NasdaqGS · Technology · TECHi Signal
Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Rating & Risk Score
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for MSTR.
Start here
MSTR: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Future value (100/100) is the strongest signal; news sentiment (0/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 14/100 — some inputs are unavailable, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 10 Years +741.3% total; yesterday -1.4%. Comparable past signals have verified against subsequent prices 15.3% of the time. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
51/100
Low confidence
Inputs
45/76
57/100 factual coverage
Universe
Refreshing
Peer rank unavailable
Nearest
Hold
1 Day +0.1%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
62/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
33/100
3/5 inputs
Valuation
100/100
1/8 inputs
Risk brake
37/100
6/8 inputs
51
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
57/100 factual coverage, 12% live source health.
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
9/100 conf
+0.1%
News sentiment 0/100 / Technical tape 62/100
7 Days
9/100 conf
0.0%
News sentiment 0/100 / Technical tape 62/100
15 Days
9/100 conf
+0.6%
News sentiment 0/100 / Valuation pressure 100/100
30 Days
11/100 conf
+1.0%
Valuation pressure 100/100 / News sentiment 0/100
3 Months
11/100 conf
+5.1%
Valuation pressure 100/100 / Future value 100/100
6 Months
11/100 conf
+8.0%
Valuation pressure 100/100 / Future value 100/100
1 Year
13/100 conf
+14.2%
Valuation pressure 100/100 / Future value 100/100
3 Years
15/100 conf
+32.7%
Future value 100/100 / Valuation pressure 100/100
5 Years
15/100 conf
+49.0%
Future value 100/100 / Valuation pressure 100/100
10 Years
15/100 conf
+70.8%
Future value 100/100 / Valuation pressure 100/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Future value
100/100
1/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Valuation pressure
100/100
1/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Momentum setup
69/100
10/10 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Pressure points
News sentiment
0/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Analyst/revision signal
33/100
3/5 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Risk brake
37/100
6/8 inputs · 7% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
MSTR's nearest horizon is hold at +0.1%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
51
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
45 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
20 Years
85/100+1439.6%
+14.7% CAGR
$9.28 to $142.84
2006-09-05 to 2026-09-04
20-year progress favors long-run compounding context when full daily history is incomplete.
10 Years
100/100+741.3%
+23.7% CAGR
$16.98 to $142.84
2016-09-02 to 2026-09-04
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
84/100+100.5%
+14.9% CAGR
$71.23 to $142.84
2021-09-03 to 2026-09-04
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
0/100-56.4%
-56.4% CAGR
$327.59 to $142.84
2025-09-04 to 2026-09-04
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
100/100+47.5%
CAGR unavailable
$96.85 to $142.84
2026-08-06 to 2026-09-04
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
94/100+12.2%
CAGR unavailable
$127.31 to $142.84
2026-08-28 to 2026-09-04
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
42/100-1.4%
CAGR unavailable
$144.82 to $142.84
2026-09-03 to 2026-09-04
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
19/26 factors
7 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 34/100
33 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 33/100
Consensus 0; upside +57.2%; disagreement +217%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 100/100
Target move +57.2%; disagreement +217%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 61/100
Future 100/100; analyst 33/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 24/100
1M windows 32/100; 3M windows 16/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 83/100
5D return +12.2%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 54/100
Range position +21.5%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Quality trend
Quality · 50/100
Quality composite 50/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 9/100
Beta 3.597
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 0/100
0 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 12/100
90D max drawdown -58%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 81/100
MACD hist 2.71; slope 0.11
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 69/100
RSI 14 66.2; Stoch %K 96
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 62/100
20D +42.8%; ATR 6.1%; %B 0.9
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (below), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 44/100
Volume 18.1M vs avg 23.6M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
5032 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 100/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales unavailable
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
57/100 from 49/82 sourced fields, 12% live source health, and 33 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
15.3% rolling hit rate across 1078 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+28.7%$183.81
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+5.7%$150.99
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-18.5%$116.48
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
52/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+0.1%
$142.98
Drivers News sentiment 0/100 · Technical tape 62/100
7 Days
50/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 57/100 facts
0.0%
$142.84
Drivers News sentiment 0/100 · Technical tape 62/100
15 Days
53/100 signal · 9/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+0.6%
$143.70
Drivers News sentiment 0/100 · Valuation pressure 100/100
30 Days
53/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+1.0%
$144.27
Drivers Valuation pressure 100/100 · News sentiment 0/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
60/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+5.1%
$150.12
Drivers Valuation pressure 100/100 · Future value 100/100
6 Months
61/100 signal · 11/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+8.0%
$154.27
Drivers Valuation pressure 100/100 · Future value 100/100
1 Year
62/100 signal · 13/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+14.2%
$163.12
Drivers Valuation pressure 100/100 · Future value 100/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
65/100 signal · 15/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+32.7%
$189.55
Drivers Future value 100/100 · Valuation pressure 100/100
5 Years
65/100 signal · 15/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+49.0%
$212.83
Drivers Future value 100/100 · Valuation pressure 100/100
10 Years
65/100 signal · 15/100 conf · 57/100 facts
+70.8%
$243.97
Drivers Future value 100/100 · Valuation pressure 100/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
22.8%
219 daily scores · 4.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.7% vs -1.4% actual
7 Days
22.1%
213 daily scores · 10.0% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.1% vs +16.0% actual
15 Days
20.0%
205 daily scores · 15.9% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.9% vs +53.5% actual
30 Days
7.4%
190 daily scores · 22.0% avg error
Latest: Hold -1.2% vs +55.8% actual
3 Months
4.5%
157 daily scores · 27.5% avg error
Latest: Hold -2.6% vs +18.6% actual
6 Months
6.4%
94 daily scores · 26.7% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.7% vs +7.0% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested22.5%
432 samples · latest 2026-09-03
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested16.8%
608 samples · latest 2026-08-26
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested6.1%
347 samples · latest 2026-07-24
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested11.3%
552 samples · latest 2026-08-14
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for MSTR?
TECHi Signal combines available technical, valuation, fundamental, analyst, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs for Strategy Inc (MSTR) into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal investment advice?
No. Signal labels are research context, not personalized investment advice or an order recommendation.
How is Signal different from Forecast for MSTR?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets and scenarios. Signal combines that evidence with technical, fundamental, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs.