Nvidia just received a wake-up call, following weeks of running up the charts, Nvidia stumbled a bit, proof even tech giants need to take a breather. With hedge funds quietly slipping out the back door and earnings momentum losing steam, investors may want to buckle up, as Nvidia’s stock price is dancing along a delicate line.

Nvidia’s recent rally ran into a speed bump on 16th May, with the stock falling 0.4%, trading at $134.80, as signs emerged of institutional profit-taking and deceleration in near-term momentum. The pullback follows a strong 50% recovery off April lows, powered by speculative enthusiasm and technical strength that saw the stock crossover key moving averages, most notably the widely followed 200-day line. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) almost in overbought range and resistance waiting at $150 and $153, Nvidia might be preparing for a breather.

Technical Momentum

From one point of view, Nvidia has been a standout. The stock recently broke above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, typically regarded as being bullish signs of a robust trend. The rally has been driven by fresh optimism regarding its leadership position in the artificial intelligence (AI) space, especially following a bold deal for a Saudi Arabian AI company.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising towards overheated levels and Nvidia currently resting just below key resistance at $153, analysts expect a potential pullback ahead. Support is still firm at $130, just above its 50-day average, with an even lower level at $115. A fall below $130 would reverse recent gains, while breaking above $153 could lead to $165.

Slowing of Earnings Growth & Institutions Retreat

Behind the scenes, some cracks have begun to emerge though. Nvidia is projected to deliver a 44% profit gain in Q1, solid by most measures but a decisive slowdown from the triple-digit gains investors have become used to. More importantly, analysts are beginning to trim full-year earnings projections for both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 due to the possible cooling in AI infrastructure demand.

Meanwhile, institutional demand for Nvidia seems to be weakening. One of the largest holders is said to be selling a substantial portion of their holding, and Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) assigns Nvidia a lukewarm C- Accumulation/Distribution rating. That’s not a showstopper, but it heralds more selling than buying from mutual funds and other large investors, as five of seven IBD Mutual Fund Index members have reduced their holdings over the past few weeks.

Emerging Consolidation

For the time being, the stock seems poised to move within a $130–$153 range, characterized by a battle between optimistic individual investors and hedging institutions. A break above $153 would position the stock for another leg higher, particularly if Nvidia provides better than expected earnings surprises, new AI innovations, or new international alliances. A breakdown below $130 would push shares towards the $115 mark, historically a strong base for buyers.

Nonetheless, Nvidia’s long-term fundamentals are attractive. With 71% EPS growth and 78% sales growth, combined with its leadership role in AI-powered GPUs and software ecosystems, the firm’s path appears robust, if perhaps temporarily stuck in a cooling cycle. The path to $165 will require more than hysteria, it requires depth, stunner moments, and perhaps fewer institution red flags. Retail buyers may remain bullish, but with no big money fueling the move, Nvidia’s next breakout may not come as quickly as the last one.