NYSE · Energy · TECHi Signal
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Signal
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for COP.
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COP: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Valuation pressure (80/100) is the strongest signal; news sentiment (8/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 54/100 from 67 of 76 available inputs and a 78% freshness factor; 9 inputs are missing, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Analyst disagreement penalty is applied through the confidence model; the Analyst View card owns the published spread. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 5 Years +116.3% total (88/100 progress score); yesterday +0.2%. Rolling price-history validation is 14.5% across 1066 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
52/100
Low confidence
Inputs
67/76
78/100 factual coverage
Universe
Refreshing
Peer rank unavailable
Nearest
Hold
1 Day -0.2%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
48/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
69/100
3/5 inputs
Valuation
80/100
8/8 inputs
Risk brake
69/100
8/8 inputs
52
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
78/100 factual coverage, 47% live source health.
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
47/100 conf
-0.2%
News sentiment 8/100 / Risk brake 69/100
7 Days
47/100 conf
-0.2%
News sentiment 8/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
15 Days
47/100 conf
+0.1%
News sentiment 8/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
30 Days
52/100 conf
+0.7%
News sentiment 8/100 / Valuation pressure 80/100
3 Months
52/100 conf
+0.8%
Valuation pressure 80/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
6 Months
52/100 conf
+1.2%
Valuation pressure 80/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
1 Year
53/100 conf
+1.9%
Valuation pressure 80/100 / Analyst/revision signal 69/100
3 Years
55/100 conf
+2.4%
Valuation pressure 80/100 / Quality trend 39/100
5 Years
55/100 conf
+1.8%
Valuation pressure 80/100 / Quality trend 39/100
10 Years
55/100 conf
0.0%
Quality trend 39/100 / Valuation pressure 80/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Valuation pressure
80/100
8/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Track record validation
77/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Analyst/revision signal
69/100
3/5 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Pressure points
News sentiment
8/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Quality trend
39/100
9/9 inputs · 14% dashboard weight
Future value
39/100
5/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
COP's nearest horizon is hold at -0.2%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
52
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
67 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
20 Years
69/100+355.1%
+7.9% CAGR
$24.17 to $109.97
2006-06-26 to 2026-06-23
20-year progress favors long-run compounding context when full daily history is incomplete.
10 Years
83/100+240.3%
+13.0% CAGR
$32.31 to $109.97
2016-06-22 to 2026-06-23
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
88/100+116.3%
+16.7% CAGR
$50.84 to $109.97
2021-06-23 to 2026-06-23
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
80/100+23.9%
+23.9% CAGR
$88.77 to $109.97
2025-06-23 to 2026-06-23
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
29/100-8.8%
CAGR unavailable
$120.55 to $109.97
2026-05-21 to 2026-06-23
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
43/100-2.0%
CAGR unavailable
$112.26 to $109.97
2026-06-15 to 2026-06-23
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
52/100+0.2%
CAGR unavailable
$109.70 to $109.97
2026-06-22 to 2026-06-23
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
24/26 factors
2 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 56/100
Current 1.29x; cash/debt 0.28x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 50/100
18 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 69/100
Consensus 3.91; upside +30%; disagreement +56.4%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 91/100
Target move +30%; disagreement +56.4%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 49/100
Future 39/100; analyst 69/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Growth pulse
Growth · 17/100
Revenue -2.5%; EPS -23.4%
Method
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 41/100
1M windows 61/100; 3M windows 68/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 44/100
5D return -2%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 70/100
Range position +48.5%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Free cash flow
Quality · 26/100
FCF margin +2.3%; yield +1%
Method
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Key margins
Quality · 61/100
Gross +45.6%; operating +22.1%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 75/100
Operating margin +22.1%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 39/100
Quality composite 39/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 81/100
Beta 0.106
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 8/100
1 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 51/100
90D max drawdown -18.9%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 26/100
MACD hist -0.74; slope 0.09
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 51/100
RSI 14 39.1; Stoch %K 20.5
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 48/100
20D -8.7%; ATR 3.1%; %B 0.14
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 51/100
Volume 7.1M vs avg 7.3M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
5029 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 86/100
Forward PE 10.46x; PEG 0.91x; EV/Sales 2.59x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
78/100 from 89/107 sourced fields, 47% live source health, and 18 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
14.5% rolling hit rate across 1066 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+5.6%$116.15
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
-0.4%$109.55
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-6.4%$102.95
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
45/100 signal · 47/100 conf · 78/100 facts
-0.2%
$109.75
Drivers News sentiment 8/100 · Risk brake 69/100
7 Days
47/100 signal · 47/100 conf · 78/100 facts
-0.2%
$109.75
Drivers News sentiment 8/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100
15 Days
51/100 signal · 47/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+0.1%
$110.08
Drivers News sentiment 8/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100
30 Days
54/100 signal · 52/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+0.7%
$110.74
Drivers News sentiment 8/100 · Valuation pressure 80/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
53/100 signal · 52/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+0.8%
$110.85
Drivers Valuation pressure 80/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100
6 Months
53/100 signal · 52/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+1.2%
$111.29
Drivers Valuation pressure 80/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100
1 Year
53/100 signal · 53/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+1.9%
$112.06
Drivers Valuation pressure 80/100 · Analyst/revision signal 69/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
52/100 signal · 55/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+2.4%
$112.61
Drivers Valuation pressure 80/100 · Quality trend 39/100
5 Years
51/100 signal · 55/100 conf · 78/100 facts
+1.8%
$111.95
Drivers Valuation pressure 80/100 · Quality trend 39/100
10 Years
50/100 signal · 55/100 conf · 78/100 facts
0.0%
$109.97
Drivers Quality trend 39/100 · Valuation pressure 80/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
18.0%
217 daily scores · 1.6% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.1% vs +0.2% actual
7 Days
7.6%
211 daily scores · 3.9% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs -4.7% actual
15 Days
21.2%
203 daily scores · 5.0% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.5% vs -4.9% actual
30 Days
16.0%
188 daily scores · 8.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.2% vs -2.7% actual
3 Months
16.8%
155 daily scores · 15.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.7% vs -12.9% actual
6 Months
0.0%
92 daily scores · 30.8% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.3% vs +21.1% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested12.9%
428 samples · latest 2026-06-22
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested14.8%
602 samples · latest 2026-06-11
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested16.4%
343 samples · latest 2026-05-08
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested18.2%
546 samples · latest 2026-06-01
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for COP?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for ConocoPhillips (COP). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect COP's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for COP?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.