NASDAQ · Technology · TECHi Signal
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Stock Rating & Risk Score
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for ASML.
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ASML: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Track record validation (91/100) is the strongest signal; technical tape (48/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 12/100 — some inputs are unavailable, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 20 Years +8058.7% total; yesterday +1%. Comparable past signals have verified against subsequent prices 9.8% of the time. It ranks #83/120 across the TECHi coverage universe and #51/74 in Technology. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
51/100
Low confidence
Inputs
47/76
65/100 factual coverage
Universe
#83/120
32/100 peer percentile
Nearest
Hold
1 Day +0.1%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
48/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
56/100
3/5 inputs
Valuation
55/100
2/8 inputs
Risk brake
63/100
6/8 inputs
51
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
65/100 factual coverage, 33% live source health.
TECHi coverage universe
ASML against fresh TECHi coverage.
Peer ranks are recalculated from the latest live quotes, so the context moves when the underlying data moves.
Universe rank
#83/120
32/100 percentile among scored peers.
Sector rank
#51/74
Technology coverage cohort.
Fresh symbols
120
120 tickers scored in the trailing week.
Freshest pull
Sep 4, 2026
ASML model as of Sep 3, 2026.
Nearest Signal comps
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
9/100 conf
+0.1%
Risk brake 63/100 / Technical tape 48/100
7 Days
9/100 conf
+0.1%
Risk brake 63/100 / Technical tape 48/100
15 Days
9/100 conf
+0.7%
Track record validation 91/100 / Analyst/revision signal 56/100
30 Days
11/100 conf
+1.0%
Track record validation 91/100 / Risk brake 63/100
3 Months
11/100 conf
+2.6%
Future value 85/100 / Analyst/revision signal 56/100
6 Months
11/100 conf
+4.3%
Future value 85/100 / Analyst/revision signal 56/100
1 Year
12/100 conf
+7.9%
Future value 85/100 / Analyst/revision signal 56/100
3 Years
16/100 conf
+21.0%
Future value 85/100 / Track record validation 91/100
5 Years
16/100 conf
+31.5%
Future value 85/100 / Track record validation 91/100
10 Years
16/100 conf
+45.6%
Future value 85/100 / Track record validation 91/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Track record validation
91/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Future value
85/100
1/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Leadership depth
65/100
1/1 inputs · 4% dashboard weight
Pressure points
Technical tape
48/100
16/16 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Momentum setup
50/100
10/10 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Quality trend
50/100
0/9 inputs · 14% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
ASML's nearest horizon is hold at +0.1%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
51
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
47 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
20 Years
100/100+8058.7%
+24.6% CAGR
$20.62 to $1,682
2006-09-05 to 2026-09-02
20-year progress favors long-run compounding context when full daily history is incomplete.
10 Years
100/100+1618.4%
+32.9% CAGR
$97.90 to $1,682
2016-09-01 to 2026-09-02
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
85/100+104.7%
+15.4% CAGR
$821.73 to $1,682
2021-09-02 to 2026-09-02
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
100/100+133.3%
+133.4% CAGR
$721.10 to $1,682
2025-09-02 to 2026-09-02
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
46/100-1.7%
CAGR unavailable
$1,712 to $1,682
2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
37/100-3.6%
CAGR unavailable
$1,746 to $1,682
2026-08-26 to 2026-09-02
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
56/100+1.0%
CAGR unavailable
$1,665 to $1,682
2026-09-01 to 2026-09-02
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
19/26 factors
7 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 47/100
29 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 56/100
Consensus 4.02; upside +30.5%; disagreement +119.5%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 91/100
Target move +30.5%; disagreement +119.5%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 64/100
Future 85/100; analyst 56/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 86/100
1M windows 75/100; 3M windows 96/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 40/100
5D return -3.6%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 84/100
Range position +72%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Quality trend
Quality · 50/100
Quality composite 50/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 80/100
Beta 1.365
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 50/100
6 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 65/100
1 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 43/100
90D max drawdown -22%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 23/100
MACD hist -12.05; slope 0.16
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 52/100
RSI 14 42.7; Stoch %K 13
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 48/100
20D +0.2%; ATR 3.2%; %B 0.17
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 53/100
Volume 1.4M vs avg 1.4M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
5030 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 39/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales unavailable
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 1 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
65/100 from 61/90 sourced fields, 33% live source health, and 29 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
9.8% rolling hit rate across 1066 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+16.1%$1,911
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+5.2%$1,731
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-5.7%$1,552
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
51/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+0.1%
$1,648
Drivers Risk brake 63/100 · Technical tape 48/100
7 Days
51/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+0.1%
$1,648
Drivers Risk brake 63/100 · Technical tape 48/100
15 Days
54/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+0.7%
$1,658
Drivers Track record validation 91/100 · Analyst/revision signal 56/100
30 Days
54/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+1.0%
$1,663
Drivers Track record validation 91/100 · Risk brake 63/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
57/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+2.6%
$1,689
Drivers Future value 85/100 · Analyst/revision signal 56/100
6 Months
58/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+4.3%
$1,717
Drivers Future value 85/100 · Analyst/revision signal 56/100
1 Year
59/100 signal · 12/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+7.9%
$1,776
Drivers Future value 85/100 · Analyst/revision signal 56/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
63/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+21.0%
$1,992
Drivers Future value 85/100 · Track record validation 91/100
5 Years
63/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+31.5%
$2,165
Drivers Future value 85/100 · Track record validation 91/100
10 Years
63/100 signal · 16/100 conf · 65/100 facts
+45.6%
$2,397
Drivers Future value 85/100 · Track record validation 91/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
14.3%
217 daily scores · 2.4% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.1% vs +1.0% actual
7 Days
9.0%
211 daily scores · 5.7% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.2% vs -3.3% actual
15 Days
11.8%
203 daily scores · 7.8% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.5% vs -7.1% actual
30 Days
12.2%
188 daily scores · 11.9% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.8% vs -6.5% actual
3 Months
5.2%
155 daily scores · 21.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.6% vs -2.4% actual
6 Months
0.0%
92 daily scores · 41.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.7% vs +20.6% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested11.7%
428 samples · latest 2026-09-01
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested10.9%
602 samples · latest 2026-08-24
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested9.0%
343 samples · latest 2026-07-22
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested10.1%
546 samples · latest 2026-08-12
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for ASML?
TECHi Signal combines available technical, valuation, fundamental, analyst, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal investment advice?
No. Signal labels are research context, not personalized investment advice or an order recommendation.
How is Signal different from Forecast for ASML?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets and scenarios. Signal combines that evidence with technical, fundamental, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs.