NASDAQ · TECHNOLOGY · TECHi Signal
Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) Stock Signal
TECHi Signal compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for LITE.
Start here
LITE: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Track record validation (88/100) is the strongest signal; valuation pressure (24/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 34/100 from 62 of 76 available inputs and a 78% freshness factor; 14 inputs are missing, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Analyst disagreement penalty is applied through the confidence model; the Analyst View card owns the published spread. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 10 Years +3172.2% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday +2.1%. Rolling price-history validation is 8.8% across 1078 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Signal
53/100
Low confidence
Inputs
62/76
74/100 factual coverage
Universe
Refreshing
Peer rank unavailable
Nearest
Hold
1 Day 0.0%
Balanced watch
Dashboard view for the current Signal score, confidence, input coverage, and active horizon. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
47/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
59/100
3/5 inputs
Valuation
24/100
5/8 inputs
Risk brake
53/100
8/8 inputs
53
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
74/100 factual coverage, 39% live source health.
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
23/100 conf
0.0%
Technical tape 47/100 / Momentum setup 54/100
7 Days
23/100 conf
+0.2%
Technical tape 47/100 / Momentum setup 54/100
15 Days
23/100 conf
+0.7%
Track record validation 88/100 / Valuation pressure 24/100
30 Days
26/100 conf
+0.8%
Valuation pressure 24/100 / Track record validation 88/100
3 Months
26/100 conf
+1.8%
Valuation pressure 24/100 / Future value 73/100
6 Months
26/100 conf
+3.4%
Valuation pressure 24/100 / Future value 73/100
1 Year
28/100 conf
+5.5%
Valuation pressure 24/100 / Future value 73/100
3 Years
31/100 conf
+20.3%
Future value 73/100 / Quality trend 63/100
5 Years
31/100 conf
+30.5%
Future value 73/100 / Quality trend 63/100
10 Years
31/100 conf
+49.5%
Future value 73/100 / Quality trend 63/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Track record validation
88/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Future value
73/100
5/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Quality trend
63/100
7/9 inputs · 14% dashboard weight
Pressure points
Valuation pressure
24/100
5/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Technical tape
47/100
16/16 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
News sentiment
50/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
LITE's nearest horizon is hold at 0.0%; use a dashboard price alert to catch the next break before the next Signal refresh.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
Dashboard score
53
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
Low confidence
62 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
10 Years
100/100+3172.2%
+41.7% CAGR
$24.51 to $802.01
2016-07-08 to 2026-07-10
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
100/100+870.1%
+57.5% CAGR
$82.67 to $802.01
2021-07-09 to 2026-07-10
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
100/100+765.9%
+767.2% CAGR
$92.62 to $802.01
2025-07-10 to 2026-07-10
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
44/100-2.4%
CAGR unavailable
$821.76 to $802.01
2026-06-09 to 2026-07-10
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
86/100+10.1%
CAGR unavailable
$728.32 to $802.01
2026-07-02 to 2026-07-10
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
63/100+2.1%
CAGR unavailable
$785.77 to $802.01
2026-07-09 to 2026-07-10
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
1 empty progress windows are hidden until enough closes exist.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
23/26 factors
3 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 47/100
Current 1.14x; cash/debt 0.2x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 42/100
20 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 59/100
Consensus 4.09; upside +38.6%; disagreement +99.7%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 100/100
Target move +38.6%; disagreement +99.7%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 65/100
Future 73/100; analyst 59/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Growth pulse
Growth · 100/100
Revenue +90.1%; EPS +427%
Method
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 94/100
1M windows 79/100; 3M windows 97/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 77/100
5D return +10.1%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 83/100
Range position +71.5%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Key margins
Quality · 61/100
Gross +58.9%; operating +13.6%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 54/100
Operating margin +13.6%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 63/100
Quality composite 63/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 77/100
Beta 1.482
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Sentiment
News tone
Sentiment · 50/100
6 headlines; unavailable
Method
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Strategic
Leadership depth
Strategic · 50/100
0 named executives
Method
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 13/100
90D max drawdown -33.6%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 34/100
MACD hist -5.15; slope 5.72
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 71/100
RSI 14 47.5; Stoch %K 53.9
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 47/100
20D -6%; ATR 8.9%; %B 0.4
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 39/100
Volume 3.6M vs avg 5.7M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Validation
History depth
Validation · 100/100
2757 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 11/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales 25.35x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 0 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
74/100 from 82/102 sourced fields, 39% live source health, and 20 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
8.8% rolling hit rate across 1078 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+15.2%$923.68
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+3.3%$828.60
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
-8.8%$731.59
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
50/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 74/100 facts
0.0%
$802.01
Drivers Technical tape 47/100 · Momentum setup 54/100
7 Days
51/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+0.2%
$803.61
Drivers Technical tape 47/100 · Momentum setup 54/100
15 Days
53/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+0.7%
$807.62
Drivers Track record validation 88/100 · Valuation pressure 24/100
30 Days
52/100 signal · 26/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+0.8%
$808.43
Drivers Valuation pressure 24/100 · Track record validation 88/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
53/100 signal · 26/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+1.8%
$816.45
Drivers Valuation pressure 24/100 · Future value 73/100
6 Months
54/100 signal · 26/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+3.4%
$829.28
Drivers Valuation pressure 24/100 · Future value 73/100
1 Year
54/100 signal · 28/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+5.5%
$846.12
Drivers Valuation pressure 24/100 · Future value 73/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
58/100 signal · 31/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+20.3%
$964.82
Drivers Future value 73/100 · Quality trend 63/100
5 Years
58/100 signal · 31/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+30.5%
$1,047
Drivers Future value 73/100 · Quality trend 63/100
10 Years
59/100 signal · 31/100 conf · 74/100 facts
+49.5%
$1,199
Drivers Future value 73/100 · Quality trend 63/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
1 Day
19.6%
219 daily scores · 4.7% avg error
Latest: Hold -0.3% vs +2.1% actual
7 Days
13.1%
213 daily scores · 11.0% avg error
Latest: Hold 0.0% vs -6.5% actual
15 Days
8.3%
205 daily scores · 19.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.4% vs -7.8% actual
30 Days
3.7%
190 daily scores · 36.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.8% vs -11.1% actual
3 Months
0.0%
157 daily scores · 97.4% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.4% vs -10.3% actual
6 Months
0.0%
94 daily scores · 292.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +2.2% vs +104.1% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested16.4%
432 samples · latest 2026-07-09
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested8.5%
608 samples · latest 2026-06-30
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Price-tested2.0%
347 samples · latest 2026-05-27
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Risk brake
Price-tested4.4%
552 samples · latest 2026-06-17
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for LITE?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect LITE's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for LITE?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.