NasdaqGS · Technology · TECHi Signal
MSFT Signal: Positive but selective.
A premium Formula layer for MSFT: technical tape, analyst revisions, valuation, fundamentals, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk compressed into an explainable research stance.
Positive but selective
Positive but selective. Strongest input: analyst/revision signal (80/100). Main brake: future value (54/100). Model confidence is 87/100 from 59 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 10 Years +873.3% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday +5.4%. Rolling price-history validation is 21.2% across 1072 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots. Short windows lean hardest on technicals and tape. Longer windows shift toward quality, valuation, leadership, and future value so the score is not just a chart read.
Technical tape
59/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
10/11 inputs available
Forecast layer
80/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
2/4 inputs available
Valuation
61/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Risk brake
72/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
65
Signal score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
80/100 factual coverage, 48% live-feed health.
Horizon read
Technicals lead the short windows.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
86/100 confidence
+1.4%
Technical tape 59/100 / Momentum setup 61/100 / Risk brake 72/100
7 Days
86/100 confidence
+3.0%
Technical tape 59/100 / Analyst/revision signal 80/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
15 Days
86/100 confidence
+4.7%
Analyst/revision signal 80/100 / Technical tape 59/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
30 Days
86/100 confidence
+7.6%
Analyst/revision signal 80/100 / Quality trend 71/100 / Momentum setup 61/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Analyst/revision signal
80/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
Social/developer traction
77/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
Risk brake
72/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
Pressure points
Future value
54/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
Technical tape
59/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
Momentum setup
61/100
Rewards confirmed trend, but trims extremes near the top of the range.
Source layers
Signal is built from the quote stack, not a single widget.
Jump to the underlying pages when you want to inspect the raw inputs behind the Formula score.
Technicals
59/100
Trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving-average, volume, volatility, and drawdown signals.
Forecast
80/100
Targets, ratings, estimate revisions, scenario math, and analyst dispersion.
Statistics
61/100
Valuation, margins, balance-sheet quality, beta, liquidity, and ratios.
News
67/100
Headline tone, catalysts, market narrative, and editorial research context.
Formula lab
Full score, factors, horizons, scenarios, and validation.
TECHi Signal
Positive but selective
Positive but selective. Strongest input: analyst/revision signal (80/100). Main brake: future value (54/100). Model confidence is 87/100 from 59 of 68 available inputs. Historical progress: 10 Years +873.3% total (100/100 progress score); yesterday +5.4%. Rolling price-history validation is 21.2% across 1072 matured horizon scores; full field-by-field accuracy still needs stored daily snapshots.
65
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
High confidence
59 of 68 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns feeding Signal
20Y to 1D
20 Years
93/100+2681.3%
+18.1% CAGR
$16.19 to $450.24
2006-05-30 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
10 Years
100/100+873.3%
+25.5% CAGR
$46.26 to $450.24
2016-05-27 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
5 Years
81/100+87.9%
+13.4% CAGR
$239.60 to $450.24
2021-05-28 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
1 Year
49/100-1.1%
-1.1% CAGR
$455.03 to $450.24
2025-05-29 to 2026-05-29
Long-run progress uses historical return and annualized compounding where enough data exists.
Last month
65/100+6.3%
CAGR pending
$423.54 to $450.24
2026-04-29 to 2026-05-29
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Last week
77/100+7.4%
CAGR pending
$419.09 to $450.24
2026-05-21 to 2026-05-29
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
Yesterday
84/100+5.4%
CAGR pending
$426.99 to $450.24
2026-05-28 to 2026-05-29
Short-window progress reads the latest tape; it can change materially after the next close.
A-Z factor map
Every scoring input shown
26 factors
Analyst conviction
External view · 80/100
Consensus 4.11; upside +24.5%
Uses consensus, target spread, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Beta risk
Risk · 89/100
Beta 1.093
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 60/100
Current 1.28x; cash/debt 0.5x
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 33/100
90D max drawdown -25.8%
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Earnings accuracy
Fundamental proof · Pending
Positive EPS surprise rate Pending
Grades whether reported earnings have beaten estimates when history is available.
Free cash flow
Quality · 27/100
FCF margin +5%; yield +0.5%
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Growth pulse
Growth · 53/100
Revenue +18.3%; EPS +23.4%
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
History depth
Validation · 100/100
6684 closes analyzed
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Implied upside
External view · 83/100
Target spread +24.5%
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote.
Jump signal
Momentum · 70/100
5D return +7.4%
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
Key margins
Quality · 99/100
Gross +68.3%; operating +46.3%
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Leadership depth
Strategic · 65/100
1 named executives
Adds C-suite coverage for execution visibility.
MACD pressure
Technicals · 70/100
MACD histogram 1.77
Reads whether trend momentum is accelerating or fading.
News tone
Sentiment · 67/100
8 headlines; pending
Headline breadth and sentiment are capped so news does not overpower data.
Operating leverage
Quality · 100/100
Operating margin +46.3%
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
PE and PEG
Valuation · 70/100
Forward PE 21.23x; PEG 1.27x; EV/Sales 9.56x
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Quality trend
Quality · 71/100
Quality composite 71/100
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
RSI balance
Technicals · 50/100
RSI 14 71.7
Rewards constructive momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Social/developer
Strategic · 77/100
Social composite 77/100
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical tape
Technicals · 59/100
20D +10.7%; 60D +11.4%
Blends returns, averages, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 68/100
Future 54/100; analyst 80/100
Combines internal future-value signal with outside target support.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · Pending
Volume 77.2M vs avg Pending
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
52-week position
Momentum · 70/100
Range position +48.4%
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Execution roadmap
Strategic · Pending
0 roadmap items
Uses roadmap impact and horizon breadth for forward-value context.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 46/100
1M windows 44/100; 3M windows 34/100
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 51/100
16 missing fields
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
Composite formula
12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% track record validation, 14% quality, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 6% sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer, 7% risk brake.
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 1 leadership roles, 5 social/developer channels, human-impact lens pending.
Factual coverage
80/100 from 83/99 sourced fields, 48% live feed health, and 16 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
21.2% rolling hit rate across 1072 matured horizon scores. Accuracy is a rolling price-history proxy from available closes. Full field-by-field correctness requires storing daily factor snapshots and grading them after each horizon matures.
Guardrail
Buy/Hold/Sell labels are research stances. Predictive accuracy is shown beside the model and should be read with filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
Bull case
+23.4%$555.59
Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
+14.2%$514.33
Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
+5.5%$474.96
Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Buy, hold, or sell research stance by timeframe
Each row changes the formula weights: short windows lean on technicals and tape; long windows lean on quality, valuation, leadership, and future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
64/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
25.2% hit · 218 scored
+1.4%
$456.54
Basis Technical tape 59/100 · Momentum setup 61/100 · Risk brake 72/100. Intraday-sensitive. Treat as tape risk, not a forecast.
7 Days
65/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
17.9% hit · 212 scored
+3.0%
$463.75
Basis Technical tape 59/100 · Analyst/revision signal 80/100 · Momentum setup 61/100. One-week setup. News and technical reversals can dominate fundamentals.
15 Days
66/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
29.9% hit · 204 scored
+4.7%
$471.40
Basis Analyst/revision signal 80/100 · Technical tape 59/100 · Momentum setup 61/100. Short swing setup. Earnings dates and macro prints can overwhelm the model.
30 Days
67/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
20.1% hit · 189 scored
+7.6%
$484.46
Basis Analyst/revision signal 80/100 · Quality trend 71/100 · Momentum setup 61/100. One-month setup. Best read with earnings calendar and options positioning.
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
66/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
22.4% hit · 156 scored
+11.1%
$500.22
Basis Analyst/revision signal 80/100 · Quality trend 71/100 · Momentum setup 61/100. Quarterly setup. Guidance, margin trend, and estimate revisions matter most.
6 Months
67/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
0.0% hit · 93 scored
+16.8%
$525.88
Basis Analyst/revision signal 80/100 · Quality trend 71/100 · Track record validation 70/100. Two-quarter setup. Watch estimate revisions and balance-sheet risk.
1 Year
66/100 signal · 86/100 conf · 80/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+25.7%
$565.95
Basis Analyst/revision signal 80/100 · Quality trend 71/100 · Track record validation 70/100. Twelve-month research signal. Compare with analyst targets and filings.
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
66/100 signal · 85/100 conf · 80/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+47.4%
$663.65
Basis Quality trend 71/100 · Track record validation 70/100 · Analyst/revision signal 80/100. Multi-year thesis signal. Execution quality matters more than current tape.
5 Years
66/100 signal · 85/100 conf · 80/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+71.1%
$770.36
Basis Quality trend 71/100 · Track record validation 70/100 · Risk brake 72/100. Long-term compounding signal. Needs repeated validation after each filing cycle.
10 Years
66/100 signal · 85/100 conf · 80/100 facts
Pending hit · 0 scored
+102.7%
$912.64
Basis Quality trend 71/100 · Track record validation 70/100 · Risk brake 72/100. Decade thesis signal. This is strategic durability, not a price target.
Model validation
Daily scoring history by horizon and field
The 1-day model is rescored for every available close. Longer horizons are scored when enough future sessions have matured; strategic factors stay pending until daily snapshots are stored.
1 Day
25.2%
218 daily scores · 1.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.5% vs +5.4% actual
7 Days
17.9%
212 daily scores · 3.2% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.8% vs +8.1% actual
15 Days
29.9%
204 daily scores · 4.7% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.1% vs +7.2% actual
30 Days
20.1%
189 daily scores · 7.1% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.4% vs +7.4% actual
3 Months
22.4%
156 daily scores · 11.6% avg error
Latest: Hold +0.4% vs +14.9% actual
6 Months
0.0%
93 daily scores · 22.9% avg error
Latest: Hold +1.6% vs -5.2% actual
1 Year
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
3 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
5 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
10 Years
Pending
0 daily scores · Pending% avg error
Latest: waiting for matured closes
Technical tape
Scored21.6%
430 samples · latest 2026-05-28
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Scored22.6%
605 samples · latest 2026-05-19
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Track record validation
Scored21.1%
345 samples · latest 2026-04-16
Validated from recurring positive-return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings-surprise evidence where available.
Quality trend
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily saved fundamentals snapshots to grade whether margin, ROE/ROA, and cash-flow quality predicted later returns.
Future value
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily saved roadmap and strategic-impact snapshots before historical correctness can be scored.
Valuation pressure
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs historical valuation snapshots so the model can compare multiple compression/expansion against later returns.
Analyst/revision signal
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily analyst target, revision, and earnings-estimate snapshots to score upgrade/downgrade correctness.
News sentiment
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs daily sentiment snapshots; current page has 8 headline inputs but not a stored historical sentiment series.
Leadership depth
PendingPending
0 samples
Leadership is a slow-moving strategic factor; score it after saved profile changes and multi-quarter outcomes.
Social/developer traction
PendingPending
0 samples
Needs saved social/developer follower and engagement snapshots before trend correctness can be graded.
Risk brake
Scored24.4%
549 samples · latest 2026-05-07
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Technical tape
5D/20D/60D returns + SMA 20/50/200 + RSI 14 + MACD + volume + volatility
59/100
Uses the live quote and the shared one-year chart to score trend, stretch, confirmation, and risk.
10/11 inputs available
Momentum setup
Range position + price vs averages + session move + 20D/60D returns + liquidity multiple
61/100
Rewards confirmed trend, but trims extremes near the top of the range.
7/8 inputs available
Track record validation
All-time CAGR + one-year positive windows + EPS surprise hit rate + distance from all-time high + listing depth
70/100
Checks whether the stock has repeatedly converted setups into later closes, not just one live snapshot.
7/8 inputs available
Quality trend
Margins + ROE/ROA + revenue growth + earnings growth + free-cash-flow conversion
71/100
Looks for a business that can convert growth into durable profit, cash flow, and returns.
9/9 inputs available
Future value
Product roadmap + human impact + forward growth estimates + capital runway
54/100
Adds a strategic lens for upcoming products, real-world usefulness, growth support, and balance-sheet runway.
5/7 inputs available
Valuation pressure
Forward/trailing multiple + price/sales + price/book + EV/sales + PEG + FCF yield + target spread
61/100
Higher score means the current multiple has more room relative to growth and targets.
8/8 inputs available
Analyst/revision signal
Consensus score + implied upside + latest EPS surprise + EPS estimate revisions
80/100
Blends outside target data, surprise history, and whether estimates are moving up or down.
2/4 inputs available
News sentiment
Average news sentiment score + dominant label + current headline breadth
67/100
Captures current narrative pressure without letting headlines dominate the model.
1/3 inputs available
Leadership depth
CEO + CFO/COO/CTO/CPO/CMO coverage + named executive depth
65/100
Rewards leadership visibility across finance, operations, technology, product, and go-to-market roles.
1/1 inputs available
Social/developer traction
X/Twitter + GitHub + LinkedIn + YouTube + other public audience signals
77/100
Captures community and developer gravity where verified handles or follower snapshots are available.
1/1 inputs available
Risk brake
Beta + leverage + liquidity + size + volatility + drawdown + history + missing fields
72/100
Penalizes volatility, leverage, weak liquidity, thin history, sparse provider coverage, and recent drawdowns.
8/8 inputs available
Composite = 12% technical tape + 12% momentum + 12% track record validation + 14% quality + 11% future value + 10% valuation + 10% analyst/revision + 6% sentiment + 4% leadership + 2% social/developer traction + 7% risk brake, confidence-adjusted toward neutral when fields are missing.
Scenario prices blend live market fields with roadmap, leadership, human-impact, and social/developer inputs; they are not analyst price targets.
Buy/Hold/Sell is the formula label for the selected horizon, not personal financial advice. Use it beside filings, risk tolerance, and current market conditions.
0 roadmap inputs in the future-value lens.
1 named C-suite roles tracked.
5 social and developer channels available.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for MSFT?
TECHi Signal is the Formula scoring layer for Microsoft Corp (MSFT). It blends technical tape, momentum, valuation, fundamentals, analyst revisions, sentiment, leadership, traction, and risk into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal a buy or sell recommendation?
No. Signal labels are research stances, not personalized financial advice. They show which inputs are constructive, balanced, watch-list, or risk-heavy so readers can decide what to research next.
How do technicals affect MSFT's Signal?
Technicals feed the Formula model through trend, momentum, RSI/MACD, moving averages, volume, volatility, and drawdown inputs. Short horizons weight technicals more heavily than long horizons.
How is Signal different from Forecast for MSFT?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets, ratings, estimates, and scenario math. Signal is TECHi's broader cross-signal model that combines Forecast data with technicals, valuation, fundamentals, catalysts, sentiment, and risk.