NYSE · Energy · Forecast & analysis
Vistra Corp (VST) Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings
Median target, high/low range, buy/hold/sell mix, conviction spread, and bull/base/bear scenarios from the latest analyst data.
Section freshness
Price Jul 29, 4:00 PM EDT · Statements Mar 30, 8:00 PM EDT
Forecast read
VST target implies +54.75% from current.
Use this dashboard to see whether Wall Street expects VST to grow, stall, or drop before you dive into the raw financial data.
Price target map
Today to 12 months out
Data last updated: Jul 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Median target
$221.00
+54.75% from current
Consensus
Buy
24 analysts tracked
Rating score
4.21
Analyst consensus score on 1-5 scale
Dispersion
0.58
Moderate Consensus Divergence
- High target
- $320.00
- +124.07% bull case
- Low target
- $106.00
- -25.78% bear case
- Analyst disagreement
- +149.85%
- High target minus low target, divided by current price
TECHi take
VST consensus has a target, but the rating mix still matters.
TECHi Markets Desk · Jul 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
TECHi is tracking 24 analyst ratings on Vistra Corp, with consensus at Buy and a rating score of 4.21. Dispersion tells you whether that consensus is broad or clustered.
The primary target is $221.00, implying +54.75% from the latest quoted price. TECHi still separates the base target from the bull and bear range because the spread is what tells investors whether analysts agree or are simply clustering around a headline number.
Use the sections below to compare the rating split, estimate revisions, and peer forecasts. When target data is available, the scenario view expands into explicit bull, base, and bear cases with the high and low targets shown below.
TECHi Signal model
Forecast math with source coverage and horizon history.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
52
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
64 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
10 Years
100/100+1159.6%
+29.5% CAGR
$11.34 to $142.81
2016-10-05 to 2026-07-29
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
100/100+708.4%
+51.9% CAGR
$17.67 to $142.81
2021-07-29 to 2026-07-29
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
16/100-27.5%
-27.5% CAGR
$196.97 to $142.81
2025-07-29 to 2026-07-29
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
21/100-12.1%
CAGR unavailable
$162.38 to $142.81
2026-06-29 to 2026-07-29
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
0/100-14.4%
CAGR unavailable
$166.74 to $142.81
2026-07-22 to 2026-07-29
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
26/100-3.9%
CAGR unavailable
$148.64 to $142.81
2026-07-28 to 2026-07-29
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
1 empty progress windows are hidden until enough closes exist.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
24/26 factors
2 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 16/100
Current 0.9x; cash/debt 0.04x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 41/100
21 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 60/100
Consensus 4.21; upside +56%; disagreement +149.8%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 100/100
Target move +56%; disagreement +149.8%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 59/100
Future 58/100; analyst 60/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Growth pulse
Growth · 75/100
Revenue +17.7%; EPS +408.6%
Method
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 51/100
1M windows 36/100; 3M windows 17/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 11/100
5D return -14.4%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 37/100
Range position +11.6%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Free cash flow
Quality · 29/100
FCF margin +1.7%; yield +0.7%
Method
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Key margins
Quality · 59/100
Gross unavailable; operating +19.2%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 68/100
Operating margin +19.2%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 58/100
Quality composite 58/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 79/100
Beta 1.409
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 50/100
90D max drawdown -19.1%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 15/100
MACD hist -1.56; slope -0.92
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 38/100
RSI 14 36.5; Stoch %K 2.4
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 39/100
20D -10%; ATR 5.2%; %B -0.11
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (below), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 53/100
Volume 4.4M vs avg 4.3M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
2466 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 73/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales 3.74x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
72/100 from 80/101 sourced fields, 33% live source health, and 21 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
13.4% rolling hit rate across 1072 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+14.8%$163.98
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+3.6%$147.88
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-8.2%$131.10
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
44/100 signal · 18/100 conf · 72/100 facts
-0.4%
$142.24
Drivers Technical tape 39/100 · Momentum setup 36/100
7 Days
45/100 signal · 18/100 conf · 72/100 facts
-0.7%
$141.81
Drivers Technical tape 39/100 · Momentum setup 36/100
15 Days
51/100 signal · 18/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+0.2%
$143.10
Drivers Technical tape 39/100 · Momentum setup 36/100
30 Days
52/100 signal · 21/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+0.6%
$143.67
Drivers Momentum setup 36/100 · Technical tape 39/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
54/100 signal · 21/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+1.9%
$145.52
Drivers Valuation pressure 65/100 · Analyst/revision signal 60/100
6 Months
56/100 signal · 21/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+4.0%
$148.52
Drivers Valuation pressure 65/100 · Quality trend 58/100
1 Year
56/100 signal · 22/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+6.5%
$152.09
Drivers Valuation pressure 65/100 · Quality trend 58/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
58/100 signal · 25/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+16.1%
$165.80
Drivers Quality trend 58/100 · Valuation pressure 65/100
5 Years
57/100 signal · 25/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+21.1%
$172.94
Drivers Quality trend 58/100 · Valuation pressure 65/100
10 Years
57/100 signal · 25/100 conf · 72/100 facts
+30.5%
$186.37
Drivers Quality trend 58/100 · Future value 58/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
10.1%
218 daily scores · 2.5% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.2% vs -3.9% actual
7 Days
7.1%
212 daily scores · 5.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.6% vs -9.6% actual
15 Days
13.7%
204 daily scores · 6.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs -7.8% actual
30 Days
15.9%
189 daily scores · 7.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.0% vs -6.8% actual
3 Months
23.7%
156 daily scores · 9.7% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.3% vs -11.2% actual
6 Months
12.9%
93 daily scores · 14.5% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs -12.8% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested8.6%
430 samples · latest 2026-07-28
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested12.1%
605 samples · latest 2026-07-20
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested19.4%
345 samples · latest 2026-06-15
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested17.3%
549 samples · latest 2026-07-08
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Analyst consensus
What the street actually thinks right now.
VST currently has 24 analyst entries with a live Wall Street consensus score of 4.21 (Buy).
Dispersion score: 0.58 · Moderate Consensus Divergence.
Adjusted score for spread: 3.86 · used to reduce false certainty when recommendations are split.
Consensus read: Lopsided bullish
Signal-vs-consensus divergence
VST current TECHi Signal stance against analyst consensus.
Consensus: 4.21 (Buy) · Signal: 3.08 (Balanced watch) · gap -1.13 on the 1-5 scale
Dispersion reliability: usable. If consensus is split, a small gap is still meaningful, while a wide gap usually means framing differences.
TECHi Signal is more cautious than consensus.
TECHi Signal can diverge from consensus on 3M+ horizons because it blends financial data, governance signals, leadership quality, and quant scores (Altman Z, ROIC, Rule of 40, FCF yield) alongside standard analyst inputs.
- Consensus
- Buy
- Rating score
- 4.21
- 1 sell to 5 strong buy scale
- Adjusted score
- 3.86
- Disciplined by disagreement
- Buy weight
- 92%
- 22 buy / strong buy
- Hold + Sell pressure
- 8%
- 2 hold + sell
Current distribution of recommendations in TECHi’s analyst dataset.
Analyst strength
Buy and strong-buy split
Buy minus sell
Analyst indecision proxy
Forecast math
The real risk and reward behind the numbers.
These numbers answer one retail-investor question: if you buy today, how much reward or risk are analysts putting on the table?
Moves vs current price
Primary target vs live price
Highest target vs live price
Lowest target vs live price
Spread & asymmetry
Gap between the highest and lowest targets
Bull upside divided by bear downside
Bull target above the base target
Bear target below the base target
Scenario framing
What the VST target range actually means for each scenario.
Bull case
$320.00
+124.07% from current
Highest active analyst target. Represents the most optimistic execution scenario currently modeled by sell-side desks.
In plain English: the best-case number on the table today if everything goes perfectly.
Base case
$221.00
+54.75% from current
Median 12-month target from the latest sell-side data.
In plain English: this is the single number most analysts are clustering around right now.
Bear case
$106.00
-25.78% from current
Lowest active target. Captures the bear-case execution risk in current models — not necessarily a price the market expects to print.
In plain English: the worst-case number analysts are still publishing, even if they don’t expect it to happen.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is the price target for VST?
The current primary VST target is $221.00 (+54.75% from the latest quote).
What is the analyst consensus on VST?
VST's current analyst consensus is Buy across 24 tracked ratings.
What is VST's 12-month forecast?
The VST forecast page shows the available low, primary, and high 12-month targets beside scenario and risk context.
What analysis is available for VST?
The VST Forecast and Analysis page combines the fresh rating mix, target range, scenarios, catalysts, and risk context currently available for Vistra Corp.
Does TECHi publish its own VST research?
Related TECHi analyst notes appear when a reviewed report is connected to VST; consensus-provider data remains separately identified.