TECHi Signal
Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock Rating & Risk Score
The TECHi Forward Model Score compresses current quote, fundamental, technical, analyst, and strategic inputs into one explainable research stance for AMAT. It is not the AI Equity Editorial Score. Dated signal snapshots are not stored, so this page does not publish a later price outcome or a track record.
Prices as of Sep 24, 4:00 PM EDT · Fundamentals checked Sep 24, 6:35 PM EDT · Statements Jul 26, 2026
Market pulse
$474.25
AMAT
-0.03%
Day range
$460.57 - $474.80
Market cap
$376.36B
Volume
4.2M
Last tick
Sep 24, 4:00 PM EDT
52-week position
51%
$196.20 - $739.67
Start here
AMAT: Balanced watch
Balanced watch. Historical setup factor (83/100) is the strongest signal; valuation pressure (43/100) is the main constraint. Model confidence is 40/100 — some inputs are unavailable, so treat this as a directional research screen rather than a forecast. Long-term secular context is tracked separately: 10 Years +1679% total; yesterday 0%. Comparable past signals have verified against subsequent prices 8.5% of the time. It ranks #15/121 across the TECHi coverage universe and #11/66 in Technology. Use the top read for speed, then inspect the Formula lab when you need the full evidence trail.
Model score
56/100
Low confidence
Inputs
67/76
83/100 model input coverage
Universe
Withheld
Rank withheld — insufficient model confidence.
Nearest
Neutral
1 Day: Scenario estimate +0.2%
Balanced watch
This dial is the TECHi Forward Model Score. Confidence and data quality are separate numbers. The full narrative read lives in Start Here; the evidence trail is consolidated below.
Technical tape
53/100
16/16 inputs
Forecast layer
66/100
4/5 inputs
Valuation
43/100
6/8 inputs
Risk brake
67/100
8/8 inputs
56
Model score
Active horizon
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
DATA QUALITY83/100 model input coverage, 48% live source health.
TECHi coverage universe
AMAT against fresh TECHi coverage.
Peer ranks are recalculated from the latest live quotes, so the context moves when the underlying data moves.
Universe rank
Withheld
Rank withheld — insufficient model confidence.
Sector rank
Withheld
Technology coverage cohort.
Fresh symbols
121
120 tickers scored in the trailing week.
Freshest pull
Sep 24, 2026
AMAT model as of Sep 24, 2026.
Nearest Signal comps
Horizon read
The stance changes by timeframe.
These are Formula stances by timeframe, not execution instructions. The full validation grid is below.
1 Day
23/100 conf
Scenario estimate +0.2%
Risk brake 67/100 / Technical tape 53/100
7 Days
23/100 conf
Scenario estimate +0.6%
Analyst/revision signal 66/100 / Risk brake 67/100
15 Days
23/100 conf
Scenario estimate +1.8%
Historical setup factor 83/100 / Quality trend 73/100
30 Days
26/100 conf
Scenario estimate +3.0%
Analyst/revision signal 66/100 / Quality trend 73/100
3 Months
26/100 conf
Neutral, low calibration confidence
Quality trend 73/100 / Analyst/revision signal 66/100
6 Months
26/100 conf
Neutral, low calibration confidence
Quality trend 73/100 / Future value 72/100
1 Year
28/100 conf
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Quality trend 73/100 / Future value 72/100
3 Years
30/100 conf
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Quality trend 73/100 / Future value 72/100
5 Years
30/100 conf
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Quality trend 73/100 / Future value 72/100
10 Years
30/100 conf
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Quality trend 73/100 / Future value 72/100
What moves it
Strongest inputs
Historical setup factor
83/100
7/8 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
Quality trend
73/100
9/9 inputs · 14% dashboard weight
Future value
72/100
5/7 inputs · 11% dashboard weight
Pressure points
Valuation pressure
43/100
6/8 inputs · 10% dashboard weight
Momentum setup
49/100
10/10 inputs · 12% dashboard weight
News sentiment
50/100
1/3 inputs · 6% dashboard weight
Habit loop
Watch the next price trigger, not just the score.
AMAT's nearest research state is Neutral. Scenario estimate +0.2%. That is not a trade instruction.
Formula lab
Factor evidence, scenarios, horizons, and validation.
Evidence lab
Balanced watch
TECHi Forward Model Score
MODEL56
/100
1 day to 10 years + strategic setup
CONFIDENCELow confidence
67 of 76 fields are powering the model.
History progress
Past returns in Signal
Scored windows
20 Years
98/100+3638.6%
+19.9% CAGR
$12.69 to $474.25
2006-09-25 to 2026-09-24
20-year progress favors long-run compounding context when full daily history is incomplete.
10 Years
100/100+1679.0%
+33.4% CAGR
$26.66 to $474.25
2016-09-23 to 2026-09-24
10-year progress tracks decade-scale compounding structure when enough closes exist.
5 Years
100/100+248.3%
+28.4% CAGR
$136.17 to $474.25
2021-09-24 to 2026-09-24
5-year progress prioritizes compounding behavior to make strategic drift visible.
1 Year
100/100+136.7%
+136.9% CAGR
$200.33 to $474.25
2025-09-24 to 2026-09-24
1-year progress blends current return with annualized context for cleaner long-cycle comparison.
Last month
47/100-1.2%
CAGR unavailable
$480.04 to $474.25
2026-08-25 to 2026-09-24
1-month progress reflects recent tape with less sensitivity than daily windows.
Last week
99/100+13.6%
CAGR unavailable
$417.40 to $474.25
2026-09-17 to 2026-09-24
1-week progress tracks short-cycle tape and can rotate meaningfully with each close cluster.
Yesterday
50/1000.0%
CAGR unavailable
$474.38 to $474.25
2026-09-23 to 2026-09-24
1-day progress tracks latest close-to-close momentum from tape.
A-Z factor map
Available scoring inputs
22/26 factors
4 unscored inputs are hidden until the quote stack has verified fields for them.
Balance sheet
Cash runway
Balance sheet · 76/100
Current 2.42x; cash/debt 1.12x
Method
Checks liquidity, leverage, and balance-sheet room.
Coverage
Historical data coverage
Coverage · 100/100
6538 closes analyzed
Method
More closes improve backtest coverage and reduce thin-history risk.
Data coverage
Zero-missing risk
Data coverage · 68/100
7 missing fields
Method
Shows how much the model is relying on available fields versus placeholders.
External view
Analyst conviction
External view · 66/100
Consensus 4.13; upside +35.1%; disagreement +114.3%
Method
Uses consensus, target spread, target disagreement, revisions, and latest EPS surprise.
Implied upside
External view · 97/100
Target move +35.1%; disagreement +114.3%
Method
Measures analyst target room versus the latest quote and flags wide high-low target dispersion.
Forecast
Upside scenarios
Forecast · 70/100
Future 72/100; analyst 66/100
Method
Combines TECHi future-value signal with outside target support.
Growth
Growth pulse
Growth · 67/100
Revenue +24.8%; EPS +42.8%
Method
Compares latest YoY sales and earnings momentum.
Year-over-year proof
Growth · 74/100
1M windows 71/100; 3M windows 92/100
Method
Looks for repeated conversion from past setups into later closes.
Momentum
Jump signal
Momentum · 87/100
5D return +13.6%
Method
Captures the newest short-term price impulse.
52-week position
Momentum · 72/100
Range position +51.2%
Method
Scores trend strength while trimming crowded highs.
Quality
Free cash flow
Quality · 35/100
FCF margin +7.6%; yield +0.6%
Method
Connects profit quality to cash generation and market value.
Key margins
Quality · 83/100
Gross +49.4%; operating +29.6%
Method
Rewards margin breadth before assigning quality confidence.
Operating leverage
Quality · 94/100
Operating margin +29.6%
Method
Shows whether revenue is converting into operating profit.
Quality trend
Quality · 73/100
Quality composite 73/100
Method
Combines margins, returns, growth, and cash conversion.
Risk
Beta risk
Risk · 73/100
Beta 1.597
Method
Lower and steadier beta earns a stronger risk-adjusted score.
Strategic
Social/developer
Strategic · 50/100
Social composite 50/100
Method
Uses verified public channels and developer gravity when available.
Technical risk
Drawdown control
Technical risk · 12/100
90D max drawdown -42.5%
Method
Scores whether recent losses stayed controlled versus the latest peak.
Technicals
MACD pressure
Technicals · 82/100
MACD hist 6.94; slope 0.77
Method
Reads MACD line pressure against its signal line plus histogram direction.
RSI balance
Technicals · 71/100
RSI 14 52.5; Stoch %K 99
Method
Rewards constructive oscillator momentum without extreme overbought stretch.
Technical tape
Technicals · 53/100
20D -1.1%; ATR 4.3%; %B 0.78
Method
Blends returns, SMA/EMA crosses (above), RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ATR, volume, volatility, and drawdown.
Volume confirmation
Technicals · 38/100
Volume 4.2M vs avg 7M
Method
Checks whether price movement is confirmed by trading activity.
Valuation
PE and PEG
Valuation · 43/100
Forward PE unavailable; PEG unavailable; EV/Sales 12.19x
Method
Penalizes expensive multiples unless growth support is visible.
Composite formula
Composite = normalized weighted sum (14% quality trend, 12% technical tape, 12% momentum, 12% historical setup factor, 11% future value, 10% valuation, 10% analyst/revision, 7% risk brake, 6% news sentiment, 4% leadership, 2% social/developer traction), confidence-adjusted toward neutral by input coverage^0.7 x freshness factor x missing-critical-field penalty x analyst-disagreement penalty
Strategic inputs
0 roadmap items, 1 leadership roles, 0 social/developer channels, human-impact lens unavailable.
Factual coverage
83/100 from 102/109 sourced fields, 48% live source health, and 7 missing fields.
Accuracy trail
8.5% rolling hit rate across 1078 scored signals. Hit rate is measured against subsequent price history for each horizon. Treat it as a proxy, not audited performance.
Guardrail
Constructive, Neutral, and Cautious are research states, not buy, hold, or sell instructions. The percent beside a horizon is a scenario estimate. A low directional-match figure is how often a stored price-direction call lined up with a later close. It is not model accuracy.
Bull case
UncalibratedIllustration +19.9% · $568.68
Not a calibrated forecast. The price-direction replay is a separate test and is not this percent. Momentum holds, quality signals stay firm, future-product execution improves, and valuation pressure does not widen.
Base case
UncalibratedIllustration +7.1% · $508.09
Not a calibrated forecast. The price-direction replay is a separate test and is not this percent. Weighted factor model using price, fundamentals, analyst, sentiment, roadmap, leadership, social traction, and risk inputs.
Stress case
UncalibratedIllustration -5.6% · $447.50
Not a calibrated forecast. The price-direction replay is a separate test and is not this percent. Volatility, missing-data, valuation, and balance-sheet brakes are applied to the setup.
Horizon model
Horizon matrix
Timeframe-specific weights: trading windows lean on tape; investor windows lean on quality, valuation, and revisions; strategic windows lean on future value.
Trading windows
1-30 day tape, momentum, and event risk.
1 Day
53/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Scenario estimate +0.2%
$475.20
Price-test error on this horizon is inside the published limit. This is still not a forecast.
Drivers Risk brake 67/100 · Technical tape 53/100
7 Days
54/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Scenario estimate +0.6%
$477.10
Price-test error on this horizon is inside the published limit. This is still not a forecast.
Drivers Analyst/revision signal 66/100 · Risk brake 67/100
15 Days
58/100 signal · 23/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Scenario estimate +1.8%
$482.79
Price-test error on this horizon is inside the published limit. This is still not a forecast.
Drivers Historical setup factor 83/100 · Quality trend 73/100
30 Days
58/100 signal · 26/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Scenario estimate +3.0%
$488.48
Price-test error on this horizon is inside the published limit. This is still not a forecast.
Drivers Analyst/revision signal 66/100 · Quality trend 73/100
Investor windows
Quarterly setup through one-year thesis checks.
3 Months
60/100 signal · 26/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Neutral, low calibration confidence
The precise percent is hidden because the price-test error on this horizon is high.
Drivers Quality trend 73/100 · Analyst/revision signal 66/100
6 Months
61/100 signal · 26/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Neutral, low calibration confidence
The precise percent is hidden because the price-test error on this horizon is high.
Drivers Quality trend 73/100 · Future value 72/100
1 Year
62/100 signal · 28/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Neutral setup. Price testing stops at six months and is not out of sample.
Drivers Quality trend 73/100 · Future value 72/100
Strategic windows
Multi-year durability, leadership, and future value.
3 Years
66/100 signal · 30/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Neutral setup. Price testing stops at six months and is not out of sample.
Drivers Quality trend 73/100 · Future value 72/100
5 Years
66/100 signal · 30/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Neutral setup. Price testing stops at six months and is not out of sample.
Drivers Quality trend 73/100 · Future value 72/100
10 Years
67/100 signal · 30/100 conf · 83/100 facts
Illustrative fundamental scenario — unvalidated
Neutral setup. Price testing stops at six months and is not out of sample.
Drivers Quality trend 73/100 · Future value 72/100
Price-direction backtest
Daily scoring history
Tests whether the model's price-derived direction matched later closes — it does not yet validate the fundamental, analyst, or sentiment factors, which need persisted daily history. Longer and multi-year horizons score once enough closes have matured.
- What this percent is
- A Constructive call counts when the later close rose by more than a small hold band. A Cautious call counts when the later close fell by more than that band. A Neutral call counts when the later close stayed inside the band. The percent is how often that direction matched. It is not a claim that the full model is accurate.
- Observations
- 1078 scored signals across 6 horizons
- Sample period
- 1 Day: 1 trading sessions · 7 Days: 7 trading sessions · 15 Days: 15 trading sessions · 30 Days: 30 trading sessions · 3 Months: 63 trading sessions · 6 Months: 126 trading sessions
- Benchmark
- The same stock’s later close only. This replay is not compared with the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, a sector ETF, an equal-weight sector, a momentum baseline, analyst consensus, or a no-change baseline. Those comparisons are not scored yet.
- Calibration error
- 1 Day 2.9% average absolute error · 7 Days 7.4% average absolute error · 15 Days 11.3% average absolute error · 30 Days 18.6% average absolute error · 3 Months 34.3% average absolute error · 6 Months 72.4% average absolute error
- Directional accuracy
- 8.5% of scored price-direction calls matched the later close
- False-positive rate
- Not scored yet. This history has no Constructive calls to measure.
- Outcome by horizon
- 1 Day 20.1% on 219 observations · 7 Days 9.9% on 213 observations · 15 Days 7.8% on 205 observations · 30 Days 3.7% on 190 observations · 3 Months 1.9% on 157 observations · 6 Months 0.0% on 94 observations
- Sector
- Technology. This names the company sector. It is not a sector performance breakdown.
- Dates
- Methodology reviewed May 28, 2026. Validation dataset updated September 23, 2026. Model version v1.0. These are three different dates.
- Out of sample
- These figures replay price-derived factors on stored daily closes for this symbol. They are not a walk-forward test, a holdout period, or a separate out-of-sample test. They do not score fundamentals, analyst revisions, or sentiment, and they do not adjust for survivorship or look-ahead bias.
1 Day
Directional match
20.1%
219 daily scores · 2.9% avg error
Latest: Neutral +0.2% vs 0.0% actual
7 Days
Directional match
9.9%
213 daily scores · 7.4% avg error
Latest: Cautious -1.5% vs +12.6% actual
15 Days
Directional match
7.8%
205 daily scores · 11.3% avg error
Latest: Neutral -0.9% vs +8.2% actual
30 Days
Directional match
3.7%
190 daily scores · 18.6% avg error
Latest: Neutral +0.9% vs -13.4% actual
3 Months
Directional match
1.9%
157 daily scores · 34.3% avg error
Latest: Neutral +3.1% vs -28.9% actual
6 Months
Directional match
0.0%
94 daily scores · 72.4% avg error
Latest: Neutral +2.1% vs +28.7% actual
4 horizon lanes are hidden until enough future closes mature.
7 validations appear once TECHi has tracked enough daily factor history for them.
Technical tape
Price-tested15.1%
432 samples · latest 2026-09-23
Validated daily from historical price tape: SMA, RSI, MACD, volatility, drawdown, and short returns.
Momentum setup
Price-tested7.3%
608 samples · latest 2026-09-15
Validated from rolling forward returns after trend and range-position signals.
Historical setup factor
Price-tested2.9%
347 samples · latest 2026-08-12
This lane is a setup score from return windows, long-run CAGR, and earnings surprises. It is not the price-tested validation percent.
Risk brake
Price-tested4.7%
552 samples · latest 2026-09-02
Validated as a price-history proxy: volatility, drawdown, and risk brakes are checked against later downside/upside behavior.
Frequently asked
Common questions.
What is TECHi Signal for AMAT?
TECHi Signal combines available technical, valuation, fundamental, analyst, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs for Applied Materials (AMAT) into an explainable research stance.
Is TECHi Signal investment advice?
No. Signal labels are research context, not personalized investment advice or an order recommendation.
How is Signal different from Forecast for AMAT?
Forecast focuses on analyst targets and scenarios. Signal combines that evidence with technical, fundamental, sentiment, catalyst, and risk inputs.
How to use this page
Use this to answer the core investor question for this tab.
Best for Focused evidence that complements the main quote dashboard.
Weak when Provider data is delayed, sparse, or not yet confirmed by filings.
Street view
Buy
Target $640.89 · +35.14%i
Companies A–Z
Companies that share this ticker’s letter. Other letters open in the stocks directory.
A
27 companies- AAPLApple
- ABBVAbbVie
- ABNBAirbnb
- ABTAbbott Laboratories
- ACLSAxcelis Technologies
- ADBEAdobe
- ADIAnalog Devices
- AEHRAehr Test Systems
- AIC3.ai
- AIQGlobal X Artificial Intelligence ETF
- ALABAstera Labs
- AMATApplied Materials
- AMDAdvanced Micro Devices
- AMGNAmgen
- AMZNAmazon.com
- ANETArista Networks
- APHAmphenol
- APLDApplied Digital
- APPAppLovin
- ARKKARK Innovation ETF
- ARMArm Holdings
- ARTYiShares Future AI & Tech ETF
- ASMLASML Holding
- AURAurora Innovation
- AVAVAeroVironment
- AVGOBroadcom
- AXPAmerican Express