest provider feed supplies it.
Is MTSI a buy?
MTSI is currently rated Buy on TECHi's forecast feed, based on 15 analysts tracked. The mix is 12 buy or strong buy (80%), 3 hold (20%), and 0 sell or strong sell (0%).
What is MTSI's 12-month forecast?
Twelve-month price targets — including the median Wall Street target and high / low range — are published on the TECHi MTSI forecast page.
How accurate are TECHi's MTSI forecasts?
TECHi tracks public forecast calls against later market prices and shows accuracy modules only when enough historical target and closing-price data exists. If the MTSI target range is pending, TECHi does not publish a made-up accuracy score.
What is the analyst consensus on MTSI?
The MTSI Forecast and Analysis page tracks the sell-side consensus rating, buy/hold/sell split, target dispersion, and bull/base/bear scenarios for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc.
How is MTSI's analyst mix changing?
The Forecast and Analysis page is the place to read the recommendation mix, target-revision context, 12-month target range, and bull/base/bear scenario math.
Where do MTSI rating signals fit in the quote workflow?
Ratings and price-target scenarios live together on Forecast and Analysis because desk sentiment explains the target range. Earnings dates and payouts live on Earnings and Dividends; valuation ratios live on Statistics.
Where can I see TECHi analyst research on MTSI?
TECHi's own analyst notes on MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (when published) appear in a dedicated card below the consensus block, with deep links to the full research report.