NasdaqGS · Technology · TECHi Signal
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Rating & Risk Score
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for MPWR.
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MPWR: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Track record validation (86/100) is the strongest signal; valuation pressure (24/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 40/100 — some inputs are unavailable, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 20 Years +17678.4% total; yesterday -5.8%. Comparable past signals have verified against subsequent prices 9.5% of the time. It ranks #47/121 across the TECHi coverage universe and #30/75 in Technology. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
54/100
Low confidence
Inputs
59/76
73/100 factual coverage
Universe
#47/121
62/100 peer percentile
Nearest
Hold
1 Day +0.3%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
47/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
81/100
3/5 inputs
Valuation
24/100
6/8 inputs
Risk brake
57/100
7/8 inputs
54
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
73/100 factual coverage, 35% live source health.
TECHi coverage universe
MPWR against fresh TECHi coverage.
Peer ranks are recalculated from the latest live quotes, so the context moves when the underlying data moves.
Universe rank
#47/121
62/100 percentile among scored peers.
Sector rank
#30/75
Technology coverage cohort.
Fresh symbols
121
120 tickers scored in the trailing week.
Freshest pull
Aug 19, 2026
MPWR model as of Aug 18, 2026.
Nearest Signal comps
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
38/100 conf
+0.3%
News sentiment 67/100 / Technical tape 47/100
7 Days
38/100 conf
+1.5%
Analyst/revision signal 81/100 / News sentiment 67/100
15 Days
38/100 conf
+4.1%
Analyst/revision signal 81/100 / Track record validation 86/100
30 Days
43/100 conf
+5.9%
Analyst/revision signal 81/100 / Valuation pressure 24/100
3 Months
43/100 conf
+11.1%
Analyst/revision signal 81/100 / Future value 83/100
6 Months
43/100 conf
+18.8%
Quality trend 75/100 / Analyst/revision signal 81/100
1 Year
45/100 conf
+30.6%
Quality trend 75/100 / Analyst/revision signal 81/100
3 Years
48/100 conf
+69.5%
Future value 83/100 / Quality trend 75/100
5 Years
48/100 conf
+97.7%
Future value 83/100 / Quality trend 75/100
10 Years
48/100 conf
+159.9%
Quality trend 75/100 / Future value 83/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Track record validation
86/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Future value
83/100
2/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Analyst/revision signal
81/100
3/5 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Pressure points
Valuation pressure
24/100
6/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Technical tape
47/100
16/16 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Leadership depth
50/100
0/1 inputs · 4% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
MPWR's nearest horizon is hold at +0.3%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
54
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
59 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
20 Years
100/100+17678.4%
+29.6% CAGR
$7.50 to $1,333
2006-08-21 to 2026-08-18
20-year progress favors long-run compounding context when full daily history is incomplete.
10 Years
100/100+1861.4%
+34.7% CAGR
$67.97 to $1,333
2016-08-17 to 2026-08-18
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
100/100+201.9%
+24.7% CAGR
$441.55 to $1,333
2021-08-18 to 2026-08-18
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
100/100+57.9%
+57.9% CAGR
$844.40 to $1,333
2025-08-18 to 2026-08-18
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
51/100+0.3%
CAGR unavailable
$1,329 to $1,333
2026-07-20 to 2026-08-18
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
32/100-4.9%
CAGR unavailable
$1,402 to $1,333
2026-08-11 to 2026-08-18
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
14/100-5.8%
CAGR unavailable
$1,416 to $1,333
2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
23/26 factors
3 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 73/100
Current 4.98x; cash/debt unavailable
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 44/100
21 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 81/100
Consensus 4.13; upside +37.2%; disagreement +39.4%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 100/100
Target move +37.2%; disagreement +39.4%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 80/100
Future 83/100; analyst 81/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 72/100
1M windows 61/100; 3M windows 84/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 37/100
5D return -4.9%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 76/100
Range position +58.3%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Free cash flow
Quality · 50/100
FCF margin +4.6%; yield +0.2%
Method
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Key margins
Quality · 81/100
Gross +55.2%; operating +28.4%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 91/100
Operating margin +28.4%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 75/100
Quality composite 75/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 70/100
Beta 1.686
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 32/100
90D max drawdown -26%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 58/100
MACD hist 4.74; slope -5.6
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 51/100
RSI 14 46.3; Stoch %K 15.3
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 47/100
20D -3.6%; ATR 6.2%; %B 0.34
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 61/100
Volume 1.1M vs avg 842K
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
5029 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 11/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales 20.24x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
73/100 from 79/100 sourced fields, 35% live source health, and 21 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
9.5% rolling hit rate across 1072 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+23.0%$1,640
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+9.5%$1,460
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-4.0%$1,280
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
52/100 signal · 38/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+0.3%
$1,337
Drivers News sentiment 67/100 · Technical tape 47/100
7 Days
55/100 signal · 38/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+1.5%
$1,353
Drivers Analyst/revision signal 81/100 · News sentiment 67/100
15 Days
59/100 signal · 38/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+4.1%
$1,388
Drivers Analyst/revision signal 81/100 · Track record validation 86/100
30 Days
59/100 signal · 43/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+5.9%
$1,412
Drivers Analyst/revision signal 81/100 · Valuation pressure 24/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
61/100 signal · 43/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+11.1%
$1,481
Drivers Analyst/revision signal 81/100 · Future value 83/100
6 Months
63/100 signal · 43/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+18.8%
$1,584
Drivers Quality trend 75/100 · Analyst/revision signal 81/100
1 Year
63/100 signal · 45/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+30.6%
$1,741
Drivers Quality trend 75/100 · Analyst/revision signal 81/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
66/100 signal · 48/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+69.5%
$2,260
Drivers Future value 83/100 · Quality trend 75/100
5 Years
65/100 signal · 48/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+97.7%
$2,636
Drivers Future value 83/100 · Quality trend 75/100
10 Years
67/100 signal · 48/100 conf · 73/100 facts
+159.9%
$3,465
Drivers Quality trend 75/100 · Future value 83/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
11.9%
218 daily scores · 2.8% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs -5.8% actual
7 Days
9.0%
212 daily scores · 6.0% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.4% vs -4.9% actual
15 Days
13.7%
204 daily scores · 9.8% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.3% vs +4.0% actual
30 Days
7.9%
189 daily scores · 15.8% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.6% vs +4.7% actual
3 Months
9.0%
156 daily scores · 22.8% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.3% vs -10.2% actual
6 Months
0.0%
93 daily scores · 45.8% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.2% vs +14.0% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested10.5%
430 samples · latest 2026-08-17
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested10.2%
605 samples · latest 2026-08-07
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested8.4%
345 samples · latest 2026-07-07
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested10.4%
549 samples · latest 2026-07-28
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for MPWR?
TECHi Signal combines available technical, valuation, fundamental, analyst, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal investment advice?
No. Signal labels are research context, not personalized investment advice or an order recommendation.
How is Signal different from Forecast for MPWR?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets and scenarios. Signal combines that evidence with technical, fundamental, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs.