NASDAQ · TECHNOLOGY · TECHi Signal
Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) Stock Signal
Balanced watch. A premium Formula layer for MCHP: technical tape, analyst revisions, valuation, fundamentals, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk compressed into an explainable research stance.
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MCHP: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Strongest input: analyst/revision signal (87/100). Main brake: quality trend (48/100). Model confidence is 94/100 from 64 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 1 Year +40.9% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday -8.3%. Rolling price-history validation is 15.5% across 1078 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. It ranks #39/121 across fresh TECHi snapshots and #29/79 in Technology. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
60/100
High confidence
Inputs
64/68
89/100 factual coverage
Universe
#39/121
69/100 snapshot percentile
Nearest
Hold
1 Day +2.2%
Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Strongest input: analyst/revision signal (87/100). Main brake: quality trend (48/100). Model confidence is 94/100 from 64 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 1 Year +40.9% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday -8.3%. Rolling price-history validation is 15.5% across 1078 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. Short windows lean hardest on technicals and tape. Longer windows shift toward quality, valuation, leadership, and future value so the score is not just a chart read.
Technical tape
51/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
11/11 inputs available
Forecast layer
87/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
4/4 inputs available
Valuation
49/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Risk brake
67/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
60
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
89/100 factual coverage, 63% live-feed health.
Neon snapshot universe
MCHP against fresh TECHi coverage.
Peer ranks are recalculated from fresh quote snapshots using a bounded scalar score, so the context moves when the underlying data moves without slowing the page.
Universe rank
#39/121
69/100 percentile among scored fresh snapshots.
Sector rank
#29/79
Technology coverage cohort.
Fresh symbols
121
120 Neon rows read in the 7-day window.
Freshest pull
Jun 6, 2026
MCHP model as of Jun 5, 2026.
Nearest Signal comps
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
94/100 conf
+2.2%
Momentum setup 62/100 / Analyst/revision signal 87/100
7 Days
94/100 conf
+4.8%
Analyst/revision signal 87/100 / Momentum setup 62/100
15 Days
94/100 conf
+7.3%
Analyst/revision signal 87/100 / Momentum setup 62/100
30 Days
93/100 conf
+11.9%
Analyst/revision signal 87/100 / Momentum setup 62/100
3 Months
93/100 conf
+18.5%
Analyst/revision signal 87/100 / Track record validation 79/100
6 Months
93/100 conf
+24.2%
Analyst/revision signal 87/100 / Track record validation 79/100
1 Year
93/100 conf
+39.4%
Analyst/revision signal 87/100 / Track record validation 79/100
3 Years
93/100 conf
+52.8%
Track record validation 79/100 / Analyst/revision signal 87/100
5 Years
93/100 conf
+59.5%
Track record validation 79/100 / Risk brake 67/100
10 Years
93/100 conf
+85.9%
Track record validation 79/100 / Risk brake 67/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Analyst/revision signal
87/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
Track record validation
79/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
Risk brake
67/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
Pressure points
Quality trend
48/100
Looks for a business that can convert growth into durable profit, cash flow, and returns.
Future value
49/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
Valuation pressure
49/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
MCHP's nearest horizon is hold at +2.2%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Source layers
Signal is built from the quote stack, not a single widget.
Jump to the underlying pages when you want to inspect the raw inputs behind the Formula score.
Technicals
51/100
Trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving-average, volume, volatility, and drawdown signals.
Forecast
87/100
Targets, ratings, estimate revisions, scenario math, and analyst dispersion.
Statistics
49/100
Valuation, margins, balance-sheet quality, beta, liquidity, and ratios.
News
65/100
Headline tone, catalysts, market narrative, and editorial research context.
Formula lab
Full score, factors, horizons, scenarios, and validation.
Formula outlook
Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Strongest input: analyst/revision signal (87/100). Main brake: quality trend (48/100). Model confidence is 94/100 from 64 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 1 Year +40.9% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday -8.3%. Rolling price-history validation is 15.5% across 1078 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots.
60
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
High confidence
64 of 68 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns feeding Signal
20Y to 1D
20 Years
78/100+828.3%
+11.8% CAGR
$9.52 to $88.34
2006-06-05 to 2026-06-05
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
10 Years
88/100+311.6%
+15.2% CAGR
$21.46 to $88.34
2016-06-03 to 2026-06-05
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
5 Years
61/100+26.4%
+4.8% CAGR
$69.90 to $88.34
2021-06-04 to 2026-06-05
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
1 Year
100/100+40.9%
+40.9% CAGR
$62.71 to $88.34
2025-06-05 to 2026-06-05
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
Last month
17/100-13.7%
CAGR unavailable
$102.42 to $88.34
2026-05-06 to 2026-06-05
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Last week
26/100-6.7%
CAGR unavailable
$94.65 to $88.34
2026-05-29 to 2026-06-05
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Yesterday
0/100-8.3%
CAGR unavailable
$96.30 to $88.34
2026-06-04 to 2026-06-05
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
25/26 factors
1 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Analyst conviction
External view · 87/100
Consensus 3.81; upside +28.9%
Uses consensus, target spread, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Beta risk
Risk · 69/100
Beta 1.725
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 54/100
Current 2.09x; cash/debt 0.04x
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 35/100
90D max drawdown -25.2%
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Earnings accuracy
Fundamental proof · 92/100
Positive EPS surprise rate 92/100
Grades whether reported earnings have beaten estimates when history is available.
Free cash flow
Quality · 55/100
FCF margin +5.2%; yield +0.5%
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Growth pulse
Growth · 37/100
Revenue +35.1%; EPS -81.6%
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
History depth
Validation · 100/100
6689 closes analyzed
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Implied upside
External view · 89/100
Target spread +28.9%
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote.
Jump signal
Momentum · 32/100
5D return -6.7%
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
Key margins
Quality · 58/100
Gross +57.7%; operating +17.1%
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
MACD pressure
Technicals · 12/100
MACD histogram -1.08
Reads whether trend momentum is accelerating or fading.
News tone
Sentiment · 65/100
8 headlines; somewhat-bullish
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Operating leverage
Quality · 63/100
Operating margin +17.1%
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
PE and PEG
Valuation · 50/100
Forward PE 31.25x; PEG 0.35x; EV/Sales 12.28x
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Quality trend
Quality · 48/100
Quality composite 48/100
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
RSI balance
Technicals · 65/100
RSI 14 42.8
Rewards constructive momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical tape
Technicals · 51/100
20D -12.6%; 60D +34.9%
Blends returns, averages, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 61/100
Future 49/100; analyst 87/100
Combines internal future-value signal with outside target support.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 75/100
Volume 19.7M vs avg 11.7M
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
52-week position
Momentum · 82/100
Range position +69.6%
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 47/100
1M windows 57/100; 3M windows 57/100
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 68/100
7 missing fields
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
Composite formula
12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 14% quality, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 6% sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer, 7% risk brake.
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
89/100 from 107/114 sourced fields, 63% live feed health, and 7 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
15.5% rolling hit rate across 1078 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+22.8%$107.90
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+8.6%$95.34
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-5.2%$83.22
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Buy, hold, or sell research stance by timeframe
Each row changes the formula weights: short windows lean on technicals and tape; long windows lean on quality, valuation, leadership, and future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
60/100 signal · 94/100 conf · 89/100 facts
14.2% hit · 219 scored
+2.2%
$89.76
Basis Momentum setup 62/100 · Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · News sentiment 65/100. Intraday-sensitive. Treat as tape risk, not a forecast.
7 Days
61/100 signal · 94/100 conf · 89/100 facts
8.9% hit · 213 scored
+4.8%
$92.05
Basis Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Momentum setup 62/100 · News sentiment 65/100. One-week setup. News and technical reversals can dominate fundamentals.
15 Days
61/100 signal · 94/100 conf · 89/100 facts
15.1% hit · 205 scored
+7.3%
$94.24
Basis Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Momentum setup 62/100 · News sentiment 65/100. Short swing setup. Earnings dates and macro prints can overwhelm the model.
30 Days
62/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
15.3% hit · 190 scored
+11.9%
$98.28
Basis Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Momentum setup 62/100 · News sentiment 65/100. One-month setup. Best read with earnings calendar and options positioning.
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
62/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
22.9% hit · 157 scored
+18.5%
$104.08
Basis Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Track record validation 79/100 · Momentum setup 62/100. Quarterly setup. Guidance, margin trend, and estimate revisions matter most.
6 Months
61/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
22.3% hit · 94 scored
+24.2%
$109.08
Basis Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Track record validation 79/100 · Momentum setup 62/100. Two-quarter setup. Watch estimate revisions and balance-sheet risk.
1 Year
61/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+39.4%
$122.44
Basis Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Track record validation 79/100 · Momentum setup 62/100. Twelve-month research signal. Compare with analyst targets and filings.
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
58/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+52.8%
$134.20
Basis Track record validation 79/100 · Analyst/revision signal 87/100 · Risk brake 67/100. Multi-year thesis signal. Execution quality matters more than current tape.
5 Years
56/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+59.5%
$140.09
Basis Track record validation 79/100 · Risk brake 67/100 · Analyst/revision signal 87/100. Long-term compounding signal. Needs repeated validation after each filing cycle.
10 Years
56/100 signal · 93/100 conf · 89/100 facts
Unavailable hit · 0 scored
+85.9%
$163.28
Basis Track record validation 79/100 · Risk brake 67/100 · Analyst/revision signal 87/100. Decade thesis signal. This is strategic durability, not a price target.
Model validation
Daily scoring history by horizon and field
The 1-day model is rescored for every available close. Longer horizons are scored when enough future sessions have matured; strategic factors stay limited until daily snapshots are stored.
1 Day
14.2%
219 daily scores · 2.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.5% vs -8.3% actual
7 Days
8.9%
213 daily scores · 6.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.0% vs -8.8% actual
15 Days
15.1%
205 daily scores · 10.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.2% vs -8.5% actual
30 Days
15.3%
190 daily scores · 16.9% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.9% vs -2.1% actual
3 Months
22.9%
157 daily scores · 16.4% avg error
Latest: Hold -1.0% vs +37.1% actual
6 Months
22.3%
94 daily scores · 30.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.4% vs +40.4% actual
1 Year
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
3 Years
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
5 Years
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
10 Years
Unavailable
0 daily scores · avg error unavailable
Latest: waiting for matured closes
7 validation lanes need daily factor snapshots before TECHi shows historical accuracy for them.
Technical tape
Scored11.6%
432 samples · latest 2026-06-04
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Scored13.0%
608 samples · latest 2026-05-27
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Scored18.7%
347 samples · latest 2026-04-23
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Scored17.4%
552 samples · latest 2026-05-14
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Technical tape
5D/20D/60D returns + SMA 20/50/200 + RSI 14 + MACD + volume + volatility
51/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
11/11 inputs available
Momentum setup
Range position + price vs averages + session move + 20D/60D returns + liquidity multiple
62/100
Rewards confirmed trend, but trims extremes near the top of the range.
8/8 inputs available
Track record validation
All-time CAGR + one-year positive windows + EPS surprise hit rate + distance from all-time high + listing depth
79/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
8/8 inputs available
Quality trend
Margins + ROE/ROA + revenue growth + earnings growth + free-cash-flow conversion
48/100
Looks for a business that can convert growth into durable profit, cash flow, and returns.
9/9 inputs available
Future value
Product roadmap + human impact + forward growth estimates + capital runway
49/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
5/7 inputs available
Valuation pressure
Forward/trailing multiple + price/sales + price/book + EV/sales + PEG + FCF yield + target spread
49/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Analyst/revision signal
Consensus score + implied upside + latest EPS surprise + EPS estimate revisions
87/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
4/4 inputs available
News sentiment
Average news sentiment score + dominant label + current headline breadth
65/100
Captures current narrative pressure without letting headlines dominate the model.
3/3 inputs available
Leadership depth
CEO + CFO/COO/CTO/CPO/CMO coverage + named executive depth
50/100
Rewards leadership visibility across finance, operations, technology, product, and go-to-market roles.
0/1 inputs available
Social/developer traction
X/Twitter + GitHub + LinkedIn + YouTube + other public audience signals
50/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
0/1 inputs available
Risk brake
Beta + leverage + liquidity + size + volatility + drawdown + history + missing fields
67/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
Composite = 12% technical tape + 12% momentum + 12% track record validation + 14% quality + 11% future value + 10% valuation + 10% analyst/revision + 6% sentiment + 4% leadership + 2% social/developer traction + 7% risk brake, confidence-adjusted toward neutral when fields are missing.
Scenario prices blend live market fields with roadmap, leadership, human-impact, and social/developer inputs; they are not analyst price targets.
Buy/Hold/Sell is the formula label for the selected horizon, not personal financial advice. Use it beside filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
0 roadmap inputs in the future-value lens.
0 named C-suite roles tracked.
0 social and developer channels available.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for MCHP?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect MCHP's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for MCHP?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.