Lucid Group (LCID) Stock Rating & Risk Score

What this percent is

A Constructive call counts when the later close rose by more than a small hold band. A Cautious call counts when the later close fell by more than that band. A Neutral call counts when the later close stayed inside the band. The percent is how often that direction matched. It is not a claim that the full model is accurate.

Observations

1078 scored signals across 6 horizons

Sample period

1 Day: 1 trading sessions · 7 Days: 7 trading sessions · 15 Days: 15 trading sessions · 30 Days: 30 trading sessions · 3 Months: 63 trading sessions · 6 Months: 126 trading sessions

Benchmark

Buy-and-hold, a random directional call, and 20-session momentum are scored on these same samples. The S&P 500, a sector ETF, and analyst consensus are not on this replay, so those baselines are not scored. None of this is a walk-forward test or a published universe result.

Same-sample baselines

• 1 Day. Buy and hold hit 40.2% versus model 23.7% (baseline hit rate higher by 16.5 pts); signed return -0.5% versus model -0.1% (model signed return higher by 0.4 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 23.7% (baseline hit rate higher by 9.6 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model -0.1% (baseline signed return higher by 0.1 pts) · Simple momentum hit 53.4% versus model 23.7% (baseline hit rate higher by 29.7 pts); signed return 0.2% versus model -0.1% (baseline signed return higher by 0.3 pts)
• 7 Days. Buy and hold hit 30.0% versus model 19.7% (baseline hit rate higher by 10.3 pts); signed return -3.4% versus model 0.5% (model signed return higher by 3.9 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 19.7% (baseline hit rate higher by 13.6 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.5% (model signed return higher by 0.5 pts) · Simple momentum hit 54.0% versus model 19.7% (baseline hit rate higher by 34.3 pts); signed return 1.6% versus model 0.5% (baseline signed return higher by 1.1 pts)
• 15 Days. Buy and hold hit 23.9% versus model 14.1% (baseline hit rate higher by 9.8 pts); signed return -6.9% versus model -0.1% (model signed return higher by 6.8 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 14.1% (baseline hit rate higher by 19.2 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model -0.1% (baseline signed return higher by 0.1 pts) · Simple momentum hit 56.6% versus model 14.1% (baseline hit rate higher by 42.5 pts); signed return 2.5% versus model -0.1% (baseline signed return higher by 2.6 pts)
• 30 Days. Buy and hold hit 15.8% versus model 11.1% (baseline hit rate higher by 4.7 pts); signed return -12.5% versus model 0.4% (model signed return higher by 12.9 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 11.1% (baseline hit rate higher by 22.2 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.4% (model signed return higher by 0.4 pts) · Simple momentum hit 55.3% versus model 11.1% (baseline hit rate higher by 44.2 pts); signed return -0.7% versus model 0.4% (model signed return higher by 1.1 pts)
• 3 Months. Buy and hold hit 9.6% versus model 4.5% (baseline hit rate higher by 5.1 pts); signed return -23.7% versus model 0.0% (model signed return higher by 23.7 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 4.5% (baseline hit rate higher by 28.8 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 73.2% versus model 4.5% (baseline hit rate higher by 68.7 pts); signed return 14.5% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 14.5 pts)
• 6 Months. Buy and hold hit 0.0% versus model 0.0% (hit rates match); signed return -49.0% versus model 0.0% (model signed return higher by 49.0 pts) · Random directional call hit 33.3% versus model 0.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 33.3 pts); signed return 0.0% versus model 0.0% (signed returns match) · Simple momentum hit 85.1% versus model 0.0% (baseline hit rate higher by 85.1 pts); signed return 34.2% versus model 0.0% (baseline signed return higher by 34.2 pts)

Calibration error

1 Day 4.0% average absolute error · 7 Days 9.6% average absolute error · 15 Days 13.6% average absolute error · 30 Days 19.6% average absolute error · 3 Months 26.0% average absolute error · 6 Months 47.6% average absolute error

Directional accuracy

14.0% of scored price-direction calls matched the later close

False-positive rate

Not scored yet. This history has no Constructive calls to measure.

Outcome by horizon

1 Day 23.7% on 219 observations · 7 Days 19.7% on 213 observations · 15 Days 14.1% on 205 observations · 30 Days 11.1% on 190 observations · 3 Months 4.5% on 157 observations · 6 Months 0.0% on 94 observations

Sector

Consumer Cyclical. This names the company sector. It is not a sector performance breakdown.

Dates

Methodology reviewed May 28, 2026. Validation dataset updated September 23, 2026. Model version v1.0. These are three different dates.

Out of sample

These figures replay price-derived factors on stored daily closes for this symbol. They are not a walk-forward test, a holdout period, or a separate out-of-sample test. They do not score fundamentals, analyst revisions, or sentiment, and they do not adjust for survivorship or look-ahead bias.

4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.

7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.