NYSE · FINANCIAL SERVICES · TECHi Signal
American Express Company (AXP) Stock Signal
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for AXP.
Start here
AXP: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Track record validation (79/100) is the strongest signal; news sentiment (33/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 59/100 from 68 of 76 available inputs and a 78% freshness factor; 8 inputs are missing, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Analyst disagreement penalty is applied through the confidence model; the Analyst View card owns the published spread. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 10 Years +532.4% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday -0.1%. Rolling price-history validation is 17.9% across 1072 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. It ranks #52/121 across fresh TECHi snapshots and #1/1 in Financial Services. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
55/100
Low confidence
Inputs
68/76
85/100 factual coverage
Universe
#52/121
58/100 snapshot percentile
Nearest
Hold
1 Day +0.6%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
64/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
58/100
4/5 inputs
Valuation
67/100
8/8 inputs
Risk brake
63/100
8/8 inputs
55
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
85/100 factual coverage, 53% live source health.
Neon snapshot universe
AXP against fresh TECHi coverage.
Peer ranks are recalculated from fresh quote snapshots using a bounded scalar score, so the context moves when the underlying data moves without slowing the page.
Universe rank
#52/121
58/100 percentile among scored fresh snapshots.
Sector rank
#1/1
Financial Services coverage cohort.
Fresh symbols
121
120 Neon rows read in the 7-day window.
Freshest pull
Jun 18, 2026
AXP model as of Jun 17, 2026.
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
53/100 conf
+0.6%
Technical tape 64/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
7 Days
53/100 conf
+1.1%
Technical tape 64/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
15 Days
53/100 conf
+2.0%
Technical tape 64/100 / Track record validation 79/100
30 Days
58/100 conf
+3.0%
Technical tape 64/100 / Valuation pressure 67/100
3 Months
58/100 conf
+3.2%
Valuation pressure 67/100 / Technical tape 64/100
6 Months
58/100 conf
+4.0%
Valuation pressure 67/100 / Future value 40/100
1 Year
60/100 conf
+6.4%
Valuation pressure 67/100 / Future value 40/100
3 Years
62/100 conf
+9.9%
Valuation pressure 67/100 / Future value 40/100
5 Years
62/100 conf
+14.8%
Valuation pressure 67/100 / Future value 40/100
10 Years
62/100 conf
+17.2%
Future value 40/100 / Quality trend 56/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Track record validation
79/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Valuation pressure
67/100
8/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Technical tape
64/100
16/16 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Pressure points
News sentiment
33/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Future value
40/100
5/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Leadership depth
50/100
0/1 inputs · 4% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
AXP's nearest horizon is hold at +0.6%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
55
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
68 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
20 Years
78/100+781.2%
+11.5% CAGR
$38.64 to $340.54
2006-06-19 to 2026-06-17
20-year progress favors archived CAGR context when tape-only windows are incomplete.
10 Years
100/100+532.4%
+20.3% CAGR
$53.85 to $340.54
2016-06-16 to 2026-06-17
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
90/100+123.2%
+17.4% CAGR
$152.59 to $340.54
2021-06-17 to 2026-06-17
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
72/100+17.5%
+17.5% CAGR
$289.77 to $340.54
2025-06-17 to 2026-06-17
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
72/100+9.1%
CAGR unavailable
$312.24 to $340.54
2026-05-18 to 2026-06-17
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
81/100+8.7%
CAGR unavailable
$313.34 to $340.54
2026-06-10 to 2026-06-17
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
50/100-0.1%
CAGR unavailable
$340.74 to $340.54
2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
24/26 factors
2 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 33/100
Current 0.35x; cash/debt 0.83x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 64/100
8 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 58/100
Consensus 3.52; upside +6.3%; disagreement +48.5%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 58/100
Target move +6.3%; disagreement +48.5%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 51/100
Future 40/100; analyst 58/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Growth pulse
Growth · 46/100
Revenue +11.6%; EPS +17.6%
Method
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 50/100
1M windows 53/100; 3M windows 55/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 73/100
5D return +8.7%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 74/100
Range position +54.8%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Free cash flow
Quality · 30/100
FCF margin +3.9%; yield +1.2%
Method
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Key margins
Quality · 73/100
Gross +62.8%; operating +21.2%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 73/100
Operating margin +21.2%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 56/100
Quality composite 56/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 90/100
Beta 1.058
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 33/100
4 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 49/100
90D max drawdown -19.5%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 81/100
MACD hist 3.5; slope 0.32
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 67/100
RSI 14 69.1; Stoch %K 86.3
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 64/100
20D +10.1%; ATR 2.3%; %B 1.07
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (below), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 54/100
Volume 3.3M vs avg 3.1M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
5031 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 77/100
Forward PE 19.16x; PEG 1.6x; EV/Sales 3.9x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
85/100 from 100/108 sourced fields, 53% live source health, and 8 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
17.9% rolling hit rate across 1072 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+11.9%$380.97
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+3.0%$350.72
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-5.5%$321.89
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
59/100 signal · 53/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+0.6%
$342.58
Drivers Technical tape 64/100 · Momentum setup 61/100
7 Days
58/100 signal · 53/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+1.1%
$344.29
Drivers Technical tape 64/100 · Momentum setup 61/100
15 Days
60/100 signal · 53/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+2.0%
$347.35
Drivers Technical tape 64/100 · Track record validation 79/100
30 Days
60/100 signal · 58/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+3.0%
$350.76
Drivers Technical tape 64/100 · Valuation pressure 67/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
57/100 signal · 58/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+3.2%
$351.44
Drivers Valuation pressure 67/100 · Technical tape 64/100
6 Months
56/100 signal · 58/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+4.0%
$354.16
Drivers Valuation pressure 67/100 · Future value 40/100
1 Year
56/100 signal · 60/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+6.4%
$362.33
Drivers Valuation pressure 67/100 · Future value 40/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
55/100 signal · 62/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+9.9%
$374.25
Drivers Valuation pressure 67/100 · Future value 40/100
5 Years
55/100 signal · 62/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+14.8%
$390.94
Drivers Valuation pressure 67/100 · Future value 40/100
10 Years
54/100 signal · 62/100 conf · 85/100 facts
+17.2%
$399.11
Drivers Future value 40/100 · Quality trend 56/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily snapshots. Unmatured and multi-year lanes are still processing.
1 Day
24.3%
218 daily scores · 1.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.9% vs -0.1% actual
7 Days
18.9%
212 daily scores · 3.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.0% vs +9.0% actual
15 Days
17.2%
204 daily scores · 5.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.3% vs +9.0% actual
30 Days
12.2%
189 daily scores · 7.3% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.0% vs +7.8% actual
3 Months
17.3%
156 daily scores · 11.7% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.4% vs +16.0% actual
6 Months
15.1%
93 daily scores · 11.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.7% vs -10.5% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validation lanes need daily factor snapshots before TECHi shows historical accuracy for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested21.6%
430 samples · latest 2026-06-16
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested16.2%
605 samples · latest 2026-06-08
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested14.5%
345 samples · latest 2026-05-05
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested15.5%
549 samples · latest 2026-05-27
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for AXP?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for American Express Company (AXP). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect AXP's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for AXP?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.