NASDAQ · TECHNOLOGY · TECHi Signal
ASML Signal: Positive but selective.
A premium Formula layer for ASML: technical tape, analyst revisions, valuation, fundamentals, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk compressed into an explainable research stance.
Positive but selective
Positive but selective. Strongest input: track record validation (91/100). Main brake: valuation pressure (32/100). Model confidence is 88/100 from 60 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 20 Years +14996.5% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday +0.4%. Rolling price-history validation is 9.4% across 1072 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. Short windows lean hardest on technicals and tape. Longer windows shift toward quality, valuation, leadership, and future value so the score is not just a chart read.
Technical tape
67/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
10/11 inputs available
Forecast layer
69/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
4/4 inputs available
Valuation
32/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Risk brake
72/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
64
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
83/100 factual coverage, 43% live-feed health.
Horizon read
Technicals lead the short windows.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
88/100 confidence
+3.0%
Technical tape 67/100 / Momentum setup 68/100 / Risk brake 72/100
7 Days
88/100 confidence
+6.1%
Technical tape 67/100 / Momentum setup 68/100 / News sentiment 67/100
15 Days
88/100 confidence
+8.1%
Technical tape 67/100 / Momentum setup 68/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
30 Days
87/100 confidence
+11.4%
Technical tape 67/100 / Momentum setup 68/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Track record validation
91/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
Risk brake
72/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
Analyst/revision signal
69/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
Pressure points
Valuation pressure
32/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
Leadership depth
50/100
Rewards leadership visibility across finance, operations, technology, product, and go-to-market roles.
Social/developer traction
50/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
Source layers
Signal is built from the quote stack, not a single widget.
Jump to the underlying pages when you want to inspect the raw inputs behind the Formula score.
Technicals
67/100
Trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving-average, volume, volatility, and drawdown signals.
Forecast
69/100
Targets, ratings, estimate revisions, scenario math, and analyst dispersion.
Statistics
32/100
Valuation, margins, balance-sheet quality, beta, liquidity, and ratios.
News
67/100
Headline tone, catalysts, market narrative, and editorial research context.
Formula lab
Full score, factors, horizons, scenarios, and validation.
TECHi Signal
Positive but selective
Positive but selective. Strongest input: track record validation (91/100). Main brake: valuation pressure (32/100). Model confidence is 88/100 from 60 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 20 Years +14996.5% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday +0.4%. Rolling price-history validation is 9.4% across 1072 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots.
64
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
High confidence
60 of 68 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns feeding Signal
20Y to 1D
20 Years
100/100+14996.5%
+28.5% CAGR
$10.68 to $1,613
2006-05-30 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
10 Years
100/100+1670.7%
+33.3% CAGR
$91.08 to $1,613
2016-05-27 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
5 Years
96/100+151.1%
+20.2% CAGR
$642.22 to $1,613
2021-05-28 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
1 Year
100/100+117.6%
+117.7% CAGR
$741.20 to $1,613
2025-05-29 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
Last month
88/100+15.7%
CAGR pending
$1,394 to $1,613
2026-04-29 to 2026-05-29
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Last week
55/100+1.3%
CAGR pending
$1,592 to $1,613
2026-05-21 to 2026-05-29
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Yesterday
53/100+0.4%
CAGR pending
$1,606 to $1,613
2026-05-28 to 2026-05-29
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
A-Z factor map
Every scoring input shown
26 factors
Analyst conviction
External view · 69/100
Consensus 3.98; upside +3.4%
Uses consensus, target spread, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Beta risk
Risk · 80/100
Beta 1.373
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 88/100
Current 1.36x; cash/debt 4.77x
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 54/100
90D max drawdown -17.9%
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Earnings accuracy
Fundamental proof · 81/100
Positive EPS surprise rate 81/100
Grades whether reported earnings have beaten estimates when history is available.
Free cash flow
Quality · 6/100
FCF margin -7.7%; yield -0.4%
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Growth pulse
Growth · 48/100
Revenue +13.2%; EPS +19.2%
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
History depth
Validation · 100/100
6684 closes analyzed
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Implied upside
External view · 55/100
Target spread +3.4%
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote.
Jump signal
Momentum · 54/100
5D return +1.3%
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
Key margins
Quality · 86/100
Gross +52.6%; operating +36%
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
MACD pressure
Technicals · 67/100
MACD histogram 5.13
Reads whether trend momentum is accelerating or fading.
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; pending
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Operating leverage
Quality · 100/100
Operating margin +36%
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
PE and PEG
Valuation · 38/100
Forward PE 44.44x; PEG 2.42x; EV/Sales 15.67x
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Quality trend
Quality · 61/100
Quality composite 61/100
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
RSI balance
Technicals · 88/100
RSI 14 52.1
Rewards constructive momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical tape
Technicals · 67/100
20D +12.1%; 60D +15.5%
Blends returns, averages, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 65/100
Future 64/100; analyst 69/100
Combines internal future-value signal with outside target support.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · Pending
Volume 1.1M vs avg Pending
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
52-week position
Momentum · 76/100
Range position +95.7%
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Execution roadmap
Strategic · Pending
0 roadmap items
Uses roadmap impact and horizon breadth for forward-value context.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 67/100
1M windows 76/100; 3M windows 96/100
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 61/100
11 missing fields
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
Composite formula
12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 14% quality, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 6% sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer, 7% risk brake.
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens pending.
Factual coverage
83/100 from 101/112 sourced fields, 43% live feed health, and 11 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
9.4% rolling hit rate across 1072 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+20.6%$1,946
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+8.7%$1,754
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-2.2%$1,577
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Buy, hold, or sell research stance by timeframe
Each row changes the formula weights: short windows lean on technicals and tape; long windows lean on quality, valuation, leadership, and future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
68/100 signal · 88/100 conf · 83/100 facts
11.5% hit · 218 scored
+3.0%
$1,661
Basis Technical tape 67/100 · Momentum setup 68/100 · Risk brake 72/100. Intraday-sensitive. Treat as tape risk, not a forecast.
7 Days
68/100 signal · 88/100 conf · 83/100 facts
9.4% hit · 212 scored
+6.1%
$1,711
Basis Technical tape 67/100 · Momentum setup 68/100 · News sentiment 67/100. One-week setup. News and technical reversals can dominate fundamentals.
15 Days
66/100 signal · 88/100 conf · 83/100 facts
14.2% hit · 204 scored
+8.1%
$1,743
Basis Technical tape 67/100 · Momentum setup 68/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100. Short swing setup. Earnings dates and macro prints can overwhelm the model.
30 Days
65/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
11.1% hit · 189 scored
+11.4%
$1,797
Basis Technical tape 67/100 · Momentum setup 68/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100. One-month setup. Best read with earnings calendar and options positioning.
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
64/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
3.8% hit · 156 scored
+16.6%
$1,880
Basis Track record validation 91/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100 · Momentum setup 68/100. Quarterly setup. Guidance, margin trend, and estimate revisions matter most.
6 Months
64/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
0.0% hit · 93 scored
+23.7%
$1,995
Basis Track record validation 91/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100 · Valuation pressure 32/100. Two-quarter setup. Watch estimate revisions and balance-sheet risk.
1 Year
62/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+33.0%
$2,145
Basis Track record validation 91/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100 · Valuation pressure 32/100. Twelve-month research signal. Compare with analyst targets and filings.
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
61/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+55.8%
$2,513
Basis Track record validation 91/100 · Valuation pressure 32/100 · Future value 64/100. Multi-year thesis signal. Execution quality matters more than current tape.
5 Years
61/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+83.7%
$2,963
Basis Track record validation 91/100 · Future value 64/100 · Quality trend 61/100. Long-term compounding signal. Needs repeated validation after each filing cycle.
10 Years
62/100 signal · 87/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+131.9%
$3,740
Basis Track record validation 91/100 · Future value 64/100 · Quality trend 61/100. Decade thesis signal. This is strategic durability, not a price target.
Model validation
Daily scoring history by horizon and field
The 1-day model is rescored for every available close. Longer horizons are scored when enough future sessions have matured; strategic factors stay pending until daily snapshots are stored.
1 Day
11.5%
218 daily scores · 2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.8% vs +0.4% actual
7 Days
9.4%
212 daily scores · 5.5% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.4% vs +10.5% actual
15 Days
14.2%
204 daily scores · 8.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.3% vs +6.3% actual
30 Days
11.1%
189 daily scores · 13.7% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.7% vs +14.6% actual
3 Months
3.8%
156 daily scores · 25.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.8% vs +11.4% actual
6 Months
0.0%
93 daily scores · 63.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.7% vs +61.3% actual
1 Year
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
3 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
5 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
10 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
Technical tape
Scored10.5%
430 samples · latest 2026-05-28
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Scored11.5%
605 samples · latest 2026-05-19
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Scored7.8%
345 samples · latest 2026-04-16
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Quality trend
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily saved fundamentals snapshots to grade whether margin, ROE/ROA, and cash-flow quality predicted later returns.
Future value
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily saved roadmap and strategic-impact snapshots before historical correctness can be scored.
Valuation pressure
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs historical valuation snapshots so the model can compare multiple compression/expansion against later returns.
Analyst/revision signal
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily analyst target, revision, and earnings-estimate snapshots to score upgrade/downgrade correctness.
News sentiment
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily sentiment snapshots; current page has 8 headline inputs but not a stored historical sentiment series.
Leadership depth
PendingPending
0 samples
Leadership is a slow-moving strategic factor; score it after saved profile changes and multi-quarter outcomes.
Social/developer traction
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs saved social/developer follower and engagement snapshots before trend correctness can be graded.
Risk brake
Scored10.2%
549 samples · latest 2026-05-07
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Technical tape
5D/20D/60D returns + SMA 20/50/200 + RSI 14 + MACD + volume + volatility
67/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
10/11 inputs available
Momentum setup
Range position + price vs averages + session move + 20D/60D returns + liquidity multiple
68/100
Rewards confirmed trend, but trims extremes near the top of the range.
7/8 inputs available
Track record validation
All-time CAGR + one-year positive windows + EPS surprise hit rate + distance from all-time high + listing depth
91/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
8/8 inputs available
Quality trend
Margins + ROE/ROA + revenue growth + earnings growth + free-cash-flow conversion
61/100
Looks for a business that can convert growth into durable profit, cash flow, and returns.
9/9 inputs available
Future value
Product roadmap + human impact + forward growth estimates + capital runway
64/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
5/7 inputs available
Valuation pressure
Forward/trailing multiple + price/sales + price/book + EV/sales + PEG + FCF yield + target spread
32/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Analyst/revision signal
Consensus score + implied upside + latest EPS surprise + EPS estimate revisions
69/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
4/4 inputs available
News sentiment
Average news sentiment score + dominant label + current headline breadth
67/100
Captures current narrative pressure without letting headlines dominate the model.
1/3 inputs available
Leadership depth
CEO + CFO/COO/CTO/CPO/CMO coverage + named executive depth
50/100
Rewards leadership visibility across finance, operations, technology, product, and go-to-market roles.
0/1 inputs available
Social/developer traction
X/Twitter + GitHub + LinkedIn + YouTube + other public audience signals
50/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
0/1 inputs available
Risk brake
Beta + leverage + liquidity + size + volatility + drawdown + history + missing fields
72/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
Composite = 12% technical tape + 12% momentum + 12% track record validation + 14% quality + 11% future value + 10% valuation + 10% analyst/revision + 6% sentiment + 4% leadership + 2% social/developer traction + 7% risk brake, confidence-adjusted toward neutral when fields are missing.
Scenario prices blend live market fields with roadmap, leadership, human-impact, and social/developer inputs; they are not analyst price targets.
Buy/Hold/Sell is the formula label for the selected horizon, not personal financial advice. Use it beside filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
0 roadmap inputs in the future-value lens.
0 named C-suite roles tracked.
0 social and developer channels available.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for ASML?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect ASML's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for ASML?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.