Ford Motor Co. (F) Stock Rating & Risk Score

What this percent is

A Constructive call counts when the later close rose by more than a small hold band. A Cautious call counts when the later close fell by more than that band. A Neutral call counts when the later close stayed inside the band. The percent is how often that direction matched. It is not a claim that the full model is accurate.

Observations

1078 scored signals across 6 horizons

Sample period

1 Day: 1 trading sessions · 7 Days: 7 trading sessions · 15 Days: 15 trading sessions · 30 Days: 30 trading sessions · 3 Months: 63 trading sessions · 6 Months: 126 trading sessions

Benchmark

Buy-and-hold, a random directional call, and 20-session momentum are scored on these same samples. The S&P 500, a sector ETF, and analyst consensus are not on this replay, so those baselines are not scored. None of this is a walk-forward test or a published universe result.

Same-sample baselines

• 1 Day. Buy and hold hit 39.7% versus model 12.3% (baseline hit rate higher by 27.4 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 12.3% (baseline hit rate higher by 21.0 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 38.4% versus model 12.3% (baseline hit rate higher by 26.1 pts); signed return -0.2% versus model 0.0% (model signed return higher by 0.2 pts)
• 7 Days. Buy and hold hit 41.8% versus model 13.6% (baseline hit rate higher by 28.2 pts); signed return 0.3% versus model -0.2% (baseline signed return higher by 0.5 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 13.6% (baseline hit rate higher by 19.7 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model -0.2% (baseline signed return higher by 0.2 pts) · Simple momentum hit 32.9% versus model 13.6% (baseline hit rate higher by 19.3 pts); signed return -0.8% versus model -0.2% (model signed return higher by 0.6 pts)
• 15 Days. Buy and hold hit 40.5% versus model 22.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 18.5 pts); signed return 0.9% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 0.9 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 22.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 11.3 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 32.7% versus model 22.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 10.7 pts); signed return -1.8% versus model 0.0% (model signed return higher by 1.8 pts)
• 30 Days. Buy and hold hit 48.4% versus model 20.5% (baseline hit rate higher by 27.9 pts); signed return 1.8% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 1.8 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 20.5% (baseline hit rate higher by 12.8 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 34.2% versus model 20.5% (baseline hit rate higher by 13.7 pts); signed return -0.6% versus model 0.0% (model signed return higher by 0.6 pts)
• 3 Months. Buy and hold hit 47.8% versus model 7.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 40.8 pts); signed return 3.6% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 3.6 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 7.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 26.3 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 32.5% versus model 7.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 25.5 pts); signed return -4.5% versus model 0.0% (model signed return higher by 4.5 pts)
• 6 Months. Buy and hold hit 73.4% versus model 26.6% (baseline hit rate higher by 46.8 pts); signed return 9.9% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 9.9 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 26.6% (baseline hit rate higher by 6.7 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 44.7% versus model 26.6% (baseline hit rate higher by 18.1 pts); signed return 1.1% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 1.1 pts)

Calibration error

1 Day 1.8% average absolute error · 7 Days 4.7% average absolute error · 15 Days 6.8% average absolute error · 30 Days 8.5% average absolute error · 3 Months 12.9% average absolute error · 6 Months 8.9% average absolute error

Directional accuracy

16.3% of scored price-direction calls matched the later close

False-positive rate

Not scored yet. This history has no Constructive calls to measure.

Outcome by horizon

1 Day 12.3% on 219 observations · 7 Days 13.6% on 213 observations · 15 Days 22.0% on 205 observations · 30 Days 20.5% on 190 observations · 3 Months 7.0% on 157 observations · 6 Months 26.6% on 94 observations

Sector

Consumer Cyclical. This names the company sector. It is not a sector performance breakdown.

Dates

Methodology reviewed May 28, 2026. Validation dataset updated September 23, 2026. Model version v1.0. These are three different dates.

Out of sample

These figures replay price-derived factors on stored daily closes for this symbol. They are not a walk-forward test, a holdout period, or a separate out-of-sample test. They do not score fundamentals, analyst revisions, or sentiment, and they do not adjust for survivorship or look-ahead bias.

4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.

7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.